Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jan. 23, 2015

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $53.4739 (0.18%) ($52.6193 - $53.7523) on Fri. Jan. 23, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.25% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $53.4739(0.18%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 2.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XAR(54%)    XLF(54%)    XLI(54%)    IWM(53%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.125% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-9%)    UUP(-8%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.125% (StdDev 2.25%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.37(4.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $49.88(7.21%)
20 Day Moving Average   $50.37(6.16%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   45.1%
Market Cap   $27.194b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 3.63% (three month std-dev: 2.25%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 1.86%(57%) Average negative next day return: -1.34%(43%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 3.67%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 6.43%(71%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.74%(29%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_23_2015	41.61	50.37	49.88	51.37	51.64	53.02	53.47(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	60	200	67	38	9.49	63%	0.41	44.6	2.25%	0	1.7	54	0
2	Jan_22_2015	41.44	50.1	49.62	50.17	50.17	51.86	53.38(3.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	57	240	74	5	16.2	63%	0.41	33.3	2.28%	0	1.9	55	0
3	Jan_21_2015	41.27	49.86	49.31	48.98	48.83	50.26	51.53(1.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	37	200	62	-37	12.88	66%	0.32	16	2.28%	0	1.1	50	0
4	Jan_20_2015	41.14	49.71	49.21	48.35	47.93	48.48	50.65(5.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	13	50	37	-60	15.16	69%	0.32	6.6	2.43%	0	0.6	49	0
5	Jan_16_2015	41.01	49.59	49.28	47.74	47.62	47.4	47.83(0.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-30	-40	-10	-90	12.98	68%	0.27	-5.1	2.4%	0	-1.1	41	0

6	Jan_15_2015	40.9	49.57	49.67	48.17	47.85	47.37	47.44(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-44	-90	-33	-77	10.4	68%	0.27	2.3	2.44%	0	-1.4	43	0
7	Jan_14_2015	40.79	49.53	50.08	48.98	48.69	47.84	47.44(-1.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-37	-140	-35	-43	15.68	73%	0.25	15.7	2.44%	0	-1.3	51	0
8	Jan_13_2015	40.69	49.53	50.49	49.68	49.74	48.33	48.39(1.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-32	-190	-37	-15	12.26	66%	0.27	26.4	2.69%	0	-0.7	51	0
9	Jan_12_2015	40.58	49.61	50.75	50.18	50.38	49.54	47.61(-4.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-35	-100	-47	1	18.26	66%	0.25	32.7	2.87%	0	-1.2	49	0
10	Jan_9_2015	40.48	49.67	51.03	51.01	51.14	51.14	49.95(-3.06%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	4	10	-9	43	12.35	64%	0.3	50	2.84%	0	0.2	65	0

11	Jan_8_2015	40.36	49.53	51	51.37	51.42	51.23	51.52(1.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	18	-20	1	67	9.67	64%	0.32	58.1	2.84%	0	1.2	82	0
12	Jan_7_2015	40.23	49.28	50.69	51.36	51.49	51.13	50.9(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	10	-40	-11	71	10.07	62%	0.32	58.7	2.89%	0	0.9	83	0
13	Jan_6_2015	40.1	49.17	50.49	51.44	51.69	51.61	50.93(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	17	0	-3	78	13.77	59%	0.3	65.7	2.91%	0	1	60	0
14	Jan_5_2015	39.98	49.06	50.28	51.41	51.64	51.85	51.73(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	40	11	87	11.57	59%	0.38	74.1	2.95%	0	1.5	66	0
15	Jan_2_2015	39.83	48.85	49.92	51.04	51.21	51.77	51.76(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	33	90	17	79	10.76	62%	0.43	87.6	3.04%	0	1.8	63	0

16	Dec_31_2014	39.66	48.57	49.44	50.56	50.66	51.42	51.5(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	39	110	28	73	11.06	60%	0.41	96.8	3.05%	0	1.9	67	0
17	Dec_30_2014	39.5	48.29	48.9	49.9	49.98	50.65	51.29(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	33	100	25	57	8.06	60%	0.38	103.3	3.09%	0	2.1	69	0
18	Dec_29_2014	39.35	48.02	48.62	49.41	49.33	49.9	50.75(1.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	25	80	18	44	8.79	59%	0.41	117.4	3.09%	0	2	55	0
19	Dec_26_2014	39.19	47.8	48.33	49	49.06	49.31	49.89(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	21	40	17	31	6.84	59%	0.46	138	3.12%	0	1.7	52	0
20	Dec_24_2014	39.01	47.48	48.17	48.65	48.68	48.76	49.38(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	14	10	10	24	5.96	58%	0.36	110.6	3.12%	0	1.3	56	0

21	Dec_23_2014	38.87	47.14	47.93	48.14	48.26	48.81	48.21(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	15	90	14	17	7.17	58%	0.28	82.9	3.12%	0	0.6	58	0
22	Dec_22_2014	38.76	46.83	47.75	48.14	47.69	48.61	48.82(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	16	130	18	10	8.87	56%	0.31	62.6	3.11%	0	0.9	61	0
23	Dec_19_2014	38.64	46.48	47.75	47.71	47.29	47.72	48.69(1.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	17	40	16	20	26.79	54%	0.29	56.5	3.14%	0	0.9	61	0
24	Dec_18_2014	38.53	46.18	47.73	47.57	47.36	46.78	48.14(2.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-1	-100	-6	16	16.95	54%	0.29	53.2	3.19%	0	0.8	56	0
25	Dec_17_2014	38.42	45.89	47.68	47.65	47.73	46.86	46.86(1.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-9	-120	-22	29	24.78	54%		54.3	3.18%	0	0.4	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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