Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 19, 2015

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $53.1011 (1.96%) ($52.3892 - $53.1493) on Thu. Mar. 19, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.44% (three month average)
RSI   79
Latest Price   $53.1011(1.96%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 2.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLI(55%)    XAR(54%)    XLF(54%)    IWM(53%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.22% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-9%)    UUP(-8%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.22% (StdDev 2.44%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $50.5(5.15%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.38(9.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.98(10.67%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   18.6%
Market Cap   $27.005b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 4.44% (three month std-dev: 2.44%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.99%(55%) Average negative next day return: -1.57%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 5.26%(55%) Average negative next three day return: -1.35%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 5.35%(55%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.28%(45%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150419

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_19_2015	46.95	47.98	48.38	50.5	51	52.34	53.1(1.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	74	210	54	134	18.9	48%	0.32	47.5	2.44%	0	2.4	79	0
2	Mar_18_2015	46.8	47.69	47.68	49.25	49.57	51.57	52.08(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	85	300	79	104	21.32	48%	0.3	42.4	2.43%	0	2.5	66	0
3	Mar_17_2015	46.66	47.43	47.14	47.95	48.18	49.66	51.66(6.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	79	230	84	65	41.84	48%	0.3	29.7	2.45%	0	2.8	63	0
4	Mar_16_2015	46.52	47.14	46.61	46.62	46.72	47.58	48.32(2.03%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.4	26	140	37	-6	10.9	39%	0.24	11.7	2.3%	0	1	41	0
5	Mar_13_2015	46.41	47.05	46.41	46.17	46.02	46.7	47.36(1.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	10	90	25	-37	9.19	39%	0.24	2.4	2.39%	0	0.3	37	0

6	Mar_12_2015	46.3	46.99	46.27	45.94	45.8	45.86	46.84(2.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-8	0	11	-65	7.13	39%	0.24	-6.2	2.41%	0	-0.1	36	0
7	Mar_11_2015	46.19	46.94	46.32	45.88	45.84	45.35	45.6(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-34	-80	-18	-82	6.63	39%	0.22	-13.6	2.39%	0	-1.1	38	0
8	Mar_10_2015	46.09	46.98	46.54	46.18	46.19	45.75	44.97(-2.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-37	-70	-24	-74	9.34	39%	0.26	-4.7	2.42%	0	-1.7	38	0
9	Mar_9_2015	45.97	47	46.99	46.57	46.58	46.34	46.11(-0.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-17	-40	-8	-42	7.46	38%	0.33	-3.1	2.4%	0	-0.7	52	0
10	Mar_6_2015	45.82	47.02	47.3	46.65	46.66	46.63	46.18(-0.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-9	-0	-3	-25	7	38%	0.33	-4.2	2.46%	0	-0.7	50	0

11	Mar_5_2015	45.67	47.06	47.59	46.63	46.65	46.82	46.56(-1.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-3	30	-0	-11	7.04	38%	0.37	-16.9	2.48%	0	-0.4	55	0
12	Mar_4_2015	45.5	47.11	47.73	46.81	46.62	46.69	47.1(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	-0	-1	3	6.71	38%	0.38	-16.9	2.5%	0	-0	60	0
13	Mar_3_2015	45.33	47.11	47.78	46.96	46.88	46.47	46.92(0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-11	-70	-17	7	9.05	38%	0.47	-30.5	2.53%	0	-0.1	56	0
14	Mar_2_2015	45.12	47.04	47.73	47.49	47.4	46.55	46.48(0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-18	-130	-31	23	11.48	38%	0.38	-42.1	2.53%	0	-0.4	62	0
15	Feb_27_2015	44.95	47.07	47.77	48.07	47.99	47.3	46.09(-2.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.6	-17	-110	-35	37	9.4	44%	0.38	-52.9	2.68%	0	-0.8	51	0

16	Feb_26_2015	44.78	47.26	47.8	48.67	48.71	48.24	47.48(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	7	-70	-11	61	7.58	46%	0.36	-45.9	2.68%	0	0.2	53	0
17	Feb_25_2015	44.62	47.31	47.66	48.75	48.83	48.67	47.85(-3.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	9	-20	-8	58	9.58	46%	0.36	-53	2.68%	0	0.4	51	0
18	Feb_24_2015	44.46	47.43	47.5	48.67	48.77	49.18	49.57(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	32	70	19	72	13.92	48%	0.38	-49.6	2.65%	0	1.3	67	0
19	Feb_23_2015	44.29	47.57	47.02	48	48.34	48.98	49.37(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	34	110	29	50	9.51	48%	0.34	-37.3	2.65%	0	0.9	59	0
20	Feb_20_2015	44.14	47.73	46.7	47.44	47.61	48.35	49.09(2.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	30	120	29	31	10.54	48%	0.39	-27.6	2.67%	0	0.6	56	0

21	Feb_19_2015	43.97	47.91	46.45	46.83	47	47.69	47.9(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	23	110	30	2	11.46	48%	0.37	-21.1	2.65%	0	-0	41	0
22	Feb_18_2015	43.81	48.08	46.38	46.41	46.31	46.86	47.44(2.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	7	80	16	-20	8.75	50%	0.32	-19.6	2.67%	0	-0.2	46	0
23	Feb_17_2015	43.67	48.23	46.19	46.17	46.14	46.31	46.19(-0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	1	20	17	-48	7.26	48%	0.51	-17.2	2.67%	0	-0.7	36	0
24	Feb_13_2015	43.45	48.33	46.25	45.88	45.94	45.76	46.56(1.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-23	-20	0	-91	9.9	48%	0.32	-23.8	2.65%	0	-0.6	31	0
25	Feb_12_2015	43.31	48.39	46.29	45.84	45.65	45.97	46.07(0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-38	40	-9	-123	9.54	48%		-31.3	2.65%	0	-0.9	29	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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