Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 3, 2015

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $41.9052 (-1.26%) ($41.5662 - $43.1932) on Thu. Dec. 3, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.98% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $41.9052(-1.26%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL declines -0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(84%)    PEJ(64%)    IWN(55%)    XLF(55%)    XLI(55%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -0.99% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.99% (StdDev 1.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $41.31(1.44%)
10 Day Moving Average   $40.96(2.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $41.65(0.61%)
To recent high   -6.9%
To recent low   13.7%
Market Cap   $21.311b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 3.1% (three month std-dev: 1.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.34%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.61%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -4.35%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.78%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.79%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160103

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_3_2015	40.77	41.65	40.96	41.31	41.51	42.42	41.91(-1.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	170	32	11	7.24	59%	0.05	-59	1.98%	0	0.2	44	0
2	Dec_2_2015	40.75	41.75	40.8	40.93	41.02	41.8	42.44(1.29%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.1	37	140	53	-13	8.01	64%	0.05	-63	1.98%	0	0.5	43	0
3	Dec_1_2015	40.73	41.86	40.63	40.43	40.37	40.59	41.9(4.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-2	30	17	-58	8.91	64%	0.02	-65.1	2.11%	0	0	39	0
4	Nov_30_2015	40.72	42	40.57	40.25	40.07	40.25	39.96(-1.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-26	20	-4	-90	6.45	60%	0	-63.9	2.01%	0	-1.2	19	0
5	Nov_27_2015	40.72	42.23	40.77	40.43	40.25	40.14	40.38(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-23	-30	1	-94	3.07	60%	0.12	-59.8	2.01%	0	-1.1	18	0

6	Nov_25_2015	40.67	42.43	40.98	40.55	40.42	39.88	40.01(0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-40	-100	-17	-107	4.28	63%	0.02	-59.3	2.04%	0	-1.4	12	0
7	Nov_24_2015	40.66	42.65	41.27	40.63	40.65	40.35	39.93(-2.53%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-46	-50	-23	-114	7.58	57%	0.02	-56.1	2.04%	0	-1.6	11	0
8	Nov_23_2015	40.65	42.91	41.58	40.84	40.83	40.96	40.97(0.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-29	20	-3	-107	4.17	60%	0.02	-51.6	2.12%	0	-1.2	11	0
9	Nov_20_2015	40.64	43.1	41.8	40.94	40.94	40.94	40.87(-0.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0	-28	0	-1	-109	5.66	51%	0.07	-46.9	2.23%	0	-1.5	12	0
10	Nov_19_2015	40.61	43.28	42.1	41.18	40.98	40.71	40.97(1.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-40	-60	-16	-110	6.55	51%	0.07	-39.7	2.27%	0	-1.6	16	0

11	Nov_18_2015	40.58	43.46	42.41	41.49	41.32	40.94	40.43(-1.3%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-45	-80	-25	-106	11.07	51%	0.05	-31.7	2.26%	0	-2.3	15	0
12	Nov_17_2015	40.56	43.6	42.8	42.01	41.87	41.25	40.97(-1.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-42	-110	-25	-92	9.6	53%	0.07	-23.4	2.26%	0	-2.3	17	0
13	Nov_16_2015	40.53	43.73	43.21	42.43	42.33	41.69	41.48(-1.43%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-44	-110	-32	-81	10.2	53%	0.05	-9.3	2.27%	0	-2.3	16	0
14	Nov_13_2015	40.51	43.82	43.55	42.78	42.84	42.49	42.08(-1.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-33	-50	-22	-66	7.49	53%	0.02	3.8	2.27%	0	-1.9	18	0
15	Nov_12_2015	40.5	43.85	43.82	43.15	43.15	42.98	42.52(-1.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-25	-30	-16	-50	5.95	53%	0.05	22.4	2.26%	0	-1.5	35	0

16	Nov_11_2015	40.48	43.89	44.01	43.48	43.48	43.19	42.99(-0.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-18	-50	-11	-38	4.42	53%	0.05	57.1	2.26%	0	-1	36	0
17	Nov_10_2015	40.46	43.87	44.16	43.72	43.7	43.33	43.09(-0.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-23	-60	-21	-27	5.94	53%	0.02	82.2	2.28%	0	-0.8	56	0
18	Nov_9_2015	40.45	43.82	44.34	44.11	44.02	43.76	43.24(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-16	-50	-19	-5	7.21	53%	0.07	115.6	2.28%	0	-0.6	53	0
19	Nov_6_2015	40.42	43.79	44.52	44.44	44.45	44.07	43.91(-0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-3	-60	-10	20	11.67	53%	0.15	124.2	2.28%	0	0.1	61	0
20	Nov_5_2015	40.36	43.66	44.55	44.59	44.66	44.28	44.16(-0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-2	-50	-14	34	5.87	53%	0.15	104.4	2.29%	0	0.3	68	0

21	Nov_4_2015	40.3	43.39	44.59	44.62	44.77	44.83	44.19(-1.87%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	9	20	-4	49	8.08	53%	0.15	87.9	2.29%	0	0.4	60	0
22	Nov_3_2015	40.24	43.11	44.47	44.65	44.7	45.03	45.03(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	60	10	59	6.98	56%	0.15	75.6	2.29%	0	0.8	70	0
23	Nov_2_2015	40.18	42.72	44.3	44.65	44.49	44.71	44.91(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	22	30	8	65	6.19	56%	0.15	71.7	2.34%	0	0.9	71	0
24	Oct_30_2015	40.12	42.42	44.11	44.62	44.46	44.37	44.67(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	21	-20	5	69	8.59	56%	0.15	70.1	2.34%	0	0.9	66	0
25	Oct_29_2015	40.06	42.07	43.88	44.52	44.4	44.27	44.32(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	13	-30	-6	69	5.23	56%		64.6	2.35%	0	0.9	71	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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