Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 8, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $85.3900 (3.87%) ($83.0700 - $85.5400) on Wed. Apr. 8, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.01% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $85.3900(3.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(65%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)    QQQ(47%)    VT(45%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.005% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.005% (StdDev 2.01%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $82.81(3.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $83.35(2.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $83.57(2.18%)
To recent high   -18.7%
To recent low   4.7%
Market Cap   $229.078b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 1.5% (three month std-dev: 2.01%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 0.34%(43%) Average negative next day return: -0.89%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 0.83%(43%) Average negative next three day return: -1.04%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 1.06%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.03%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150508

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_8_2015	95.28	83.57	83.35	82.81	82.74	83.29	85.39(3.87%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.1	25	40	39	-17	26.16	46%	-0.28	-30	2.01%	0	1.5	52	INF
2	Apr_7_2015	95.55	83.44	83.15	82.38	82.38	82.13	82.21(0.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-21	-20	-11	-50	9.44	41%	-0.35	-36.9	1.98%	0	-1	36	INF
3	Apr_6_2015	95.89	83.47	83.35	82.72	82.73	82.19	81.82(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-33	-50	-27	-50	12.81	44%	-0.56	-35.3	1.98%	0	-1.4	38	INF
4	Apr_2_2015	96.43	83.6	83.69	83.27	83.34	82.63	82.28(-0.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-28	-60	-28	-29	19.87	42%	-0.38	-24.1	2.01%	0	-1.1	56	INF
5	Apr_1_2015	96.8	83.79	84.04	83.65	83.87	83.27	82.36(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-22	-40	-26	-9	14.9	42%	-0.35	-12.9	2.01%	0	-1.2	56	INF

6	Mar_31_2015	97.14	83.94	84.27	83.93	84.1	84.05	83.24(-0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-6	0	-11	11	11.81	42%	-0.38	-9.2	2.02%	0	-0.5	60	INF
7	Mar_30_2015	97.51	83.94	84.41	84.01	84.12	84.46	83.9(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	14	30	10	27	10.02	42%	-0.33	-18.5	2.03%	0	0	56	INF
8	Mar_27_2015	97.83	83.88	84.43	84.08	83.93	84.15	84.58(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	13	10	7	32	9.7	42%	-0.29	-21.9	2.01%	0	0.5	63	INF
9	Mar_26_2015	98.11	83.9	84.18	84.2	84.02	83.77	84.17(0.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-2	-30	-10	21	12.21	42%	-0.26	-23.9	2.03%	0	0.2	48	INF
10	Mar_25_2015	98.37	83.95	83.98	84.51	84.52	83.71	83.75(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-15	-70	-23	9	13.51	42%	-0.23	-21.4	2.03%	0	-0.1	39	INF

11	Mar_24_2015	98.6	84.06	83.83	84.68	85.03	84.26	83.63(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-24	-50	-31	-2	14.55	42%	-0.19	-20.1	2.04%	0	-0.3	42	INF
12	Mar_23_2015	98.79	84.11	83.77	84.86	85.2	85.33	84.25(-1.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-3	20	-9	15	11.18	39%	-0.15	-23.4	2.04%	0	0.1	60	INF
13	Mar_20_2015	98.94	84.16	83.6	84.81	85.07	85.79	85.2(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	32	70	34	26	21.18	39%	-0.14	-33.3	2.06%	0	0.7	53	INF
14	Mar_19_2015	99.08	84.22	83.49	84.14	84.43	85.08	85.74(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	34	60	41	14	30.45	39%	-0.13	-44.8	2.08%	0	0.9	51	INF
15	Mar_18_2015	99.21	84.25	83.48	83.37	83.4	84.35	84.59(0.11%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	20	80	28	-4	35.66	39%	-0.16	-54	2.07%	0	0.2	47	INF

16	Mar_17_2015	99.37	84.34	83.53	82.85	82.82	83.78	84.5(0.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	30	80	43	-10	17.64	43%	-0.14	-61.8	2.07%	0	0.1	44	INF
17	Mar_16_2015	99.51	84.45	83.25	82.55	82.34	82.44	84(2.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	8	0	22	-34	16.91	43%	-0.12	-63.4	2.12%	0	-0.3	48	INF
18	Mar_13_2015	99.63	84.68	83.23	82.25	82.01	81.85	81.86(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-32	-20	-21	-63	12.66	40%	-0.13	-53.1	2.07%	0	-1.4	40	INF
19	Mar_12_2015	99.76	84.95	83.56	82.76	82.41	82.25	81.92(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-29	-30	-19	-58	11.23	40%	-0.1	-48.1	2.09%	0	-1.5	37	INF
20	Mar_11_2015	99.86	85.17	83.91	83.6	83.15	82.18	81.99(-1.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-34	-100	-28	-51	12.77	40%	-0.09	-48.6	2.09%	0	-1.7	37	INF

21	Mar_10_2015	99.95	85.44	84.33	84.3	83.93	82.57	82.97(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-39	-130	-37	-44	13.82	38%	-0.06	-50	2.1%	0	-1.4	39	INF
22	Mar_9_2015	100.01	85.6	84.51	84.02	84.17	84.11	82.53(-2.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-33	0	-27	-51	17.62	38%	-0.06	-69.3	2.13%	0	-1.9	38	INF
23	Mar_6_2015	100.07	85.78	84.82	84.31	83.87	85.29	84.4(-1.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	10	100	25	-36	10.67	37%	-0.04	-82.1	2.14%	0	-0.9	36	INF
24	Mar_5_2015	100.11	85.91	85.04	84.46	83.72	84.24	86.1(0.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	25	20	43	-28	18.51	37%	0	-90	2.15%	0	0.1	47	INF
25	Mar_4_2015	100.11	86.08	85.08	84.31	83.75	82.45	85.49(4.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-37	-130	-30	-59	36.61	37%		-101	2.15%	0	-0.3	49	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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