Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 22, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $36.9923 (1.04%) ($36.5911 - $37.1452) on Thu. May. 22, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.18% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $36.9923(1.04%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(64%)    XLI(54%)    XAR(53%)    XLF(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.09% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    SHY(-7%)    UUP(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.09% (StdDev 2.18%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $36.76(0.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $36.9(0.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $35.88(3.1%)
To recent high   -1.7%
To recent low   16%
Market Cap   $18.813b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 3.51% (three month std-dev: 2.18%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.27%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.47%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.21%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_22_2014	35.12	35.88	36.9	36.76	36.76	36.75	36.99(1.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-0	5	49	6.41	65%	0.11	42.2	2.18%	0	0.9	73	INF
2	May_21_2014	35.08	35.81	36.86	36.66	36.69	36.68	36.61(0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	11	0	-4	54	6.57	65%	0.09	47.1	2.2%	0	0.6	72	INF
3	May_20_2014	35.05	35.75	36.77	36.76	36.66	36.78	36.53(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	15	10	-5	73	6.29	65%	0.09	62	2.23%	0	0.6	79	INF
4	May_19_2014	35.02	35.65	36.64	36.96	36.78	36.7	36.85(0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	22	-30	-2	92	7.17	65%	0.11	75.8	2.25%	0	0.9	76	INF
5	May_16_2014	34.98	35.51	36.47	37.12	36.93	36.53	36.81(0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	21	-90	-8	108	7.06	65%	0.11	88.2	2.27%	0	1	77	INF

6	May_15_2014	34.94	35.36	36.28	37.07	37.09	36.86	36.49(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	20	-40	-10	111	10.68	65%	0.11	87.7	2.29%	0	0.9	66	INF
7	May_14_2014	34.9	35.23	36.12	37.08	37.08	37.33	37.11(-1.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	38	50	12	117	7.99	65%	0.14	84.2	2.3%	0	1.5	58	INF
8	May_13_2014	34.85	34.99	35.78	36.77	36.79	37.31	37.56(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	47	100	30	99	8.68	65%	0.2	66.1	2.32%	0	1.9	62	INF
9	May_12_2014	34.78	34.71	35.41	36.26	36.22	36.83	37.63(2.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	42	110	31	76	12.44	65%	0.2	46.9	2.35%	0	2.1	67	INF
10	May_9_2014	34.71	34.43	34.99	35.73	35.74	36.26	36.55(0.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	34	100	28	51	9.7	63%	0.14	28.8	2.34%	0	1.7	66	NAN

11	May_8_2014	34.66	34.28	34.76	35.39	35.29	35.61	36.54(2.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	25	50	20	38	14.45	63%	0.14	15.7	2.37%	0	1.9	67	NAN
12	May_7_2014	34.61	34.2	34.64	35.04	34.98	35.23	35.56(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	22	40	18	34	7.8	61%	0.06	4.7	2.36%	0	1.3	62	NAN
13	May_6_2014	34.59	34.13	34.6	34.63	34.8	34.97	35.03(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	50	15	38	9.49	61%	0.03	-14.1	2.38%	0	0.9	70	NAN
14	May_5_2014	34.58	34.08	34.55	34.41	34.44	34.73	34.97(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	20	60	12	45	5.82	61%	0.03	-24.3	2.41%	0	0.9	71	NAN
15	May_2_2014	34.57	34.07	34.46	34.13	34.2	34.63	34.86(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	23	90	14	48	6.99	61%	0.03	-27	2.45%	0	0.8	68	NAN

16	May_1_2014	34.56	34.1	34.36	34.04	34.03	34.15	34.77(3.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	12	20	2	41	11.5	61%	0.03	-22.2	2.49%	0	0.6	55	NAN
17	Apr_30_2014	34.55	34.15	34.28	34.2	34.13	33.78	33.51(-1.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-5	-80	-18	33	6.95	57%	-0.09	-13.3	2.43%	0	-0.6	42	NAN
18	Apr_29_2014	34.58	34.28	34.18	34.59	34.58	33.91	33.93(1%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-6	-140	-19	34	8.99	57%	-0.06	-3.7	2.46%	0	-0.3	48	NAN
19	Apr_28_2014	34.6	34.33	34	34.71	34.99	34.47	33.59(-2.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-8	-80	-19	25	13.15	57%	-0.12	-1.4	2.5%	0	-0.6	48	NAN
20	Apr_25_2014	34.64	34.35	33.88	34.81	35.1	35.25	34.39(-3.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	6	50	1	20	9.58	57%	-0.03	-1.7	2.5%	0	0	47	NAN

21	Apr_24_2014	34.65	34.34	33.8	34.7	34.82	35.51	35.6(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	150	25	12	21.04	62%	0.12	-7.4	2.46%	0	1	48	NAN
22	Apr_23_2014	34.61	34.3	33.73	34.36	34.37	34.95	35.44(2.57%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	28	120	38	-1	14.65	62%	0.09	-16.9	2.51%	0	1	45	NAN
23	Apr_22_2014	34.58	34.32	33.6	33.72	33.83	34.13	34.55(1.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	11	70	28	-42	8.94	60%	0	-28.8	2.51%	0	0.2	40	NAN
24	Apr_21_2014	34.58	34.35	33.54	33.18	33.18	33.79	34.08(0.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-4	130	19	-71	7.19	60%	-0.06	-43.5	2.54%	0	-0.2	46	NAN
25	Apr_17_2014	34.6	34.37	33.61	32.8	32.79	33.53	33.82(-0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-3	160	22	-77	9.23	60%		-53.8	2.59%	0	-0.5	52	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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