Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 3, 2005

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $24.8100 (1.81%) ($24.2100 - $24.8500) on Thu. Mar. 3, 2005.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.83% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $24.8100(1.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(59%)    EEM(55%)    EWG(54%)    IWM(54%)    XLP(53%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -0.915% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-15%)    TIP(-9%)    REMX(2%)    LQD(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.915% (StdDev 1.83%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $24.37(1.81%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.28(2.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.22(2.44%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   17.3%
Market Cap   $13.794b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 2.11% (three month std-dev: 1.83%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.4%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: 0%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 1.21%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_3_2005	21.6	24.22		24.37	24.3	24.42	24.81(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	18	30	21	7	2.82	62%	0.37	36.5	1.83%	0	1.2	60	0
2	Mar_2_2005	21.52	24.18		24.07	24.13	24.25	24.37(-0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	15	40	20	-1	1.63	62%	0.33	33	1.82%	0	0.4	59	0
3	Mar_1_2005	21.45	24.16	24.28	23.82	23.75	24.18	24.39(1.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-3	120	2	-19	2.34	64%	0.37	31	1.82%	0	0.5	58	0
4	Feb_28_2005	21.37	24.15	24.29	23.92	23.61	24.02	24.1(-0.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	7	80	10	-1	3.71	64%	0.33	50.2	1.82%	0	-0.1	53	0
5	Feb_25_2005	21.3	24.1	24.31	24.06	23.81	23.31	24.18(3.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-4	-180	-7	6	4.27	64%	0.38	57.1	1.82%	0	0.1	52	0

6	Feb_24_2005	21.22	24.04	24.29	24.19	24.06	23.21	23.31(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-43	-260	-55	-6	5.46	61%	0.28	52.8	1.78%	0	-1.2	44	0
7	Feb_23_2005	21.16	24.02	24.34	24.51	24.6	24.32	23.1(-7.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.1	-19	-70	-33	25	6.73	61%	0.28	59.3	1.78%	0	-1.4	43	0
8	Feb_22_2005	21.1	24.01	24.42	24.77	24.86	24.91	24.91(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	20	6	69	3.89	74%	0.57	63.4	1.51%	0	1.3	68	0
9	Feb_18_2005	20.98	23.9	24.33	24.71	24.73	24.89	24.82(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	50	11	64	2.32	74%	0.38	64.2	1.5%	0	1.2	60	0
10	Feb_17_2005	20.9	23.8	24.25	24.6	24.63	24.81	24.79(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	36	50	23	75	2.19	74%	0.43	68.5	1.5%	0	1.4	74	0

11	Feb_16_2005	20.81	23.72	24.17	24.41	24.4	24.58	24.94(2.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	38	50	24	79	3.69	74%	0.43	77.3	1.49%	0	1.8	79	0
12	Feb_15_2005	20.72	23.63	24.07	24.15	24.15	24.45	24.4(-0.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	33	90	19	75	2.53	72%	0.39	86	1.48%	0	1.3	77	0
13	Feb_14_2005	20.64	23.57	24.02	24.02	23.96	24.22	24.6(1.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	39	70	23	87	3.24	72%	0.44	91	1.47%	0	1.7	81	0
14	Feb_11_2005	20.55	23.44	23.97	23.89	23.79	23.85	24.25(1.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	28	10	7	92	1.82	72%	0.39	80.1	1.46%	0	1.2	73	0
15	Feb_10_2005	20.47	23.32	23.86	23.86	23.78	23.7	23.85(0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	20	-30	-5	94	1.51	73%	0.34	74	1.45%	0	0.8	72	0

16	Feb_9_2005	20.4	23.21	23.76	23.9	23.84	23.73	23.67(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	15	-40	-10	88	1.75	73%	0.34	69.9	1.48%	0	0.6	55	0
17	Feb_8_2005	20.33	23.12	23.67	23.96	23.91	23.87	23.73(-1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-20	-7	86	1.99	73%	0.4	68.5	1.48%	0	0.7	56	0
18	Feb_7_2005	20.25	23.04	23.57	24.01	23.97	23.87	23.97(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	20	-10	-3	87	1.93	73%	0.35	69.9	1.47%	0	1.1	61	0
19	Feb_4_2005	20.18	22.93	23.46	24.06	23.97	23.95	24.08(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	37	-20	11	115	2.65	75%	0.4	69.5	1.48%	0	1.4	76	0
20	Feb_3_2005	20.1	22.81	23.32	23.85	24	23.99	24.05(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	42	20	18	112	2.32	77%	0.4	60.9	1.49%	0	1.5	76	0

21	Feb_2_2005	20.02	22.68	23.24	23.6	23.68	24.06	23.96(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	46	120	22	118	2.68	77%	0.35	49.7	1.51%	0	1.5	77	0
22	Feb_1_2005	19.95	22.56	23.16	23.34	23.37	24.02	23.99(-0.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	67	200	46	130	3.63	72%	0.35	40	1.51%	0	1.8	75	0
23	Jan_31_2005	19.88	22.46	23.07	23.07	23.03	23.3	24.2(4.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	59	80	39	119	4.59	72%	0.4	33.7	1.55%	0	2.4	72	0
24	Jan_28_2005	19.8	22.35	22.84	22.8	22.75	22.72	23.06(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-20	2	72	3.68	76%	0.35	29.7	1.78%	0	1.2	67	0
25	Jan_27_2005	19.73	22.31	22.73	22.72	22.79	22.76	22.79(0.62%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	11	0	-7	63	2.07	76%		30.3	1.81%	0	0.8	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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