Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ AVB: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Sep. 30, 2015

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $174.8200 (1.16%) ($172.8100 - $174.8500) on Wed. Sep. 30, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.23% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $174.8200(1.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SDY(64%)    XLU(62%)    IWD(61%)    IVE(59%)    VYM(59%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.615% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-14%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-8%)    GDXJ(-7%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.615% (StdDev 1.23%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $170.97(2.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $171.01(2.23%)
20 Day Moving Average   $167.66(4.27%)
To recent high   -2.7%
To recent low   9.4%
Market Cap   $24.605b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 2.51% (three month std-dev: 1.23%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0.7%(20%) Average negative next day return: -0.98%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 9.73%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -3.7%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 8.25%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.59%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151030

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_30_2015	167.62	167.66	171.01	170.97	170.8	172.19	174.82(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	147	50	151	134	1.1	47%	0.06	31.5	1.23%	0	1.7	73	INF
2	Sep_29_2015	167.52	167	170.37	170.29	169.75	169.26	172.81(3.33%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	16	-30	-6	82	1.23	45%	0.05	27.9	1.23%	0	1.5	73	INF
3	Sep_28_2015	167.44	166.59	169.79	169.83	169.93	169.41	167.24(-2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-29	-20	-62	69	0.93	40%	-0.01	26.1	1.18%	0	0.2	62	INF
4	Sep_25_2015	167.45	166.64	169.63	170.85	170.61	170.23	170.65(0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	17	-20	-18	122	0.56	42%	0.03	28.1	1.15%	0	1.1	73	INF
5	Sep_24_2015	167.4	166.51	169.17	170.88	170.94	170.44	169.34(-1.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	12	-20	-27	130	0.79	42%	0.04	18.4	1.15%	0	0.8	63	INF

6	Sep_23_2015	167.34	166.35	168.49	170.99	171.03	170.98	171.41(0.52%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	31	-0	-6	142	0.53	42%	0.05	5.5	1.14%	0	1.4	68	INF
7	Sep_22_2015	167.26	165.89	167.49	170.42	170.72	171.44	170.52(-1.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	71	30	44	152	0.59	42%	0.01	-20.7	1.15%	0	1.3	69	INF
8	Sep_21_2015	167.25	165.61	166.72	169.72	169.94	171.07	172.32(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	115	50	100	158	0.43	42%	0.03	-44.8	1.15%	0	2	62	INF
9	Sep_18_2015	167.2	165.59	165.53	168.23	168.49	169.99	170.83(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	96	70	92	107	1.12	40%	0.04	-60.5	1.16%	0	1.5	51	INF
10	Sep_17_2015	167.13	165.83	164.72	167.22	167.33	168.8	169.85(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	122	60	133	90	0.89	42%	0.01	-55.7	1.16%	0	1	50	INF

11	Sep_16_2015	167.11	166.15	164	165.62	165.86	166.99	168.58(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	88	50	103	41	0.53	42%	-0.02	-55.1	1.17%	0	0.5	52	INF
12	Sep_15_2015	167.14	166.63	163.28	164.13	164.35	165.86	167.04(1.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	58	70	76	2	0.49	42%	-0.03	-51.8	1.17%	0	0.1	58	INF
13	Sep_14_2015	167.19	167.14	163.02	163.28	163.61	164.74	164.85(-0.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	84	50	112	-1	0.85	40%	-0.04	-47.9	1.16%	0	-0.4	49	INF
14	Sep_11_2015	167.25	167.72	163.33	162.41	162.83	162.83	165.77(2.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	16	10	40	-58	1.25	40%	-0.04	-47.6	1.16%	0	-0.3	38	INF
15	Sep_10_2015	167.31	168.21	163.54	161.88	162.11	162.47	161.86(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-53	20	-29	-124	0.91	35%	-0.05	-46.5	1.13%	0	-0.9	29	INF

16	Sep_9_2015	167.4	168.9	163.99	162.14	162.51	162.83	161.13(-1.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	3	20	45	-124	0.83	35%	-0.05	-44.1	1.13%	0	-1.2	27	INF
17	Sep_8_2015	167.48	169.62	164.18	162.28	162.55	161.75	162.77(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-68	-30	-23	-201	0.68	35%	-0.04	-43.2	1.12%	0	-1	27	INF
18	Sep_4_2015	167.54	170.19	164.46	162.73	162.5	162.19	160.53(-1.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-154	-20	-114	-273	0.6	32%	-0.05	-44.1	1.1%	0	-1.5	25	INF
19	Sep_3_2015	167.63	170.9	165.72	164.37	164.09	163.34	163.13(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-73	-40	-22	-225	0.45	31%	-0.03	-38.8	1.08%	0	-1.3	30	INF
20	Sep_2_2015	167.68	171.42	167.06	165.47	165.34	162.8	163.13(0.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-159	-110	-131	-242	0.74	29%	-0.04	-34.9	1.12%	0	-1.5	32	INF

21	Sep_1_2015	167.74	171.93	168.51	166.14	166.59	164.83	161.82(-1.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-179	-70	-159	-237	0.74	29%	-0.04	-32.2	1.13%	0	-1.9	31	INF
22	Aug_31_2015	167.8	172.53	170.27	166.28	167.45	167.88	165.06(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-50	40	-11	-167	1.75	31%	-0.02	-33.1	1.12%	0	-1.6	35	INF
23	Aug_28_2015	167.83	173.01	171.61	166.37	167.03	168.35	168.71(0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	2	70	48	-135	0.52	34%	-0.01	-29.8	1.09%	0	-1	43	INF
24	Aug_27_2015	167.84	173.22	172.44	167.32	167.14	167.02	168.64(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-40	-10	-8	-135	0.9	37%	-0.03	-21.6	1.09%	0	-1.1	43	INF
25	Aug_26_2015	167.89	173.39	173.2	169.07	168.93	165.71	166.49(2.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-178	-140	-181	-167	0.98	35%		-7.8	1.09%	0	-1.6	41	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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