Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. May. 16, 2007

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $36.6900 (1.63%) ($36.2500 - $36.7400) on Wed. May. 16, 2007.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.54% (three month average)
RSI   28
Latest Price   $36.6900(1.63%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM declines -2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(63%)    EEM(58%)    EWG(57%)    IWM(57%)    VWO(57%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -0.77% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-28%)    SHY(-17%)    TIP(-11%)    GLD(8%)    LQD(10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.77% (StdDev 1.54%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

Resistance Level   $37.08
5 Day Moving Average   $35.98(1.97%)
10 Day Moving Average   $35.95(2.06%)
20 Day Moving Average   $37.08(-1.05%)
To recent high   -7.2%
To recent low   11.4%
Market Cap   $20.4b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 3.8% (three month std-dev: 1.54%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0.34%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 2.46%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 3.47%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20070616

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_16_2007	34.86	37.08	35.95	35.98	36.13	36.27	36.69(1.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-9	40	18	-91	6.05	53%	0.14	-33.4	1.54%	0	-0.3	28	0
2	May_15_2007	34.81	37.12	35.92	35.79	35.94	36.05	36.1(1.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-25	30	11	-134	5.98	54%	0.03	-37.1	1.53%	0	-0.7	20	0
3	May_14_2007	34.8	37.21	35.97	35.64	35.8	35.98	35.74(-0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-41	50	3	-171	8.76	54%	0.14	-41.2	1.55%	0	-1.1	19	0
4	May_11_2007	34.75	37.33	36.24	35.74	35.73	35.83	35.87(1.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-39	20	3	-164	4.36	59%	0.12	-39.8	1.61%	0	-1.1	24	0
5	May_10_2007	34.71	37.44	36.53	35.78	35.83	35.62	35.5(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-46	-40	-7	-163	11.43	59%	0.12	-37.7	1.62%	0	-1.5	26	0

6	May_9_2007	34.67	37.56	36.87	35.9	35.97	35.63	35.74(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-56	-60	-24	-150	5.75	59%	0.09	-35.5	1.63%	0	-1.5	42	0
7	May_8_2007	34.64	37.65	37.24	36.08	36.25	36.05	35.37(-2.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-47	-20	-21	-125	6.98	59%	0.12	-32.5	1.63%	0	-1.9	38	0
8	May_7_2007	34.6	37.8	37.64	36.33	36.47	36.32	36.21(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-42	-20	-22	-103	3.55	63%	0.12	-25.8	1.61%	0	-1.5	40	0
9	May_4_2007	34.56	37.88	37.92	36.82	36.53	36.45	36.06(-0.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-47	-40	-37	-75	6.65	63%	0.09	-8.7	1.62%	0	-1.8	37	0
10	May_3_2007	34.53	37.95	38.18	37.41	37.17	36.62	36.14(-1.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-31	-120	-29	-37	6.1	63%	0.12	9.4	1.63%	0	-1.9	38	0

11	May_2_2007	34.49	38	38.34	37.99	37.76	36.6	36.62(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-54	-230	-64	-22	6.46	63%	0.09	28.4	1.64%	0	-1.6	47	0
12	May_1_2007	34.46	38.04	38.45	38.57	38.38	37.73	36.6(-5.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.3	-47	-130	-66	10	15.95	71%	0.09	57	1.64%	0	-1.7	48	0
13	Apr_30_2007	34.43	38.07	38.61	39.11	39.11	38.92	38.7(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	9	-30	-5	51	5.8	80%	0.15	83.7	2%	0	0.8	57	0
14	Apr_27_2007	34.38	37.97	38.55	39.17	39.18	39.03	39.01(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-30	-3	58	3.79	80%	0.15	89.3	1.98%	0	1.2	63	0
15	Apr_26_2007	34.33	37.86	38.45	39.07	39.14	39.29	39.03(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	26	30	12	68	4.2	80%	0.15	92.9	2%	0	1.4	68	0

16	Apr_25_2007	34.28	37.75	38.29	38.73	38.85	39.34	39.52(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	38	100	28	66	6.57	80%	0.18	90.8	1.99%	0	2.2	75	0
17	Apr_24_2007	34.22	37.57	38.08	38.32	38.32	38.99	39.31(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	35	120	30	51	6.71	80%	0.12	83.6	2%	0	2.2	68	0
18	Apr_23_2007	34.18	37.39	37.93	38.04	37.88	38.36	38.96(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	31	80	26	45	6.98	82%	0.15	88.2	2.01%	0	2.1	68	0
19	Apr_20_2007	34.13	37.23	37.8	37.85	37.68	37.64	38.55(3.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	-20	8	38	8.48	82%	0.09	95.1	2.02%	0	1.7	68	0
20	Apr_19_2007	34.1	37.08	37.65	37.75	37.73	37.41	37.31(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-1	-60	-11	29	3.37	81%	0.09	104.4	2%	0	0.3	59	0

21	Apr_18_2007	34.07	37.02	37.61	37.79	37.87	37.73	37.49(-1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	3	-20	-7	33	4.49	81%	0.15	116.4	2.01%	0	0.6	59	0
22	Apr_17_2007	34.02	36.91	37.59	37.77	37.83	38.06	37.87(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	12	50	1	46	3.86	81%	0.15	115.7	2.02%	0	1.1	73	0
23	Apr_16_2007	33.97	36.74	37.49	37.8	37.81	38	38.05(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	24	40	12	60	5.06	81%	0.15	101.8	2.02%	0	1.3	75	0
24	Apr_13_2007	33.92	36.52	37.36	37.74	37.76	37.59	38.01(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	21	-30	6	64	6.37	81%	0.15	84.7	2.02%	0	1.3	77	0
25	Apr_12_2007	33.87	36.31	37.23	37.54	37.67	37.63	37.51(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	13	0	-3	61	4.63	77%		70.6	2.03%	0	1	73	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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