Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 4, 2006

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $40.0000 (-7.66%) ($39.7000 - $42.6700) on Thu. May. 4, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.43% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $40.0000(-7.66%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM advances 4.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(61%)    EEM(57%)    EWG(56%)    IWM(56%)    VWO(56%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -1.215% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-16%)    TIP(-10%)    REMX(2%)    LQD(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.215% (StdDev 2.43%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -5.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.91(0.23%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.63(3.55%)
20 Day Moving Average   $37.75(5.96%)
To recent high   -7.7%
To recent low   34%
Market Cap   $22.24b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 5.01% (three month std-dev: 2.43%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.57%(25%) Average negative next day return: -1.7%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.09%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -6.92%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 1.66%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -10.21%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060604

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_4_2006	31.66	37.75	38.63	39.91	40.4	41.8	40(-7.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	59	280	39	120	16.24	79%	0.51	66.1	2.43%	0	1.2	61	NAN
2	May_3_2006	31.5	37.59	38.36	39.15	39.19	41.41	43.32(3.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	110	400	105	126	17.33	89%	0.61	64.5	2.22%	0	3.1	69	NAN
3	May_2_2006	31.31	37.2	37.74	37.87	37.71	38.99	41.9(10.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	3.2	82	220	84	76	19.31	88%	0.58	69.2	2.19%	0	3.7	69	NAN
4	May_1_2006	31.13	36.85	37.19	36.83	36.84	36.96	38(4.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	11	20	12	9	7.89	78%	0.45	78.9	1.8%	0	1.5	60	NAN
5	Apr_28_2006	30.99	36.64	37.01	36.87	36.9	36.44	36.34(0.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-16	-80	-21	-1	3.65	80%	0.39	55.4	2.13%	0	-0.3	54	NAN

6	Apr_27_2006	30.87	36.54	37.07	37.17	37.39	36.72	36.19(-2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-16	-110	-25	10	5.07	80%	0.42	52.9	2.15%	0	-0.3	47	NAN
7	Apr_26_2006	30.74	36.46	37.2	37.39	37.71	37.36	36.93(0.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-12	-40	-23	22	4.28	80%	0.42	51.3	2.13%	0	0.4	49	NAN
8	Apr_25_2006	30.61	36.34	37.17	37.55	37.88	38.05	36.67(-4.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.7	12	60	1	43	6.9	80%	0.46	51.3	2.14%	0	0.3	56	NAN
9	Apr_24_2006	30.47	36.27	37.14	37.57	37.77	38.06	38.21(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	35	70	25	63	5.21	87%	0.49	51.8	2.07%	0	1.5	68	NAN
10	Apr_21_2006	30.32	36.11	36.92	37.18	37.37	37.7	37.86(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	80	15	60	3.74	87%	0.46	45.4	2.06%	0	1.4	74	NAN

11	Apr_20_2006	30.18	35.94	36.82	36.97	37.09	37.48	37.3(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	80	11	73	3.63	83%	0.5	42.7	2.08%	0	1.1	70	NAN
12	Apr_19_2006	30.03	35.84	36.8	36.99	36.98	37.05	37.7(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	36	10	15	98	4.78	83%	0.47	50	2.09%	0	1.6	69	NAN
13	Apr_18_2006	29.89	35.69	36.62	36.76	36.91	36.7	36.78(1.49%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	22	-30	-2	94	4.8	84%	0.44	50.2	2.08%	0	1	64	NAN
14	Apr_17_2006	29.76	35.6	36.47	36.65	36.87	36.92	36.24(-1.66%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	20	30	-3	90	3.3	84%	0.4	55.1	2.13%	0	0.6	58	NAN
15	Apr_13_2006	29.64	35.55	36.24	36.61	36.8	37.13	36.85(-1.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	28	80	9	85	2.68	84%	0.44	69.5	2.12%	0	1.2	60	NAN

16	Apr_12_2006	29.51	35.43	35.96	36.62	36.8	36.82	37.39(2.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	27	30	9	82	5.96	84%	0.44	82	2.11%	0	1.9	66	NAN
17	Apr_11_2006	29.38	35.26	35.66	36.58	36.67	36.47	36.55(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	19	-30	1	73	4.23	84%	0.44	101.9	2.1%	0	1.4	58	NAN
18	Apr_10_2006	29.25	35.15	35.45	36.46	36.71	36.52	36.2(0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-20	-1	65	2.67	84%	0.41	110.5	2.11%	0	1.1	58	NAN
19	Apr_7_2006	29.13	35.02	35.33	36.27	36.53	36.87	36.05(-2.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	30	90	18	66	3.27	84%	0.41	99	2.1%	0	0.9	57	NAN
20	Apr_6_2006	29.01	34.84	35.23	35.79	36.13	36.9	36.92(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	49	180	47	56	4.49	88%	0.45	79.9	2.08%	0	1.7	60	NAN

21	Apr_5_2006	28.88	34.6	34.99	35.18	35.23	36.18	37.19(3.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	40	190	44	28	6.7	85%	0.49	63.7	2.1%	0	2.1	66	NAN
22	Apr_4_2006	28.74	34.32	34.77	34.61	34.59	35.36	35.96(2.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	31	150	38	8	4.9	85%	0.42	54.2	2.1%	0	1.3	64	NAN
23	Apr_3_2006	28.62	34.11	34.65	34.33	34.23	34.29	35.21(4.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	7	0	13	-11	6.68	85%	0.42	47.9	2.22%	0	0.9	56	NAN
24	Mar_31_2006	28.5	33.96	34.62	34.29	34.16	33.81	33.65(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-20	-80	-21	-16	5.12	83%	0.32	48.2	2.17%	0	-0.3	55	NAN
25	Mar_30_2006	28.41	33.9	34.79	34.59	34.53	34.17	33.9(-1.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-6	-80	-15	22	3.62	80%		57.5	2.18%	0	0	67	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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