Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Sep. 7, 2016

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $37.8519 (4.84%) ($36.5527 - $38.6040) on Wed. Sep. 7, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.09% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $37.8519(4.84%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(83%)    PEJ(63%)    IWN(55%)    XAR(54%)    XLF(54%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.545% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-15%)    VIXM(-12%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.545% (StdDev 3.09%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $36.1(4.85%)
10 Day Moving Average   $35.93(5.35%)
20 Day Moving Average   $35.52(6.57%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   53.8%
Market Cap   $19.25b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 2.48% (three month std-dev: 3.09%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 0.72%(56%) Average negative next day return: -2.27%(44%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 1%(44%) Average negative next three day return: -3.45%(56%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 2.85%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.95%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161007

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_7_2016	32.72	35.52	35.93	36.1	36.05	36.62	37.85(4.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	26	110	26	26	13.77	58%	-0.09	78.6	3.09%	0	2.6	65	0
2	Sep_6_2016	32.75	35.31	35.68	35.77	35.61	35.65	36.1(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	7	-10	7	7	5.5	56%	-0.3	85.3	3.06%	0	1	51	0
3	Sep_2_2016	32.85	35.19	35.59	35.61	35.51	35.48	35.68(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10	0	-0	5.43	54%	-0.15	64.4	3.06%	0	0.6	58	0
4	Sep_1_2016	32.9	35.09	35.58	35.55	35.48	35.56	35.4(-0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	10	-2	4	6.94	54%	-0.09	52.1	3.06%	0	0.3	64	0
5	Aug_31_2016	32.93	34.97	35.62	35.65	35.51	35.54	35.46(-2.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	5	-10	1	17	13.11	54%	-0.09	39.4	3.06%	0	0.4	65	0

6	Aug_30_2016	32.96	34.84	35.65	35.72	35.54	35.41	36.19(2.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	9	-40	1	32	14.51	54%	-0.03	28.6	3.05%	0	1.2	77	0
7	Aug_29_2016	32.97	34.67	35.62	35.59	35.59	35.47	35.33(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	7	-20	-3	38	4.76	54%	-0.06	15.2	3.06%	0	0.6	67	0
8	Aug_26_2016	32.99	34.63	35.6	35.56	35.64	35.67	35.39(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	10	-1	46	6.26	53%	-0.06	13.7	3.06%	0	0.7	69	0
9	Aug_25_2016	33.01	34.58	35.48	35.61	35.57	35.71	35.87(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	20	2	53	5.45	53%	-0.06	11.8	3.07%	0	1.2	73	0
10	Aug_24_2016	33.03	34.55	35.32	35.6	35.54	35.61	35.8(0.69%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	18	10	3	61	5.95	53%	-0.06	17.6	3.07%	0	1.2	78	0

11	Aug_23_2016	33.05	34.51	35.09	35.59	35.52	35.44	35.56(1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	15	-20	-2	64	5.4	53%	-0.09	18.7	3.07%	0	1	77	0
12	Aug_22_2016	33.08	34.5	34.92	35.66	35.56	35.46	35.17(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	17	-30	-2	75	5.19	53%	-0.09	23.4	3.07%	0	0.6	76	0
13	Aug_19_2016	33.11	34.48	34.77	35.63	35.57	35.61	35.64(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	24	0	7	73	6.68	53%	-0.12	21.8	3.07%	0	1.1	55	0
14	Aug_18_2016	33.15	34.45	34.57	35.32	35.33	35.66	35.82(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	70	12	62	5.29	53%	-0.15	16.1	3.07%	0	1.3	57	0
15	Aug_17_2016	33.2	34.36	34.27	34.99	34.94	35.54	35.75(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	27	120	22	43	8	53%	-0.12	3.4	3.08%	0	1.4	50	0

16	Aug_16_2016	33.24	34.31	33.96	34.52	34.47	35	35.9(2.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	21	100	23	15	9.38	54%	-0.12	-3.6	3.08%	0	1.7	51	0
17	Aug_15_2016	33.28	34.26	33.62	34.1	34.01	34.34	35.04(2.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	5	60	13	-18	7.14	54%	0.06	-10.2	3.07%	0	0.9	44	0
18	Aug_12_2016	33.26	34.25	33.56	33.8	33.89	33.95	34.11(-0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-2	20	8	-31	6.06	51%	-0.15	3.8	3.06%	0	-0.2	44	0
19	Aug_11_2016	33.31	34.29	33.59	33.7	33.77	33.67	34.15(2.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-7	-10	4	-40	7.67	50%	-0.21	29.1	3.12%	0	-0.2	41	0
20	Aug_10_2016	33.38	34.33	33.69	33.43	33.65	33.83	33.39(-1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-8	60	4	-42	5.88	51%	-0.24	51.7	3.13%	0	-1	48	0

21	Aug_9_2016	33.46	34.34	33.86	33.3	33.45	33.87	33.79(0.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	0	100	14	-42	7.31	51%	-0.27	78.7	3.14%	0	-0.6	44	0
22	Aug_8_2016	33.55	34.35	34.03	33.07	33.1	33.47	33.55(-0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-11	80	3	-51	7.14	51%	-0.27	74.2	3.14%	0	-0.6	42	0
23	Aug_5_2016	33.64	34.22	34.16	33.29	33.08	33.03	33.64(2.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-14	-30	-2	-49	16.44	51%	-0.21	67	3.14%	0	-0.4	42	0
24	Aug_4_2016	33.71	34.03	34.33	33.48	33.39	32.72	32.8(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	-150	-22	-50	6.38	49%	-0.27	62.4	3.13%	0	-0.6	37	0
25	Aug_3_2016	33.8	33.85	34.48	34	33.97	33.13	32.7(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-33	-180	-30	-42	8.25	49%		62.9	3.16%	0	-0.5	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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