Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 18, 2016

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $42.1846 (3.18%) ($40.5434 - $42.2720) on Fri. Mar. 18, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.13% (three month average)
RSI   66
Latest Price   $42.1846(3.18%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(84%)    PEJ(63%)    IWN(55%)    XLI(55%)    XAR(54%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.065% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-16%)    VIXM(-13%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-9%)    XME(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.065% (StdDev 2.13%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $41.28(2.19%)
10 Day Moving Average   $40.93(3.07%)
20 Day Moving Average   $40.5(4.16%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   22.2%
Market Cap   $21.453b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 2% (three month std-dev: 2.13%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 21 Average positive next day return: 0.61%(38%) Average negative next day return: -0.53%(62%) Sample size 21 Average positive next three day return: 1.48%(52%) Average negative next three day return: -1.24%(48%) Sample size 21 Average positive next weekly return: 2.34%(48%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.88%(52%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160418

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_18_2016	40.27	40.5	40.93	41.28	41.06	41.22	42.18(3.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	20	10	14	38	13.75	36%	-0.05	103.5	2.13%	0	2.1	66	0
2	Mar_17_2016	40.29	40.32	40.74	41.09	41.06	40.87	40.88(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	9	-30	1	31	5.96	32%	-0.07	118.2	2.14%	0	0.7	61	0
3	Mar_16_2016	40.32	40.2	40.72	41	40.99	40.91	41.09(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	-10	-0	30	4.79	32%	-0.1	116.7	2.15%	0	1	57	0
4	Mar_15_2016	40.36	40.06	40.65	40.87	40.9	41.1	40.89(-1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	17	40	11	36	4.45	32%	-0.12	113.3	2.15%	0	0.8	61	0
5	Mar_14_2016	40.41	39.9	40.62	40.61	40.64	41.06	41.36(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	70	16	38	4.57	32%	-0.05	122.1	2.16%	0	1.4	67	0

6	Mar_11_2016	40.43	39.67	40.46	40.52	40.27	40.7	41.24(2.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	21	60	16	36	5.7	30%	-0.1	110.3	2.17%	0	1.4	61	0
7	Mar_10_2016	40.47	39.4	40.31	40.36	40.15	40.23	40.43(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	14	-0	7	33	5.81	30%	-0.05	83	2.23%	0	0.7	64	0
8	Mar_9_2016	40.49	39.19	40.28	40.41	40.19	39.83	40.45(2.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	5	-80	-7	41	8.55	30%	-0.07	75.9	2.23%	0	0.8	66	0
9	Mar_8_2016	40.52	38.94	40.19	40.4	40.32	40.07	39.59(-3.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-2	-50	-17	45	8.42	29%	-0.1	66.4	2.23%	0	0.4	63	0
10	Mar_7_2016	40.56	38.7	40.17	40.6	40.48	40.54	40.91(1.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	22	0	4	74	6.96	30%	-0.02	54	2.22%	0	1.1	79	0

11	Mar_4_2016	40.57	38.44	40.04	40.38	40.47	40.58	40.43(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	30	30	10	89	9.47	34%	-0.07	45.6	2.22%	0	1	81	0
12	Mar_3_2016	40.6	38.26	39.87	40.24	40.24	40.42	40.67(0.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	29	30	5	101	8.81	34%	-0.02	45.1	2.28%	0	1.2	87	0
13	Mar_2_2016	40.61	38.04	39.64	40.14	40.09	40.36	40.39(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	40	13	118	7.91	34%	-0.05	40.1	2.28%	0	1.2	78	0
14	Mar_1_2016	40.63	37.81	39.43	39.95	39.95	40.05	40.62(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	46	20	16	135	7.89	39%	-0.05	31.9	2.29%	0	1.5	83	0
15	Feb_29_2016	40.65	37.66	39.12	39.67	39.62	39.81	39.82(0.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	35	30	1	138	5.79	39%	-0.02	31.2	2.34%	0	1.2	83	0

16	Feb_26_2016	40.66	37.55	38.83	39.64	39.52	39.85	39.69(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	50	50	15	154	7.47	39%	0.02	29.4	2.34%	0	1.3	72	0
17	Feb_25_2016	40.65	37.4	38.42	39.43	39.37	39.43	40.16(1.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	48	10	17	140	6.94	39%	0.05	22.6	2.36%	0	1.7	63	0
18	Feb_24_2016	40.63	37.29	38.01	39.07	39.02	39.19	39.48(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	30	5	124	6.1	38%	0.07	19.6	2.35%	0	1.5	64	0
19	Feb_23_2016	40.6	37.22	37.59	38.82	38.81	39.32	39.21(-1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	90	21	118	6.43	38%	0.02	17.8	2.37%	0	1.4	65	0
20	Feb_22_2016	40.59	37.13	37.12	38.47	38.51	38.85	39.66(2.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	45	60	31	88	10	38%	0.05	12.2	2.36%	0	1.9	54	0

21	Feb_19_2016	40.57	37.06	36.7	37.89	37.97	38.31	38.61(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	31	70	24	50	11.05	35%	0.02	-1.2	2.34%	0	1.2	52	0
22	Feb_18_2016	40.56	37.04	36.51	37.25	37.43	38.18	38.4(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	31	150	31	29	9.61	35%	0.02	-15.9	2.34%	0	1.1	55	0
23	Feb_17_2016	40.55	37	36.28	36.78	36.75	37.63	38.2(1.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	32	170	42	1	8.43	35%	0	-37	2.35%	0	1	48	0
24	Feb_16_2016	40.55	37	36.03	36.17	36.2	36.68	37.49(2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	20	100	40	-40	7.15	35%	0.05	-58.9	2.34%	0	0.4	46	0
25	Feb_12_2016	40.53	36.96	36.05	35.58	35.57	35.87	36.73(3.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-8	60	14	-72	9.41	35%		-77.8	2.31%	0	-0.2	46	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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