Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. May. 20, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $90.7000 (2.82%) ($87.3000 - $90.8000) on Wed. May. 20, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.73% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $90.7000(2.82%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 4.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(65%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)    QQQ(47%)    VT(45%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.865% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.865% (StdDev 1.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $88.58(2.39%)
10 Day Moving Average   $87.76(3.35%)
20 Day Moving Average   $85.08(6.61%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   14%
Market Cap   $243.323b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.75% (three month std-dev: 1.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 39 Average positive next day return: 1.15%(49%) Average negative next day return: -1%(51%) Sample size 39 Average positive next three day return: 1.96%(54%) Average negative next three day return: -2.85%(46%) Sample size 39 Average positive next weekly return: 2.33%(51%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.24%(49%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150620

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2015	88.24	85.08	87.76	88.58	88.17	88.43	90.7(2.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	76	10	41	179	29.81	69%	-0.18	50.9	1.73%	0	1.8	78	0
2	May_19_2015	88.4	84.63	86.73	87.94	87.87	87.47	88.21(1.26%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	29	-30	-9	142	20.73	67%	-0.2	45.7	1.7%	0	1.2	69	0
3	May_18_2015	88.58	84.33	85.91	87.65	87.84	87.91	87.11(-1.53%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	24	10	-8	119	13.49	67%	-0.21	40.4	1.69%	0	1	55	0
4	May_15_2015	88.77	84.08	85.3	87.58	87.73	88.27	88.46(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	49	50	26	117	13.42	62%	-0.01	37.2	1.69%	0	1.6	59	0
5	May_14_2015	88.78	83.74	84.57	87.3	87.3	87.78	88.4(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	44	40	26	98	12.09	62%	-0.2	32.6	1.71%	0	1.8	60	0

6	May_13_2015	88.96	83.49	83.84	86.82	87.17	87.19	87.53(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	46	10	32	87	19.02	64%	-0.21	26.2	1.72%	0	1.7	65	0
7	May_12_2015	89.15	83.32	83.29	85.31	87.11	86.83	86.77(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	44	40	40	57	16.08	64%	-0.26	7.8	1.74%	0	1.5	64	0
8	May_11_2015	89.38	83.2	83.06	83.86	85.39	87.15	86.72(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	39	200	41	34	19.78	64%	-0.27	-4.7	1.75%	0	1.7	62	0
9	May_8_2015	89.62	83.05	82.82	82.64	83.61	87.38	87.06(1.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.2	130	350	153	61	30.14	64%	-0.27	-16.5	1.74%	0	2	64	0
10	May_7_2015	89.86	82.9	82.5	81.46	81.95	83.63	86(7.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	122	160	149	41	69.45	64%	-0.27	-29.2	1.74%	0	1.6	62	0

11	May_6_2015	90.1	82.87	82.09	80.52	80.42	79.83	80(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-40	-60	-31	-68	24.95	55%	-0.29	-35.1	1.47%	0	-1.5	34	0
12	May_5_2015	90.36	83.14	82.32	81.01	80.83	80.26	79.54(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-66	-60	-61	-79	32.66	50%	-0.3	-24.9	1.48%	0	-2	30	0
13	May_4_2015	90.63	83.31	82.64	82.12	81.7	81	80.59(-0.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-49	-80	-47	-54	21.55	50%	-0.28	-13	1.53%	0	-1.7	31	0
14	May_1_2015	90.88	83.39	82.83	82.98	82.73	81.4	81.17(-0.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-60	-120	-64	-48	17.91	50%	-0.27	-6	1.51%	0	-1.5	38	0
15	Apr_30_2015	91.13	83.47	82.94	83.66	83.78	82.39	81.29(-1.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-63	-110	-69	-44	14.21	50%	-0.25	0.6	1.52%	0	-1.5	37	0

16	Apr_29_2015	91.36	83.54	83.22	83.86	84.32	84.07	82.45(-3.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-31	-0	-30	-32	21.1	39%	-0.29	0	1.52%	0	-0.8	34	0
17	Apr_28_2015	91.63	83.58	83.44	83.78	84.07	85.17	85.08(0.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	24	100	35	-8	11.11	38%	-0.22	-2.4	1.83%	0	1.1	47	0
18	Apr_27_2015	91.83	83.52	83.39	83.24	83.39	84.57	84.9(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	45	100	59	1	17.43	38%	-0.26	-15	1.91%	0	1	61	0
19	Apr_24_2015	92.07	83.49	83.31	82.7	82.71	82.97	84.57(2.78%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	22	20	33	-13	21.06	38%	-0.28	-29.1	1.9%	0	0.8	61	0
20	Apr_23_2015	92.33	83.46	83.28	82.17	82.3	82.22	82.28(0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-18	-0	-12	-36	11.48	34%	-0.31	-45.9	1.87%	0	-0.9	52	0

21	Apr_22_2015	92.62	83.53	83.65	82.53	82.38	82.44	82.05(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-15	-0	-14	-17	13.32	34%	-0.31	-43.1	1.87%	0	-1.2	51	0
22	Apr_21_2015	92.91	83.62	83.99	83.05	82.96	82.38	82.42(0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-10	-50	-14	2	10.06	39%	-0.27	-35.8	1.87%	0	-1	48	0
23	Apr_20_2015	93.16	83.72	83.99	83.57	83.52	82.31	82.2(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-36	-100	-46	-6	13.47	43%	-0.33	-24.8	1.93%	0	-1.3	44	0
24	Apr_17_2015	93.47	83.87	84.01	83.98	84.12	83.54	81.9(-2.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-35	-40	-45	-6	22.79	43%	-0.13	-2.8	1.98%	0	-1.6	40	0
25	Apr_16_2015	93.59	84.06	84.09	84.52	84.69	84.72	84.06(-0.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-3	10	-8	14	12.05	45%		24.5	1.97%	0	0	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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