Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 28, 2009

Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 31, 2024)

(iShares Russell 2000)
IWM latest price $63.2600 (-0.16%) ($62.9700 - $63.6100) on Mon. Dec. 28, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.44% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $63.2600(-0.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IWM advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IWM advances 2.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IWM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(89%)    PEJ(85%)    XLY(81%)    QQQ(79%)    EWG(76%)
Factors Impacting IWM price   IWM will decline at least -0.72% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-11%)    TIP(-6%)    IGOV(4%)    GLD(5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.72% (StdDev 1.44%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $62.86(0.64%)
10 Day Moving Average   $62(2.03%)
20 Day Moving Average   $60.87(3.93%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   12.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.6
One Month Target Price   > $64.46
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $59.82

$. The price is -0.2% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 1.9% away from the target price of 64.46.
$. IWM price fluctuates within 2.38% (three month std-dev: 1.44%) daily (68% of days).

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