Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ AVB: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Jan. 7, 2015

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $171.1600 (1.16%) ($169.0000 - $171.5100) on Wed. Jan. 7, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $171.1600(1.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLU(63%)    IVE(59%)    VYM(59%)    SPY(56%)    XLP(56%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-12%)    TLT(-7%)    GDXJ(-5%)    IGOV(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $167.3(2.31%)
10 Day Moving Average   $167.31(2.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $165.93(3.15%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $24.09b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 1.52% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 0.63%(54%) Average negative next day return: -0.57%(46%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 0.93%(54%) Average negative next three day return: -1.16%(46%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 1.96%(62%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.12%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150207

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_7_2015	164.9	165.93	167.31	167.3	167.53	169.45	171.16(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	145	80	160	98	0.82	75%	0.15	53.3	1%	0	2.1	72	0
2	Jan_6_2015	164.65	165.51	167.04	166.3	166.21	167.28	169.2(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	95	40	100	78	0.98	73%	0.12	50.4	1%	0	1.6	67	0
3	Jan_5_2015	164.46	165.08	166.67	165.95	165.79	165.61	166.93(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10	19	48	1.13	70%	0.06	0	0.99%	0	0.9	60	0
4	Jan_2_2015	164.36	164.84	166.57	166.05	165.92	165.14	165.81(1.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-40	-40	-61	24	0.57	70%	0.04	0	1.01%	0	0.4	54	0
5	Dec_31_2014	164.29	164.64	166.51	166.28	166.49	165.98	163.39(-1.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-42	-20	-66	30	0.55	66%	-0.02	0	0.98%	0	-0.5	48	0

6	Dec_30_2014	164.33	164.59	166.37	167.24	167.05	166.7	166.16(-0.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-16	-20	-41	58	0.55	78%	0.05	0	0.93%	0	0.6	59	0
7	Dec_29_2014	164.24	164.38	166	167.85	167.58	167	167.44(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	1	-30	-25	77	0.61	78%	0.1	0	0.93%	0	1.2	64	0
8	Dec_26_2014	164.07	164.38	165.56	167.48	167.85	167.4	167.44(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-21	-10	-25	-10	0.39	78%	0.11	0	0.95%	0	67.2	69	0
9	Dec_24_2014	163.89	164.38	165.23	167.17	167.51	168.16	166.95(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	9	30	10	4	0.29	78%	0.11	0	0.98%	0	68.7	63	0
10	Dec_23_2014	163.71	164.38	164.98	166.76	167.1	168.31	168.22(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	111	60	131	52	1.01	78%	0.17	0	0.98%	0	70.7	67	0

11	Dec_22_2014	163.43	164.38	164.46	165.34	165.81	166.87	169.2(2.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	98	50	115	46	0.76	78%	0.24	0	0.99%	0	78.3	67	0
12	Dec_19_2014	163.04	164.38	163.79	163.89	164.23	165.89	165.6(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	84	80	99	40	1.65	71%	0.11	0	0.88%	0	102.9	62	0
13	Dec_18_2014	162.86	164.38	163.3	163.36	163.41	164.76	165.89(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	119	60	140	56	0.94	71%	0.15	0	0.91%	0	109.9	50	0
14	Dec_17_2014	162.62	164.38	162.89	163.05	162.94	162.57	164.9(2.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	18	-20	21	8	0.92	71%	0.12	0	0.94%	0	126.8	50	0
15	Dec_16_2014	162.43	164.38	162.55	163	163.15	162.06	161.09(-0.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-106	-40	-124	-50	1.09	56%	-0.08	0	0.69%	0	138.9	50	0

16	Dec_15_2014	162.56	164.38	162.55	163.42	163.76	163.3	161.98(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-60	-10	-71	-28	0.75	56%	-0.03	0	0.71%	0	142.1	50	0
17	Dec_12_2014	162.61	164.38	162.67	163.61	163.8	164.24	162.96(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	24	20	28	11	0.75	56%	0.02	0	0.71%	0	138.1	50	0
18	Dec_11_2014	162.58	164.38	162.67	163.14	163.34	164.23	164.31(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	100	40	118	47	0.69	68%	0.14	0	0.67%	0	132.5	50	0
19	Dec_10_2014	162.36	164.38	162.67	162.68	162.35	163.35	164.64(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	83	40	97	39	0.64	68%	0.2	0	0.7%	0	144.4	50	0
20	Dec_9_2014	162.03	164.38	162.67	162.07	161.83	162.46	163.19(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	81	20	95	38	0.46	58%	0.12	0	0.7%	0	204	50	0

21	Dec_8_2014	161.84	164.38	162.67	161.86	161.54	161.35	162.94(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	15	-10	17	7	0.69	58%	0.14	0	0.77%	0	232.8	50	0
22	Dec_5_2014	161.62	164.38	162.67	161.62	161.44	161.21	160.62(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.9	837	-10	985	394	0.89	18%	-0.15	0	0.47%	0	297.4	50	0
23	Dec_4_2014	161.87	164.38	162.67	129.5	161.69	161.72	162.02(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	141.4	1891	750	2225	890	0.62	43%	0.03	0	0.3%	0	704.4	50	0
24	Dec_3_2014	161.82	164.38	162.67	97.09	161.69	161.72	161.58(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	258	2650	-10000	3118	1247	0.53	43%	-0.07	0	0.32%	0	646.3	50	0
25	Dec_2_2014	161.94	164.38	162.67	64.78	161.69	161.72	162.16(0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	442.6	0	-10000	0	0	0.55	100%		0	0%	0	737.1	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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