Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Oct. 22, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $35.4770 (-2.14%) ($35.3812 - $36.6072) on Wed. Oct. 22, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.98% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $35.4770(-2.14%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 3.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLI(54%)    XAR(53%)    XLF(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.49% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    UUP(-7%)    SHY(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.49% (StdDev 2.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $33.8(4.96%)
10 Day Moving Average   $31.85(11.39%)
20 Day Moving Average   $32.51(9.13%)
To recent high   -14.3%
To recent low   29.6%
Market Cap   $18.042b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 6.49% (three month std-dev: 2.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 5.3%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -3.53%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -8.83%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_22_2014	37.41	32.51	31.85	33.8	34.2	35.69	35.48(-2.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	60	340	58	65	18.96	50%	-0.11	-7.1	2.98%	0	1.4	57	0
2	Oct_21_2014	37.45	32.44	31.41	32.78	32.81	34.32	36.25(7.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	57	320	68	25	26.35	50%	-0.08	-24	2.97%	0	1.9	57	0
3	Oct_20_2014	37.48	32.44	30.98	31.56	31.38	32.71	33.73(5.51%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.1	41	280	65	-30	13.53	46%	-0.13	-49.1	2.81%	0	0.8	49	0
4	Oct_17_2014	37.53	32.29	30.89	30.29	30.39	31.3	31.97(1.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	12	220	45	-88	16.01	43%	-0.16	-67.7	2.75%	0	-0.2	46	0
5	Oct_16_2014	37.59	32.43	31.12	29.79	29.48	30.05	31.58(4.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-17	100	16	-116	24.99	43%	-0.19	-70.9	2.78%	0	-0.4	42	0

6	Oct_15_2014	37.66	32.66	31.19	29.6	29.32	29.49	30.35(0.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-35	10	0	-141	39.94	41%	-0.19	-71.2	2.72%	0	-1	41	0
7	Oct_14_2014	37.73	32.93	31.45	29.85	29.74	28.9	30.18(10.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-57	-210	-25	-153	28.15	41%	-0.21	-69.8	2.73%	0	-1.2	38	0
8	Oct_13_2014	37.81	33.24	31.82	30.35	30.49	29.15	27.37(-7.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-101	-290	-76	-175	34.53	34%	-0.26	-66.8	2.39%	0	-2.7	30	0
9	Oct_10_2014	37.91	33.67	32.48	31.57	31.61	30.59	29.48(-3.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-87	-220	-71	-135	31.02	37%	-0.18	-68.1	2.24%	0	-2.4	34	0
10	Oct_9_2014	37.98	34.02	32.99	32.61	32.7	31.82	30.63(-3.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-48	-180	-37	-82	22.64	42%	-0.18	-61.2	2.23%	0	-2.2	33	0

11	Oct_8_2014	38.05	34.32	33.32	32.98	33.34	32.64	31.61(-3.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-43	-110	-30	-82	22.75	43%	-0.13	-60.9	2.27%	0	-1.9	32	0
12	Oct_7_2014	38.1	34.59	33.63	33.25	33.34	33.59	32.65(-2.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-33	40	-18	-76	10.03	43%	-0.1	-62.6	2.24%	0	-1.4	38	0
13	Oct_6_2014	38.14	34.77	33.76	33.52	33.5	34.05	33.46(-3.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-6	110	15	-69	12.79	44%	-0.08	-66.8	2.27%	0	-1	38	0
14	Oct_3_2014	38.17	34.93	33.82	33.53	33.39	33.42	34.7(6.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-11	-10	12	-81	15.08	46%	-0.05	-70.4	2.25%	0	-0.2	46	0
15	Oct_2_2014	38.19	35	33.83	33.48	33.34	32.95	32.5(-1.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-44	-90	-21	-114	21.48	39%	-0.13	-73.5	2.07%	0	-1.8	33	0

16	Oct_1_2014	38.24	35.23	34.22	33.72	33.64	33.36	32.94(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-41	-70	-21	-101	19.45	40%	-0.13	-73.9	2.13%	0	-1.7	33	0
17	Sep_30_2014	38.29	35.46	34.51	34.05	33.88	33.74	33.98(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-27	-40	-6	-90	10.66	41%	-0.08	-64.5	2.12%	0	-1.1	34	0
18	Sep_29_2014	38.32	35.69	34.74	34.02	34.03	33.93	33.55(-2.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-27	-20	-5	-92	7.49	41%	-0.08	-63.5	2.13%	0	-1.6	36	0
19	Sep_26_2014	38.35	35.88	34.95	34.13	34.01	34.03	34.41(2.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-31	-10	-8	-98	8.52	42%	-0.08	-68.3	2.11%	0	-1.1	38	0
20	Sep_25_2014	38.38	36.03	35.11	34.26	34.17	34.13	33.72(-2.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-39	-20	-18	-100	10.93	42%	-0.03	-68.2	2.1%	0	-1.8	37	0

21	Sep_24_2014	38.39	36.22	35.39	34.81	34.63	33.99	34.6(2.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-35	-140	-20	-81	8.49	42%	-0.03	-67.2	2.1%	0	-1.4	37	0
22	Sep_23_2014	38.4	36.37	35.62	35.07	35.13	34.22	33.84(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-57	-180	-47	-86	12.15	40%	-0.03	-69.3	2.09%	0	-2.2	29	0
23	Sep_22_2014	38.41	36.57	35.89	35.57	35.72	35.27	34.08(-2.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-41	-80	-30	-75	10.97	40%	-0.03	-71.4	2.09%	0	-2.5	25	0
24	Sep_19_2014	38.42	36.78	36.15	35.86	36.01	36.04	35.08(-3.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-21	20	-8	-58	17.59	45%	0.03	-70.7	2.12%	0	-1.9	40	0
25	Sep_18_2014	38.41	36.93	36.28	36.05	35.99	36.17	36.44(1.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-11	30	4	-56	4.56	47%		-71.7	2.08%	0	-0.6	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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