Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Apr. 22, 2014

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $34.5466 (1.37%) ($34.1548 - $35.1007) on Tue. Apr. 22, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.51% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $34.5466(1.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL declines -2.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(63%)    XLI(54%)    XAR(53%)    XLF(53%)    IWM(52%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -1.255% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-16%)    IGOV(-10%)    SHY(-7%)    UUP(-6%)    GLD(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.255% (StdDev 2.51%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $33.72(2.45%)
10 Day Moving Average   $33.6(2.82%)
20 Day Moving Average   $34.32(0.66%)
To recent high   -4.7%
To recent low   8.4%
Market Cap   $17.569b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 3.58% (three month std-dev: 2.51%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.03%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.1%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.75%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_22_2014	34.58	34.32	33.6	33.72	33.83	34.13	34.55(1.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	11	70	28	-42	8.94	60%	0	-28.8	2.51%	0	0.2	40	NAN
2	Apr_21_2014	34.58	34.35	33.54	33.18	33.18	33.79	34.08(0.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-4	130	19	-71	7.19	60%	-0.06	-43.5	2.54%	0	-0.2	46	NAN
3	Apr_17_2014	34.6	34.37	33.61	32.8	32.79	33.53	33.82(-0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-3	160	22	-77	9.23	60%	-0.12	-53.8	2.59%	0	-0.5	52	NAN
4	Apr_16_2014	34.64	34.42	33.77	32.78	32.51	32.56	33.93(5.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-19	-10	0	-77	15.64	60%	-0.09	0	2.65%	0	-0.4	50	NAN
5	Apr_15_2014	34.67	34.5	33.96	33.05	32.79	32.05	32.22(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-40	-180	-27	-80	15.98	53%	-0.32	0	2.44%	0	-1.8	38	NAN

6	Apr_14_2014	34.78	34.68	34.36	33.48	33.49	32.45	31.88(-0.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-45	-220	-38	-67	13.47	53%	-0.4	0	2.48%	0	-2.4	32	NAN
7	Apr_11_2014	34.92	34.89	34.7	33.94	33.9	33.53	32.18(-4.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-41	-80	-38	-51	15.54	53%	-0.37	0	2.54%	0	-2.8	40	NAN
8	Apr_10_2014	35.05	35.04	34.9	34.49	34.42	34.53	33.72(-4.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-11	20	-7	-24	16.31	62%	-0.2	0	2.41%	0	-1.8	49	NAN
9	Apr_9_2014	35.12	35.04	34.97	34.88	34.66	34.27	35.25(2.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-8	-100	-9	-4	11.48	74%	0	0	2.25%	0	49.6	52	NAN
10	Apr_8_2014	35.12	35.04	34.95	35.04	34.98	34.31	34.37(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-29	-140	-34	-14	17.41	71%	-0.11	0	2.23%	0	47.1	46	NAN

11	Apr_7_2014	35.16	35.04	35.12	35.41	35.6	35.05	34.18(-2.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-17	-90	-20	-8	10.58	71%	-0.17	0	2.29%	0	47.5	43	NAN
12	Apr_4_2014	35.22	35.04	35.23	35.57	35.87	35.64	34.93(-2.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-4	-20	-4	-2	8.73	71%	-0.06	0	2.31%	0	49.9	44	NAN
13	Apr_3_2014	35.24	35.04	35.2	35.35	35.69	36.16	35.67(-0.98%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	12	120	14	6	7.94	71%	0.09	0	2.31%	0	49.5	56	NAN
14	Apr_2_2014	35.21	35.04	35.12	35.05	35.25	36.1	36.03(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	25	190	29	12	12.51	71%	0.17	0	2.37%	0	48.7	50	NAN
15	Apr_1_2014	35.15	35.04	35.05	34.85	34.76	35.23	36.25(3.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	15	90	17	7	11.07	71%	0.29	0	2.45%	0	49.7	50	NAN

16	Mar_31_2014	35.05	35.04	34.97	34.84	34.75	34.4	34.97(3.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-3	-80	-3	-1	8.42	64%	-0.03	0	2.35%	0	51.4	50	NAN
17	Mar_28_2014	35.06	35.04	35.07	34.88	35.04	34.3	33.81(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-21	-130	-24	-10	6.79	54%	-0.37	0	2.2%	0	47.6	50	NAN
18	Mar_27_2014	35.19	35.04	35.18	35.02	35.21	35.1	34.17(-2.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-17	-10	-20	-8	9.55	54%	-0.31	0	2.3%	0	55.1	50	NAN
19	Mar_26_2014	35.3	35.04	35.18	35.17	35.3	35.78	35.06(-3.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	9	110	11	4	7.32	68%	-0.08	0	2.27%	0	63.7	50	NAN
20	Mar_25_2014	35.33	35.04	35.18	35.24	35.11	35.32	36.21(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	14	30	16	6	10.42	100%	0.37	0	2.03%	0	63.5	50	NAN

21	Mar_24_2014	35.2	35.04	35.18	35.14	35.04	34.82	35.16(1.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-9	-50	-11	-4	6.51	100%	-0.03	0	1.92%	0	70.3	50	NAN
22	Mar_21_2014	35.21	35.04	35.18	35.31	35.29	34.89	34.5(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-11	-80	-13	-5	14.11	100%	-0.4	0	1.94%	0	63.9	50	NAN
23	Mar_20_2014	35.35	35.04	35.18	35.35	35.47	35.25	34.93(-1.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.9	194	-30	228	91	6.95	100%	-0.31	0	2.07%	0	72.8	50	NAN
24	Mar_19_2014	35.46	35.04	35.18	28.37	35.39	35.69	35.43(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	14.7	264	800	310	124	3.86	100%	-0.03	0	2.15%	0	73.8	50	NAN
25	Mar_18_2014	35.47	35.04	35.18	21.28	35.39	35.69	35.68(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	26.2	366	NAN	431	172	5.72	100%		0	2.34%	0	64.9	50	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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