Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 11, 2014

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $49.8100 (1.57%) ($49.1800 - $50.0000) on Mon. Aug. 11, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.06% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $49.8100(1.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 1.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLB(59%)    XLF(58%)    XLI(58%)    SPY(57%)    VT(57%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -0.53% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    VIXM(-22%)    UUP(-8%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.53% (StdDev 1.06%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $48.91(1.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.94(3.9%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.95(3.88%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   15%
Market Cap   $27.694b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 1.69% (three month std-dev: 1.06%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 0.22%(31%) Average negative next day return: -0.64%(69%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 0.94%(54%) Average negative next three day return: -1.08%(46%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 1.02%(69%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.61%(31%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140911

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_11_2014	45.07	47.95	47.94	48.91	48.89	49.18	49.81(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	56	40	50	73	2.98	61%	0.16	59.2	1.06%	0	2.3	61	0
2	Aug_8_2014	45	47.85	47.74	48.34	48.65	48.74	49.04(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	38	30	40	32	2.64	59%	0.13	56.2	1.05%	0	1.7	57	0
3	Aug_7_2014	44.94	47.79	47.63	47.85	48.15	48.61	48.52(-0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	26	90	35	-3	2.31	61%	0.13	54.4	1.05%	0	1.1	53	0
4	Aug_6_2014	44.88	47.73	47.6	47.42	47.59	48.57	48.64(0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.7	51	150	69	-5	4.57	61%	0.13	46.3	1.09%	0	1.3	62	0
5	Aug_5_2014	44.82	47.6	47.55	47.04	47.08	47.69	48.56(3.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	43	90	66	-25	6.29	61%	0.13	37.5	1.09%	0	1.3	56	0

6	Aug_4_2014	44.76	47.48	47.49	46.85	46.74	46.62	46.95(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-24	-30	-9	-67	2.86	57%	0.11	41.3	1.02%	0	-0.7	45	0
7	Aug_1_2014	44.71	47.46	47.61	47.07	47	46.46	46.57(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-51	-80	-45	-67	3.26	55%	0.09	65.4	1.02%	0	-1.2	35	0
8	Jul_31_2014	44.67	47.44	47.77	47.38	47.43	46.85	46.4(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-61	-80	-64	-51	3.68	55%	0.09	82.3	1.02%	0	-1.3	37	0
9	Jul_30_2014	44.63	47.4	47.88	47.79	47.86	47.55	46.74(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-38	-40	-45	-16	4.21	57%	0.09	94.4	1.03%	0	-0.7	47	0
10	Jul_29_2014	44.59	47.32	48	48.1	48.18	48.02	47.57(-1.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-3	-20	-16	35	2.46	55%	0.11	93.8	1.01%	0	0.2	67	0

11	Jul_28_2014	44.54	47.16	48.01	48.1	48.18	48.18	48.07(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	10	-10	-8	63	1.88	57%	0.16	79.9	1.06%	0	0.7	74	0
12	Jul_25_2014	44.47	46.96	48	48.1	48.27	48.35	48.12(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	22	10	1	85	2.04	57%	0.18	68.2	1.06%	0	0.8	66	0
13	Jul_24_2014	44.39	46.76	47.98	48.22	48.21	48.37	48.43(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	47	20	22	120	2.21	57%	0.16	60.5	1.05%	0	1.1	73	0
14	Jul_23_2014	44.32	46.54	47.87	48	48.04	48.19	48.29(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	43	20	15	125	2.25	57%	0.18	53.5	1.06%	0	1.1	75	0
15	Jul_22_2014	44.24	46.34	47.67	47.89	47.87	48.06	48.2(0.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	45	30	15	136	2.6	57%	0.2	51.6	1.06%	0	1.2	77	0

16	Jul_21_2014	44.15	46.17	47.45	47.89	47.79	47.89	48.08(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	46	20	11	149	2.36	57%	0.16	53.3	1.06%	0	1.2	80	0
17	Jul_18_2014	44.08	46.01	47.29	47.76	47.75	47.69	48.1(1.65%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	44	-10	-1	179	2.39	57%	0.2	58.5	1.06%	0	1.4	81	0
18	Jul_17_2014	43.99	45.85	47.07	47.76	47.82	47.7	47.32(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	47	-10	-5	202	2.57	55%	0.16	67	1.05%	0	1	77	0
19	Jul_16_2014	43.92	45.7	46.88	47.71	47.8	47.81	47.76(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	71	10	16	236	2.75	57%	0.16	68	1.04%	0	1.5	82	0
20	Jul_15_2014	43.85	45.53	46.6	47.39	47.48	47.95	47.54(-1.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	81	70	32	227	4.05	57%	0.18	62.3	1.06%	0	1.5	76	0

21	Jul_14_2014	43.77	45.36	46.27	47.07	47.08	47.78	48.07(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	99	100	61	212	3.46	59%	0.18	56	1.06%	0	2.1	71	0
22	Jul_11_2014	43.69	45.14	45.84	46.76	46.62	47.02	47.85(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	90	50	59	182	4.81	59%	0.18	49.8	1.06%	0	2.4	71	0
23	Jul_10_2014	43.61	44.91	45.44	46.34	46.24	46.37	47.35(2.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	56	10	31	132	5.8	57%	0.18	38.7	1.05%	0	2.4	65	0
24	Jul_9_2014	43.53	44.76	45.09	45.94	45.99	46.22	46.15(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	44	40	25	100	3.88	57%	0.11	35.7	1.01%	0	1.7	64	0
25	Jul_8_2014	43.48	44.7	44.89	45.68	45.72	46.1	45.94(-1.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	56	60	45	87	6.03	57%		33.7	1.03%	0	1.6	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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