Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 5, 2023

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $18.3200 (1.24%) ($18.3200 - $18.3200) on Wed. Jul. 5, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.33% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $18.3200(1.24%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(87%)    PEJ(67%)    IYT(66%)    IWC(61%)    ARKK(60%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.165% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-38%)    VIXM(-37%)    TBT(-26%)    USO(-24%)    UUP(-21%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.165% (StdDev 2.33%)
Hourly BBV 1.5 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $17.89(2.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $17.26(6.14%)
20 Day Moving Average   $16.63(10.16%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   44.7%
Market Cap   $9.317b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 5.29% (three month std-dev: 2.33%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.68%(58%) Average negative next day return: -1.47%(42%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 3.13%(48%) Average negative next three day return: -3.43%(52%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 3.4%(42%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.16%(58%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_5_2023	14.9	16.63	17.26	17.89	17.99	18.21	18.32(1.24%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	44	100	17	124	17.24	68%	0	94.1	2.33%	1.5	1.9	83	0.9
2	Jul_3_2023	14.9	16.45	17.05	17.69	17.78	18.01	18.1(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	47	110	24	116	12.55	68%	0.13	86.2	2.35%	0	1.8	84	1.2
3	Jun_30_2023	14.88	16.29	16.88	17.36	17.59	17.76	17.93(1.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	46	110	27	103	15.06	68%	0.07	81.3	2.35%	1.7	1.8	86	1
4	Jun_29_2023	14.87	16.13	16.75	17.01	17.21	17.55	17.6(0.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	38	170	20	91	16.65	68%	0.07	78.1	2.35%	0.6	1.7	87	1
5	Jun_28_2023	14.86	15.98	16.63	16.76	16.87	17.43	17.5(0.86%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	44	250	27	94	22.91	68%	0	78	2.36%	1	1.8	87	1.2

6	Jun_27_2023	14.86	15.84	16.51	16.53	16.58	16.88	17.35(5.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	44	140	26	96	36.8	68%	0.07	74.9	2.36%	1.5	1.9	88	1.1
7	Jun_26_2023	14.85	15.69	16.37	16.33	16.33	16.31	16.4(1.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	23	-10	-0	91	16.98	64%	-0.07	71.6	2.27%	1.8	1	85	1
8	Jun_23_2023	14.86	15.59	16.3	16.35	16.31	16.28	16.22(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	21	-20	-7	104	15.56	64%	-0.07	65.4	2.26%	-0.2	0.8	81	1.1
9	Jun_22_2023	14.87	15.47	16.22	16.43	16.38	16.28	16.35(0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	30	-30	-3	128	10.32	58%	0	60.3	2.26%	1.1	1.1	86	1.4
10	Jun_21_2023	14.87	15.36	16.1	16.43	16.43	16.34	16.34(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	33	-50	-2	137	16.01	61%	0	57.7	2.33%	-0.2	1.1	82	1.3

11	Jun_20_2023	14.87	15.26	15.97	16.47	16.43	16.42	16.34(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	37	-20	1	145	14.29	61%	-0.07	57.4	2.36%	-1.2	1.2	83	1.2
12	Jun_16_2023	14.88	15.18	15.82	16.41	16.48	16.52	16.49(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	48	30	11	157	18.17	61%	0	63.3	2.34%	-1.6	1.6	89	1.6
13	Jun_15_2023	14.88	15.1	15.66	16.23	16.34	16.55	16.65(0.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	54	110	20	155	17.24	55%	0	67.9	2.35%	1	2	91	1.2
14	Jun_14_2023	14.88	15.01	15.47	15.96	16.11	16.44	16.55(1.41%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	54	170	24	142	19.74	55%	0.07	69.8	2.47%	1.4	2.2	93	4.5
15	Jun_13_2023	14.87	14.88	15.28	15.68	15.8	16.14	16.32(1.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	51	170	25	130	16.96	52%	0	64.1	2.48%	1.1	2.4	83	1.3

16	Jun_12_2023	14.87	14.77	15.11	15.4	15.5	15.78	16.03(2.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	44	150	22	110	28.36	52%	-0.07	59.1	2.5%	1.2	2.4	73	1.4
17	Jun_9_2023	14.88	14.67	14.94	15.16	15.25	15.46	15.62(2.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	31	110	15	79	17.87	44%	0	54.4	2.52%	1.3	2.1	60	1.7
18	Jun_8_2023	14.88	14.59	14.81	15.01	15.05	15.23	15.3(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	90	11	55	18.24	44%	-0.13	56.6	2.55%	0.8	1.7	52	2
19	Jun_7_2023	14.9	14.54	14.67	14.89	14.94	15.04	15.15(1.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	60	8	29	16.86	44%	-0.13	59	2.55%	1.4	1.6	52	2.2
20	Jun_6_2023	14.92	14.5	14.56	14.82	14.83	14.87	14.93(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	7	20	3	19	13.44	44%	0	68.5	2.55%	0.7	1.2	60	2.4

21	Jun_5_2023	14.92	14.47	14.5	14.77	14.8	14.84	14.81(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	9	30	6	17	12.03	44%	-0.13	75	2.56%	-0.5	1	58	2.3
22	Jun_2_2023	14.94	14.43	14.49	14.68	14.76	14.8	14.88(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	12	40	8	22	27.18	44%	-0.13	67.1	2.56%	1.2	1.3	62	2.2
23	Jun_1_2023	14.96	14.36	14.5	14.58	14.63	14.76	14.71(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	16	70	12	29	17.59	44%	-0.07	62.6	2.56%	0.2	0.9	59	2
24	May_31_2023	14.97	14.32	14.51	14.4	14.51	14.73	14.8(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	17	130	15	22	27.1	44%	0	62.5	2.61%	1.3	1.2	56	1.2
25	May_30_2023	14.97	14.27	14.45	14.25	14.27	14.5	14.66(2.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	7	120	8	3	17.15	44%		63.4	2.62%	1.3	1	52	1.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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