Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Sep. 2, 2016

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $35.6833 (0.8%) ($35.1656 - $35.8494) on Fri. Sep. 2, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.06% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $35.6833(0.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(83%)    PEJ(63%)    IWN(55%)    XAR(54%)    XLF(54%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.53% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-15%)    VIXM(-12%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.53% (StdDev 3.06%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $35.61(0.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $35.59(0.26%)
20 Day Moving Average   $35.19(1.4%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   45%
Market Cap   $18.147b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 2.5% (three month std-dev: 3.06%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 0.52%(33%) Average negative next day return: -0.52%(67%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 1.08%(44%) Average negative next three day return: -1.81%(56%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 1.04%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.08%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161002

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_2_2016	32.85	35.19	35.59	35.61	35.51	35.48	35.68(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10	0	-0	5.43	54%	-0.15	64.4	3.06%	0	0.6	58	0
2	Sep_1_2016	32.9	35.09	35.58	35.55	35.48	35.56	35.4(-0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	10	-2	4	6.94	54%	-0.09	52.1	3.06%	0	0.3	64	0
3	Aug_31_2016	32.93	34.97	35.62	35.65	35.51	35.54	35.46(-2.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	5	-10	1	17	13.11	54%	-0.09	39.4	3.06%	0	0.4	65	0
4	Aug_30_2016	32.96	34.84	35.65	35.72	35.54	35.41	36.19(2.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	9	-40	1	32	14.51	54%	-0.03	28.6	3.05%	0	1.2	77	0
5	Aug_29_2016	32.97	34.67	35.62	35.59	35.59	35.47	35.33(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	7	-20	-3	38	4.76	54%	-0.06	15.2	3.06%	0	0.6	67	0

6	Aug_26_2016	32.99	34.63	35.6	35.56	35.64	35.67	35.39(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	10	-1	46	6.26	53%	-0.06	13.7	3.06%	0	0.7	69	0
7	Aug_25_2016	33.01	34.58	35.48	35.61	35.57	35.71	35.87(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	20	2	53	5.45	53%	-0.06	11.8	3.07%	0	1.2	73	0
8	Aug_24_2016	33.03	34.55	35.32	35.6	35.54	35.61	35.8(0.69%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	18	10	3	61	5.95	53%	-0.06	17.6	3.07%	0	1.2	78	0
9	Aug_23_2016	33.05	34.51	35.09	35.59	35.52	35.44	35.56(1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	15	-20	-2	64	5.4	53%	-0.09	18.7	3.07%	0	1	77	0
10	Aug_22_2016	33.08	34.5	34.92	35.66	35.56	35.46	35.17(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	17	-30	-2	75	5.19	53%	-0.09	23.4	3.07%	0	0.6	76	0

11	Aug_19_2016	33.11	34.48	34.77	35.63	35.57	35.61	35.64(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	24	0	7	73	6.68	53%	-0.12	21.8	3.07%	0	1.1	55	0
12	Aug_18_2016	33.15	34.45	34.57	35.32	35.33	35.66	35.82(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	70	12	62	5.29	53%	-0.15	16.1	3.07%	0	1.3	57	0
13	Aug_17_2016	33.2	34.36	34.27	34.99	34.94	35.54	35.75(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	27	120	22	43	8	53%	-0.12	3.4	3.08%	0	1.4	50	0
14	Aug_16_2016	33.24	34.31	33.96	34.52	34.47	35	35.9(2.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	21	100	23	15	9.38	54%	-0.12	-3.6	3.08%	0	1.7	51	0
15	Aug_15_2016	33.28	34.26	33.62	34.1	34.01	34.34	35.04(2.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	5	60	13	-18	7.14	54%	0.06	-10.2	3.07%	0	0.9	44	0

16	Aug_12_2016	33.26	34.25	33.56	33.8	33.89	33.95	34.11(-0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-2	20	8	-31	6.06	51%	-0.15	3.8	3.06%	0	-0.2	44	0
17	Aug_11_2016	33.31	34.29	33.59	33.7	33.77	33.67	34.15(2.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-7	-10	4	-40	7.67	50%	-0.21	29.1	3.12%	0	-0.2	41	0
18	Aug_10_2016	33.38	34.33	33.69	33.43	33.65	33.83	33.39(-1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-8	60	4	-42	5.88	51%	-0.24	51.7	3.13%	0	-1	48	0
19	Aug_9_2016	33.46	34.34	33.86	33.3	33.45	33.87	33.79(0.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	0	100	14	-42	7.31	51%	-0.27	78.7	3.14%	0	-0.6	44	0
20	Aug_8_2016	33.55	34.35	34.03	33.07	33.1	33.47	33.55(-0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-11	80	3	-51	7.14	51%	-0.27	74.2	3.14%	0	-0.6	42	0

21	Aug_5_2016	33.64	34.22	34.16	33.29	33.08	33.03	33.64(2.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-14	-30	-2	-49	16.44	51%	-0.21	67	3.14%	0	-0.4	42	0
22	Aug_4_2016	33.71	34.03	34.33	33.48	33.39	32.72	32.8(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	-150	-22	-50	6.38	49%	-0.27	62.4	3.13%	0	-0.6	37	0
23	Aug_3_2016	33.8	33.85	34.48	34	33.97	33.13	32.7(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-33	-180	-30	-42	8.25	49%	-0.24	62.9	3.16%	0	-0.5	37	0
24	Aug_2_2016	33.88	33.64	34.72	34.51	34.6	34.05	32.64(-5.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-25	-100	-27	-19	12.1	49%	-0.26	66.4	3.16%	0	-0.4	49	0
25	Aug_1_2016	33.97	33.45	34.99	35.1	35.05	34.82	34.67(0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-3	-50	-8	14	7.06	52%		79.2	3.08%	0	0.5	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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