Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Aug. 5, 2015

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $172.3800 (-0.16%) ($171.5100 - $173.5700) on Wed. Aug. 5, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $172.3800(-0.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB advances 1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLU(63%)    VYM(60%)    IVE(59%)    SPY(56%)    XLP(56%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-12%)    TLT(-8%)    GDXJ(-6%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $172.51(-0.08%)
10 Day Moving Average   $171.05(0.78%)
20 Day Moving Average   $169.85(1.49%)
To recent high   -0.9%
To recent low   8.4%
Market Cap   $24.261b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 1.16% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0.84%(60%) Average negative next day return: -0.74%(40%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.4%(60%) Average negative next three day return: -0.93%(40%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 2.35%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.01%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150905

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_5_2015	168.16	169.85	171.05	172.51	173.01	172.98	172.38(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	20	10	5	65	0.47	44%	-0.01	94	0.93%	0	1.3	59	0
2	Aug_4_2015	168.17	169.56	170.81	172.16	172.52	173.26	172.65(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	40	42	73	0.51	44%	-0.01	108.8	1.01%	0	1.6	64	0
3	Aug_3_2015	168.18	169.29	170.41	171.61	171.7	173.03	173.97(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	95	60	98	87	0.64	44%	0.02	116.1	1.01%	0	2.4	71	0
4	Jul_31_2015	168.14	168.84	169.91	170.54	170.91	171.77	172.34(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	95	40	101	75	0.73	48%	0.01	129	1.02%	0	2.1	70	0
5	Jul_30_2015	168.13	168.42	169.58	169.92	170.05	170.37	171.23(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	37	20	35	42	0.61	45%	0.02	120.8	1.04%	0	1.6	68	0

6	Jul_29_2015	168.09	168.02	169.41	169.39	169.55	170.06	170.62(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	29	20	26	38	0.82	42%	0.02	102.5	1.07%	0	1.3	69	0
7	Jul_28_2015	168.05	167.51	169.21	169.27	169.25	169.72	169.89(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	39	20	37	46	0.77	42%	0.02	74.5	1.1%	0	0.9	67	0
8	Jul_27_2015	168.02	167	169.04	169.02	169.14	169.04	168.61(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	15	-0	9	33	0.57	42%	0.02	52.2	1.1%	0	0.5	57	0
9	Jul_24_2015	167.98	166.68	168.94	169.18	169.2	168.78	169.27(0.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-10	-20	-23	31	0.44	42%	0	46.1	1.1%	0	0.8	70	0
10	Jul_23_2015	167.98	166.3	168.75	169.16	169.27	169.24	168.57(-0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-6	0	-22	42	0.46	42%	0	35.5	1.1%	0	0.7	72	0

11	Jul_22_2015	167.98	165.99	168.58	169.42	169.36	169.61	170.03(0.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	33	10	19	76	0.46	42%	0.01	32	1.09%	0	1.2	82	0
12	Jul_21_2015	167.97	165.62	168.25	169.14	169.33	169.29	168.61(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	37	0	18	93	0.59	42%	-0.01	28.1	1.09%	0	0.9	85	0
13	Jul_20_2015	167.98	165.42	168.13	169.05	169.01	169.11	169.4(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	30	0	2	112	0.54	42%	0.01	31.4	1.09%	0	1.2	90	0
14	Jul_17_2015	167.97	165.21	167.7	168.64	168.66	169.38	169.21(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	59	30	35	130	0.46	42%	0.02	33.9	1.09%	0	1.3	72	0
15	Jul_16_2015	167.94	165.12	167.19	168.26	168.34	168.91	169.84(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	86	30	66	145	0.4	42%	0.01	39.6	1.09%	0	1.6	75	0

16	Jul_15_2015	167.92	164.93	166.51	167.63	167.8	167.95	168.62(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	42	10	16	119	0.42	42%	0	44.8	1.09%	0	1.3	69	0
17	Jul_14_2015	167.92	164.7	165.68	167.24	167.66	167.78	168.19(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	36	10	13	103	0.67	42%	-0.03	49.4	1.1%	0	1.3	66	0
18	Jul_13_2015	167.97	164.42	164.8	167.08	167.45	167.66	167.36(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	37	20	20	88	0.71	42%	-0.02	53.8	1.1%	0	1.1	55	0
19	Jul_10_2015	168.01	164.17	164.25	166.6	167.09	167.55	167.3(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	52	30	43	77	0.64	42%	-0.01	53.2	1.11%	0	1.2	52	0
20	Jul_9_2015	168.03	163.94	163.65	165.94	166.29	167.24	166.68(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	57	50	59	52	0.53	39%	-0.04	51.7	1.11%	0	1.1	43	0

21	Jul_8_2015	168.1	163.67	163.19	165.19	165.42	166.63	166.65(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	90	60	105	44	0.57	39%	-0.02	44.2	1.15%	0	1.2	48	0
22	Jul_7_2015	168.14	163.37	162.75	163.84	164.09	165.35	167.43(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	85	60	108	16	0.64	37%	0	19.9	1.16%	0	1.7	55	0
23	Jul_6_2015	168.14	163.04	162.42	162.17	162.48	164.22	164.95(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	60	80	86	-17	0.53	34%	-0.07	-13.7	1.16%	0	0.8	55	0
24	Jul_2_2015	168.26	162.84	162.45	161.56	161.69	162.84	163.98(0.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	85	50	116	-8	0.56	34%	-0.04	-32.8	1.16%	0	0.5	54	0
25	Jul_1_2015	168.32	162.69	162.81	161.06	160.91	160.75	162.95(1.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-9	-10	4	-47	0.78	34%		-52.6	1.17%	0	0.1	51	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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