Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 31, 2022

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $18.3000 (1.47%) ($18.3000 - $18.3000) on Thu. Mar. 31, 2022.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.8% (three month average)
RSI   84
Latest Price   $18.3000(1.47%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 7.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(60%)    PEJ(55%)    DRIV(50%)    IWF(50%)    IVW(49%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.9% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-29%)    UUP(-22%)    VXX(-4%)    TBT(-3%)    SHY(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.9% (StdDev 3.8%)
Hourly BBV 1.4 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $17.75(3.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $17.15(6.71%)
20 Day Moving Average   $15.95(14.73%)
To recent high   -5.4%
To recent low   42.7%
Market Cap   $9.307b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 9.66% (three month std-dev: 3.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 7.8%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.2%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 7.39%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -8.44%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 3.14%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -6.35%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_31_2022	17.45	15.95	17.15	17.75	17.94	18.17	18.3(1.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	41	120	13	124	29.89	56%	-0.17	24.6	3.8%	1.4	1.5	84	-0.9
2	Mar_30_2022	17.48	15.81	16.96	17.43	17.62	18.09	18.04(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	47	220	18	134	26.28	56%	-0.29	16	3.8%	0.4	1.5	81	-0.7
3	Mar_29_2022	17.53	15.71	16.79	17.08	17.29	17.71	18.15(5.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	50	210	21	138	54.35	56%	-0.23	8.8	3.8%	1.4	1.8	80	-0.9
4	Mar_28_2022	17.57	15.6	16.53	16.76	16.81	17.14	17.28(1.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	45	150	13	142	27.11	54%	-0.28	-1.5	3.76%	1.3	1.3	81	-1.5
5	Mar_25_2022	17.62	15.6	16.24	16.52	16.63	16.86	17.01(1.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	43	120	9	146	37.15	54%	-0.17	-8.9	3.74%	0.9	1.1	83	-0.9

6	Mar_24_2022	17.65	15.6	15.95	16.46	16.63	16.48	16.71(2.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	20	2	140	31.7	54%	-0.23	-12.7	3.76%	1.7	0.9	63	-0.7
7	Mar_23_2022	17.69	15.58	15.71	16.42	16.4	16.4	16.25(-1.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	31	-0	-1	125	28.93	54%	-0.23	-19.9	3.77%	-0.3	0.5	53	-0.8
8	Mar_22_2022	17.73	15.59	15.52	16.46	16.47	16.31	16.55(3.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	-70	6	113	36.56	54%	-0.17	-25.8	3.77%	0.9	0.7	50	-1
9	Mar_21_2022	17.76	15.62	15.22	16.26	16.44	16.4	16.07(-4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	27	20	10	77	42.4	56%	-0.17	-29.8	3.75%	-1.3	0.3	49	-1.2
10	Mar_18_2022	17.79	15.7	14.91	15.89	16.31	16.63	16.74(1.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	24	220	26	19	33.1	58%	-0.17	-34.4	3.74%	1.6	0.7	46	0.2

11	Mar_17_2022	17.82	15.75	14.67	15.35	15.68	16.47	16.52(0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	11	420	28	-41	38.97	58%	-0.17	-43.6	3.77%	1.2	0.5	44	-0.9
12	Mar_16_2022	17.85	15.85	14.56	14.88	15.04	15.98	16.43(5.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	6	470	34	-77	62.45	58%	-0.17	-47.5	3.78%	1.3	0.3	47	-0.6
13	Mar_15_2022	17.88	15.95	14.51	14.46	14.49	14.89	15.54(9.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-6	200	28	-108	71.92	55%	-0.17	-49.4	3.73%	1.4	-0.2	44	-2.8
14	Mar_14_2022	17.91	16.04	14.56	14.06	14.18	14.11	14.23(1.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-29	-10	13	-155	49.23	51%	-0.28	-54.5	3.53%	0.5	-1	33	-1.8
15	Mar_11_2022	17.96	16.21	14.83	13.78	14.01	14.09	14.01(-1.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-48	90	-4	-181	47.47	49%	-0.33	-57.2	3.55%	-0.8	-1.2	29	0.6

16	Mar_10_2022	18.02	16.45	15.16	13.88	13.71	14.26	14.19(-0.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-52	240	-8	-183	52.8	49%	-0.33	-52.1	3.57%	0.4	-1.3	29	0.9
17	Mar_9_2022	18.08	16.68	15.44	14.19	13.8	13.93	14.32(5.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-52	-20	-8	-183	84.22	49%	-0.28	-45	3.57%	1.1	-1.4	27	-0.8
18	Mar_8_2022	18.13	16.88	15.67	14.6	14.14	13.17	13.54(5.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-74	-570	-34	-195	85.02	46%	-0.38	-37.4	3.49%	-0.2	-2	20	-1.2
19	Mar_7_2022	18.2	17.08	16.07	15.15	14.85	13.67	12.82(-11.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-91	-620	-60	-182	82.35	43%	-0.38	-30.8	3.42%	-1.9	-2.9	27	-1.6
20	Mar_4_2022	18.27	17.29	16.6	16.02	15.71	15.11	14.53(-7.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-65	-330	-42	-132	70.34	54%	-0.27	-16.8	3.26%	-1.5	-2.5	32	-1.2

21	Mar_3_2022	18.32	17.42	16.97	16.61	16.38	16.03	15.72(-4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-38	-190	-18	-98	47.15	55%	-0.22	1.3	3.14%	-1.9	-1.9	32	-0.8
22	Mar_2_2022	18.36	17.49	17.28	16.86	16.79	16.31	16.38(0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-28	-210	-10	-80	41.11	61%	-0.27	14.1	3.15%	-0.9	-1.3	34	-1
23	Mar_1_2022	18.41	17.53	17.52	16.92	16.94	16.72	16.29(-5.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-31	-90	-17	-72	50.24	56%	-0.16	19.3	3.27%	-1.3	-1.6	39	-1.8
24	Feb_28_2022	18.44	17.55	17.66	17.14	17.04	17.28	17.21(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-16	80	-3	-53	47.16	59%	-0.16	28	3.3%	0.2	-0.4	52	-1
25	Feb_25_2022	18.47	17.48	17.7	17.27	17.09	17.16	17.47(2.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-9	-0	-1	-34	43.74	54%		25.9	3.53%	1	-0	60	-0.7
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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