Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 11, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $48.5192 (3.25%) ($47.6742 - $49.4506) on Thu. Dec. 11, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.1% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $48.5192(3.25%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 6.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLF(54%)    XLI(54%)    XAR(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.55% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    UUP(-7%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.55% (StdDev 3.1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $47.94(1.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.26(2.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $44.92(8.01%)
To recent high   -0.9%
To recent low   77.2%
Market Cap   $24.675b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 5.79% (three month std-dev: 3.1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 17 Average positive next day return: 1.22%(29%) Average negative next day return: -1.44%(71%) Sample size 17 Average positive next three day return: 6.41%(59%) Average negative next three day return: -5.94%(41%) Sample size 17 Average positive next weekly return: 7.3%(65%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.31%(35%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150111

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_11_2014	38.09	44.92	47.26	47.94	47.75	47.87	48.52(3.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	44	10	16	127	15.1	59%	0.21	64.1	3.1%	0	1.4	73	0
2	Dec_10_2014	38.01	44.57	46.75	47.77	47.83	46.98	46.99(1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	24	-120	-9	121	18.5	57%	0.16	66.5	3.09%	0	1	70	0
3	Dec_9_2014	37.95	44.31	46.33	47.63	47.92	47.62	46.39(-4.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	19	-30	-14	116	20.58	57%	0.16	67.3	3.09%	0	0.8	63	0
4	Dec_8_2014	37.89	44.09	45.88	47.55	47.76	48.68	48.8(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	50	150	22	133	16.17	60%	0.21	71	3.02%	0	1.9	77	0
5	Dec_5_2014	37.81	43.71	45.17	46.98	47.1	48.21	48.98(2.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	57	170	35	124	15.59	60%	0.24	74.4	3.02%	0	2.3	76	0

6	Dec_4_2014	37.72	43.31	44.49	46.5	46.56	46.84	47.67(2.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	52	50	31	114	15.23	60%	0.16	86.7	3.02%	0	2.2	72	0
7	Dec_3_2014	37.66	42.94	43.93	45.61	46.14	45.99	46.32(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	33	10	14	89	8.92	58%	0.13	88.9	3.02%	0	1.9	72	0
8	Dec_2_2014	37.61	42.67	43.6	44.82	45.4	46.27	45.96(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	37	170	23	79	11.85	60%	0.13	90.6	3.05%	0	2	71	0
9	Dec_1_2014	37.56	42.38	43.19	43.93	44.38	46.29	45.97(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.4	57	330	53	68	15.15	60%	0.13	88.8	3.09%	0	2.4	68	0
10	Nov_28_2014	37.51	42.06	42.79	43.05	43.18	44.53	46.6(7.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.6	55	230	56	51	21.64	60%	0.08	86.1	3.08%	0	3.3	73	0

11	Nov_26_2014	37.48	41.65	42.32	42.21	42.19	42.48	43.18(1.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	17	50	16	18	12.8	56%	0.13	79.8	2.91%	0	1.2	63	0
12	Nov_25_2014	37.43	41.41	42.17	42.04	41.99	41.83	42.39(2.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-2	-30	-6	10	11.56	56%	0.11	82.8	2.91%	0	0.7	65	0
13	Nov_24_2014	37.39	41.23	42.11	42.22	42.2	41.9	41.49(-0.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-2	-50	-8	18	9.58	56%	0.11	87.7	2.9%	0	0.2	56	0
14	Nov_21_2014	37.35	41.08	42.17	42.31	42.46	42.15	41.59(-1.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	1	-40	-8	29	10.87	55%	0.05	97.4	2.9%	0	0.3	62	0
15	Nov_20_2014	37.33	40.92	42.18	42.31	42.49	42.5	42.4(0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	7	10	-5	43	9.43	55%	0.05	106.6	2.91%	0	0.8	71	0

16	Nov_19_2014	37.31	40.65	42.08	42.44	42.52	42.78	42.35(-2.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	22	50	9	62	11.29	55%	0.03	106.9	2.91%	0	0.8	76	0
17	Nov_18_2014	37.3	40.33	41.92	42.31	42.35	42.48	43.26(3.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	27	20	12	72	14.22	57%	0.05	112.1	2.9%	0	1.4	85	0
18	Nov_17_2014	37.28	39.98	41.68	42	42.06	42.26	41.95(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	19	40	1	72	8.69	55%	0	110.6	2.91%	0	0.8	78	0
19	Nov_14_2014	37.28	39.59	41.53	42.02	42.02	42.23	42.26(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	31	30	11	89	8.75	57%	-0.03	106.8	2.91%	0	0.9	82	0
20	Nov_13_2014	37.29	39.1	41.28	41.87	41.77	41.86	42.36(1.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	27	10	6	91	11.13	57%	0.03	99.9	2.94%	0	1	83	0

21	Nov_12_2014	37.28	38.58	40.93	41.68	41.58	41.81	41.7(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	30	30	7	98	7.71	57%	0	91.3	2.94%	0	0.9	86	0
22	Nov_11_2014	37.28	38.03	40.6	41.45	41.53	41.67	41.71(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	35	30	10	109	11.05	58%	0	82.2	2.95%	0	1	89	0
23	Nov_10_2014	37.28	37.47	40.29	41.31	41.28	41.34	42.09(1.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	33	10	5	117	13.17	58%	-0.03	70.4	2.96%	0	1.1	82	0
24	Nov_7_2014	37.29	36.76	39.9	40.96	41.27	41.4	41.48(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	43	40	12	136	9.02	58%	0	59.8	2.95%	0	1.1	87	0
25	Nov_6_2014	37.29	36.17	39.56	40.61	40.94	41.22	41.42(2.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	52	70	15	162	14.48	58%		52	2.96%	0	1.2	89	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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