Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 13, 2016

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $187.4300 (0.95%) ($185.3100 - $187.7400) on Wed. Jul. 13, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.13% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $187.4300(0.95%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB advances 2.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Growth stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLRE(77%)    SPLV(68%)    SDY(65%)    XLU(64%)    IWD(62%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.565% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-16%)    VIXM(-10%)    TLT(-7%)    GDXJ(-7%)    IBUY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.565% (StdDev 1.13%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $184.69(1.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $182.91(2.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $178.88(4.78%)
To recent high   -1.9%
To recent low   10.5%
Market Cap   $26.379b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 2.62% (three month std-dev: 1.13%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 0.75%(62%) Average negative next day return: -0.97%(38%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 0.98%(44%) Average negative next three day return: -1.42%(56%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 1.48%(48%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.38%(52%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160813

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_13_2016	180.91	178.88	182.91	184.69	184.85	185.71	187.43(0.95%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	120	40	99	182	0.71	44%	0.1	80.2	1.13%	0	1.8	77	0
2	Jul_12_2016	180.73	178.01	181.95	183.58	183.42	184.57	185.67(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	75	40	48	154	0.74	44%	0.08	76.3	1.14%	0	1.7	75	0
3	Jul_11_2016	180.58	177.25	180.9	183.03	182.77	183.99	184.55(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	119	40	101	173	0.68	42%	0.08	76.1	1.13%	0	1.6	76	0
4	Jul_8_2016	180.44	176.51	179.74	182.26	182.12	182.27	184.94(2.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	78	0	57	140	1.1	42%	0.09	70.6	1.16%	0	1.9	77	0
5	Jul_7_2016	180.27	175.76	178.7	181.35	181.44	181.55	180.85(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	10	0	110	0.55	39%	0.08	62.9	1.13%	0	1.3	69	0

6	Jul_6_2016	180.13	175.2	178.11	180.81	180.95	181.96	181.88(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	40	59	134	0.73	39%	0.09	51.5	1.13%	0	1.7	76	0
7	Jul_5_2016	179.96	174.58	177.41	180.02	180.06	181.33	182.91(1.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	129	50	118	160	0.69	39%	0.1	37.1	1.13%	0	2.2	83	0
8	Jul_1_2016	179.78	173.92	176.49	178.43	178.54	179.94	180.72(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	126	60	119	147	0.79	37%	0.11	16.2	1.11%	0	2	78	0
9	Jun_30_2016	179.58	173.51	175.74	176.8	176.68	178.79	180.39(1.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	136	80	135	137	0.81	37%	0.09	-6.9	1.1%	0	2.3	78	0
10	Jun_29_2016	179.42	173.26	175.08	175.67	174.92	177.14	178.15(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	144	80	146	136	0.83	37%	0.1	-26.5	1.09%	0	1.8	75	0

11	Jun_28_2016	179.24	173.13	174.51	175.03	174.18	174.56	177.91(1.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	97	0	92	112	1.07	37%	0.08	-37	1.11%	0	1.7	76	0
12	Jun_27_2016	179.1	173.17	173.72	174.46	174.08	172.71	174.98(1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-31	-60	-56	46	1.08	34%	0.05	-45.6	1.09%	0	0.7	70	0
13	Jun_24_2016	179.01	173.38	173.3	174.26	174.39	173.79	172.57(-1.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-66	-20	-98	30	1.08	31%	0.01	-43	1.08%	0	-0.3	62	0
14	Jun_23_2016	178.99	173.72	173.09	174.45	175.09	175.44	174.73(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	48	20	37	79	0.55	33%	0.03	-37.2	1.08%	0	0.3	53	0
15	Jun_22_2016	178.94	173.98	172.64	174.34	174.55	174.99	174.95(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	39	20	32	58	0.62	33%	0.04	-36.4	1.08%	0	0.3	42	0

16	Jun_21_2016	178.87	174.2	172.11	173.88	174	174.73	175.07(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	56	30	61	42	0.69	33%	0.02	-42.7	1.08%	0	0.2	42	0
17	Jun_20_2016	178.84	174.42	171.57	172.86	173.2	174.12	174(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	61	40	80	2	0.93	33%	0.02	-55.9	1.08%	0	-0.1	31	0
18	Jun_17_2016	178.81	174.72	171.17	172.19	172.01	173.27	173.5(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	40	50	68	-43	1.08	37%	0.01	-63.7	1.09%	0	-0.3	29	0
19	Jun_16_2016	178.79	174.99	171.11	171.5	171.44	172.28	174.2(0.92%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	60	30	100	-60	0.91	37%	-0.01	-75.5	1.12%	0	-0.2	30	0
20	Jun_15_2016	178.8	175.35	171.25	170.71	170.59	170.74	172.61(1.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-11	0	25	-118	1.28	37%	-0.03	-82.3	1.11%	0	-0.6	23	0

21	Jun_14_2016	178.85	175.91	171.57	170.11	170.16	170.59	170(-0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-24	20	17	-145	0.92	34%	-0.03	-86.9	1.1%	0	-1.2	16	0
22	Jun_13_2016	178.9	176.76	172.5	170.07	169.8	170.44	170.63(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-7	20	38	-141	0.68	34%	-0.02	-82.8	1.1%	0	-1.1	16	0
23	Jun_10_2016	178.94	177.53	173.4	169.99	169.62	169.73	170.06(-0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-34	-0	6	-154	0.81	38%	-0.01	-83.4	1.13%	0	-1.4	13	0
24	Jun_9_2016	178.95	178.4	174.37	170.66	170.08	169.17	170.25(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-94	-50	-67	-173	0.82	38%	-0.01	-78.8	1.13%	0	-1.5	21	0
25	Jun_8_2016	178.96	179.25	175.41	171.92	171.54	169.52	169.61(-0.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-141	-90	-127	-182	0.95	38%		-73.2	1.13%	0	-1.8	14	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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