Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Oct. 12, 2011

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $27.0800 (2.73%) ($26.4900 - $27.4700) on Wed. Oct. 12, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.8% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $27.0800(2.73%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(59%)    XLP(56%)    IWM(55%)    XAR(50%)    EWG(49%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -1.4% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    TIP(-8%)    SHY(-7%)    IGOV(-1%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.4% (StdDev 2.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $26.16(3.52%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.57(5.91%)
20 Day Moving Average   $26.07(3.87%)
To recent high   -16.1%
To recent low   12.1%
Market Cap   $15.056b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 4.79% (three month std-dev: 2.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -4.01%(100%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -3.76%(100%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.68%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111112

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_12_2011	28.78		25.57	26.16	26.2	26.53	27.08(2.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	29	90	23	46	6.2	44%	-0.14	-19.2	2.8%	0	0.8	60	NAN
2	Oct_11_2011	28.82	26.07	25.36	25.78	25.84	26.07	26.36(1.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	15	70	17	10	4.21	44%	-0.14	-29.4	2.78%	0	0.2	44	NAN
3	Oct_10_2011	28.86	26.1	25.28	25.43	25.51	25.88	26.01(2.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	10	110	20	-22	3.59	44%	-0.21	-36.8	2.78%	0	-0.1	38	NAN
4	Oct_7_2011	28.92	26.15	25.23	25.06	25.07	25.61	25.45(-1.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-3	150	16	-59	4.85	45%	-0.21	-46	2.77%	0	-0.5	36	NAN
5	Oct_6_2011	28.98	26.23	25.2	24.93	24.75	25.14	25.91(2.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-13	90	13	-92	5.23	45%	-0.21	-52.2	2.77%	0	-0.2	34	NAN

6	Oct_5_2011	29.04	26.31	25.14	24.9	24.69	24.53	25.17(2.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-30	-70	1	-121	6.09	43%	-0.24	-55.1	2.74%	0	-0.9	33	NAN
7	Oct_4_2011	29.11	26.45	25.32	24.89	24.88	24.36	24.61(1.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-48	-150	-19	-133	8.76	43%	-0.24	-59.4	2.73%	0	-1.4	36	NAN
8	Oct_3_2011	29.18	26.58	25.64	25.12	25.19	24.85	24.16(-2.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-46	-90	-22	-119	6.16	43%	-0.27	-63.1	2.73%	0	-1.9	35	NAN
9	Sep_30_2011	29.26	26.75	26	25.4	25.56	25.39	24.81(-3.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-28	-30	-5	-95	7.32	44%	-0.27	-65.5	2.74%	0	-1.7	38	NAN
10	Sep_29_2011	29.34	26.93	26.37	25.47	25.58	25.52	25.77(2.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-21	-0	-1	-82	5.72	47%	-0.24	-65.6	2.7%	0	-1.1	42	NAN

11	Sep_28_2011	29.41	27.06	26.61	25.4	25.49	25.73	25.11(-2.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-30	80	-11	-86	5.44	47%	-0.27	-67.2	2.7%	0	-1.8	34	NAN
12	Sep_27_2011	29.49	27.25	26.85	25.82	25.58	25.63	25.77(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-26	-10	-10	-72	7.68	47%	-0.3	-58.2	2.68%	0	-1.4	35	NAN
13	Sep_26_2011	29.58	27.4	26.99	26.27	26	25.25	25.53(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-34	-230	-26	-59	8.13	47%	-0.3	-42	2.68%	0	-1.8	42	NAN
14	Sep_23_2011	29.67	27.52	27.16	26.72	26.7	25.53	25.19(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-50	-310	-49	-52	6.94	46%	-0.3	-32.2	2.68%	0	-2.5	37	NAN
15	Sep_22_2011	29.76	27.66	27.38	27.41	27.34	26.74	25.41(-6.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.6	-40	-160	-44	-28	13.32	46%	-0.3	-14.2	2.69%	0	-3	34	NAN

16	Sep_21_2011	29.85	27.82	27.62	27.97	28.04	27.88	27.18(-3.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-1	-30	-3	7	6.14	49%	-0.27	8.8	2.58%	0	-1.1	40	NAN
17	Sep_20_2011	29.93	27.87	27.69	28.01	28.08	27.94	28.03(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	3	-30	2	6	5.12	51%	-0.3	12.9	2.55%	0	0.3	43	NAN
18	Sep_19_2011	30.02	27.84	27.6	27.83	27.88	28.2	27.81(-2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	1	90	6	-14	4.91	51%	-0.3	-4.4	2.55%	0	-0.1	41	NAN
19	Sep_16_2011	30.11	27.82	27.56	27.67	27.69	28.22	28.62(1.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	16	140	27	-17	7.24	53%	-0.26	-10.1	2.54%	0	1.4	56	NAN
20	Sep_15_2011	30.19	27.76	27.5	27.37	27.25	27.57	28.19(2.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	3	70	14	-32	6.08	52%	-0.26	-25.8	2.54%	0	0.8	55	NAN

21	Sep_14_2011	30.27	27.77	27.52	27.24	27.06	27.16	27.41(1.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-11	10	0	-45	4.64	51%	-0.3	-14.9	2.52%	0	-0.6	41	NAN
22	Sep_13_2011	30.36	27.8	27.64	27.24	27.17	26.93	27.1(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	-80	-3	-38	3.84	51%	-0.3	-7.6	2.53%	0	-1.3	41	NAN
23	Sep_12_2011	30.45	27.86	27.8	27.34	27.34	26.97	27.02(-0.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-16	-90	-11	-31	5.76	51%	-0.13	8.8	2.53%	0	-1.6	51	NAN
24	Sep_9_2011	30.49	27.88	27.89	27.42	27.36	27.41	27.11(-1.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-17	10	-14	-26	6.94	50%	-0.29	2.1	2.54%	0	-1.5	49	NAN
25	Sep_8_2011	30.58	27.91	27.95	27.65	27.49	27.72	27.55(-1.33%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-2	40	1	-9	4.98	50%		10.8	2.54%	0	-0.7	52	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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