Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ GBTC: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Feb. 24, 2021

Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Jan. 26, 2016 - Wed. Feb. 24, 2021)

(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)
GBTC latest price $48.8500 (6.54%) ($46.4300 - $49.4500) on Wed. Feb. 24, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Uptrend Consolidation
Trend Narrative   Uptrend Consolidation
Average Daily Price Swing   $7.77 (18.17% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   7.92% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   1% (StdDev 7.92%)
Daily Moving Force   -3%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   2.84%
Trend Strength   16.9%
RSI   73
Momentum   2.3
Latest Price   $48.8500(6.54%)
Forecasted Low Price   46.9(-4%)
Forecasted High Price   50.07(2.5%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(-1.5%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   14% (42.85)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.7%
Hourly Trend -7.8% [$47.9(-3.74), $51.13(1.64)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   7
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   GBTC declines -0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GBTC advances 16.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GBTC decline at-1.5% a week (68% probability)
FEX(63%)    IBUY(49%)    TBT(49%)    IPO(48%)    EWG(47%)
Factors Impacting GBTC price   GBTC will advance at least 2% in a week (47% probabilities).
BND(-51%)    TLT(-50%)    CEMB(-46%)    VCIT(-44%)    LQD(-43%)
Explanation The decline is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0.6

Relative Volatility 1.3 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   1.5% (StdDev 7.92%)
Hourly BBV -0.5 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

Next Hour Price   $48.49(-0.74%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Support Level   $42.77
5 Day Moving Average   $51.75(-5.6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $49.99(-2.28%)
20 Day Moving Average   $42.77(14.22%)
To recent high   -14.4%
To recent low   159.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Acts as Open-End Investment Fund/Unit Trust

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. GBTC price fluctuates within 18.17% (three month std-dev: 7.92% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. GBTC price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart Hourly Chart 15 Minute Chart

> 20210225

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Feb_24_2021	42.77 (1.8%)	49.99 (3.4%)	51.75 (-0.4%)	51.13	47.9(0%)	48.85(6.54%)	46.43-49.45	1.2(0.8)	-0.5	-3%	1%	0%	2.84%	16.9%	73	2.3	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(-2%)	7	0.6	1.1	Uptrend Consolidation	47.89(-1.97%)	46.19-52.99	10.77	-14.4%-159.4%
2	Feb_23_2021	42.09 (1.8%)	49.6 (4.2%)	51.98 (-1.2%)	49.49	51.64(0%)	45.85(-19.7%)	42.4-53.63	1.3(0.5)	-1.2	-3.3%	1.2%	0%	3.44%	17.8%	74	2.5	Correction	Higher(7.8%)	8	0.4	1.5	Uptrend	50.71(10.6%)	45.17-53.08	28.88	-19.7%-143.4%
3	Feb_19_2021	41.7 (1.8%)	48.98 (5%)	52.6 (3.6%)	50.16	54.35(0%)	57.1(7.94%)	54.21-57.4	1.6(1.8)	3.3	8.3%	3.9%	0%	4.02%	17.5%	87	2.8	Growing Uptrend	Higher(12.2%)	8	1.9	1.9	Uptrend	65.13(14.06%)	53.56-70.08	10.89	0%-203.2%
4	Feb_18_2021	40.73 (1.6%)	46.72 (4.8%)	50.78 (3.1%)	48.3	47.34(0%)	52.9(-2.16%)	50.32-55.08	1.6(1.5)	2.5	2.9%	3.1%	0%	3.8%	14.7%	80	2.7	Growing Uptrend	Higher(7.1%)	7	1.6	1.9	Uptrend	59.48(12.43%)	50.27-63.42	14.63	-2.2%-180.9%
5	Feb_17_2021	40.17 (1.2%)	44.93 (4.6%)	49.27 (2.5%)	46.86	45.96(0%)	54.07(8.16%)	29.2-54.34	1.6(1.8)	3.5	-3.7%	3.8%	0%	3.6%	11.9%	77	2.6	Confirmed Correction	Range(0.1%)	7	2	2.1	Uptrend	59.95(10.88%)	51-63.79	14.21	0%-187.1%

6	Feb_16_2021	39.4 (1%)	42.88 (4.6%)	48.07 (2.4%)	47.78	49.27(0%)	49.99(2.19%)	48.57-52.15	1.6(1.6)	2.2	2.4%	3.5%	0%	3.54%	8.8%	78	2.3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(5.9%)	8	1.7	2	Growing Uptrend	55.99(12.01%)	47.65-58.08	12.21	0%-165.4%
7	Feb_12_2021	38.78 (0.8%)	41 (4.2%)	46.93 (4.9%)	47.14	47.75(0%)	48.92(1.92%)	46.97-49	1.7(1.7)	1.7	3.1%	3.5%	0%	3.24%	5.7%	68	2.2	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.6%)	8	1.7	2.1	Growing Uptrend	54.05(10.48%)	46.8-55.86	9.76	0%-172.4%
8	Feb_11_2021	38.15 (0.6%)	39.25 (3.2%)	44.76 (6.7%)	46.03	46.3(0%)	48(5.77%)	43.3-49.2	1.5(1.7)	1.6	2.4%	3%	0%	2.48%	2.9%	61	2.1	Growing Uptrend	Higher(5.4%)	8	1.8	2.2	Growing Uptrend	51.6(7.51%)	46.04-52.99	11.82	-0.1%-173.9%
9	Feb_10_2021	37.88 (0.4%)	37.7 (2%)	41.96 (5.4%)	43.85	46.53(0%)	45.38(-5.58%)	43.16-46.78	1.1(1.5)	0.6	3.8%	2.2%	0%	1.58%	-0.5%	57	1.9	Uptrend Dip	Higher(8.8%)	8	1.5	2.2	Uptrend	47.07(3.72%)	43.84-48.45	9.76	-5.6%-174.9%
10	Feb_9_2021	37.78 (0.4%)	36.54 (0.8%)	39.82 (7.8%)	40.95	45.77(0%)	48.06(8.54%)	46.9-48.73	0.7(2.2)	1	8.6%	3.5%	0%	0.76%	-3.3%	53	1.7	Breakout	Higher(12.1%)	7	2.2	2	Uptrend	48.69(1.32%)	45.95-49.87	10.26	0%-191.1%

11	Feb_8_2021	37.49 (0.4%)	34.83 (-0.4%)	36.95 (7.8%)	37.97	41.18(0%)	44.28(16.25%)	42.85-44.6	0.1(1.8)	1.2	9.8%	2.3%	0%	-0.2%	-7.1%	54	1.4	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(12.1%)	6	1.5	1.8	N/A	42.77(-3.42%)	40.5-44.62	16.15	-1.5%-168.2%
12	Feb_5_2021	37.19 (0.2%)	33.81 (-1.4%)	34.28 (4%)	35.17	36.13(0%)	38.09(12.06%)	37.96-39	-0.5(0.2)	1.1	4.5%	0.3%	0%	-0.96%	-9.1%	49	1.5	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(4.8%)	5	0	1.7	Downtrend	37.5(-1.55%)	37.29-37.99	4.46	-15.3%-130.7%
13	Feb_1_2021	37.05 (0.2%)	33.72 (-1.8%)	32.96 (0.6%)	33.09	34.75(0%)	33.99(-2.05%)	32.8-34.24	-0.9(-0.7)	1.5	1.3%	-0.9%	0%	-1.22%	-9%	46	1.8	Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop	Range(1.4%)	4	-0.7	1.1	Downtrend	33.3(-2.03%)	32.79-34.49	6.45	-24.4%-120.4%
14	Jan_29_2021	37 (0.2%)	34.19 (-2%)	32.77 (0.2%)	32.59	34.22(0%)	34.7(3.03%)	30-39.15	-0.9(-0.5)	1.4	4.4%	-1.6%	0%	-1.4%	-7.6%	38	1.8	Rebound	Range(2.8%)	4	-0.3	0.2	Downtrend	33.78(-2.66%)	33.25-35.01	19.31	-22.8%-127.4%
15	Jan_28_2021	36.95 (0.2%)	34.98 (-2.2%)	32.72 (1.1%)	32.26	31.42(0%)	33.68(8.82%)	31.58-33.72	-0.9(-0.7)	1.9	0.7%	-1.2%	0%	-1.44%	-5.3%	35	1.8	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-0.5%)	4	-0.6	0.6	Downtrend	32.82(-2.55%)	32.23-34.2	9.11	-25.1%-125.9%

16	Jan_27_2021	36.82 (0.2%)	35.61 (-2.4%)	32.38 (-2.7%)	32.52	30.95(0%)	30.95(-1.71%)	28.44-31	-1(-1.3)	-0.3	-4.4%	-1.7%	0%	-1.62%	-3.3%	32	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-5.2%)	4	-1.1	0.9	Correction	26.29(-15.05%)	25.56-29.22	16.91	-31.2%-107.6%
17	Jan_26_2021	36.86 (0.4%)	36.44 (-2.2%)	33.26 (-3.8%)	33	33.09(0%)	31.49(-4.72%)	31.05-32.66	-0.8(-1.2)	-2.1	-3.2%	-1.1%	0%	-1.44%	-1.2%	42	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(-1.9%)	4	-1.2	1.5	Correction	27.04(-14.13%)	26.33-29.9	9.21	-30%-119%
18	Jan_25_2021	36.74 (0.6%)	37.09 (-1.8%)	34.57 (-3.5%)	34	34.09(0%)	33.05(-4.06%)	32.85-36.04	-0.5(-0.8)	-0.4	-0.1%	-2%	0%	-1.1%	0.9%	52	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	3	-1	2.2	Correction	28.68(-13.23%)	27.95-31.56	12.35	-26.5%-129.8%
19	Jan_22_2021	36.59 (0.8%)	38.2 (-1%)	35.83 (-4.8%)	35.25	32.92(0%)	34.45(7.88%)	32.8-34.99	-0.2(-0.5)	0	-3.9%	-1.8%	0%	-0.42%	4.4%	58	2	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-5.7%)	3	-0.5	2.1	Correction	31.45(-8.7%)	30.87-33.78	17.12	-23.4%-139.6%
20	Jan_21_2021	36.59 (1.4%)	39.24 (0%)	37.64 (-4.3%)	36.87	33.91(0%)	31.94(-9.66%)	30.75-33.01	0.1(-0.9)	0	-8.7%	-2.2%	0%	0.46%	7.7%	54	2.2	Downtrend Reversal	Lower(-6.1%)	4	-0.5	2.4	Downtrend Reversal	30.93(-3.16%)	30.56-32.4	28.64	-29%-123.4%

21	Jan_20_2021	36.43 (2%)	40.48 (1.2%)	39.33 (-1.8%)	39.82	37.59(0%)	35.35(-7.11%)	33.3-37.18	0.5(-0.2)	0	-4.1%	-0.6%	0%	1.44%	11.1%	63	2.3	Downtrend Reversal	Range(-1.1%)	5	0.1	2.3	Uptrend Consolidation	35.94(1.68%)	35.61-36.94	19.22	-21.4%-165.7%
22	Jan_19_2021	36.18 (2.4%)	40.96 (2%)	40.04 (0.3%)	40.79	39.84(0%)	38.06(-3.27%)	37.85-40.98	0.8(0.3)	0	-2.5%	0.7%	0%	2.08%	13.2%	66	2.4	Uptrend Consolidation Correction	Range(-0.2%)	6	0.6	2.3	Uptrend	40.67(6.86%)	37.76-41.92	14.87	-15.4%-196.6%
23	Jan_15_2021	35.71 (2.6%)	40.76 (2.4%)	39.91 (-2.5%)	40.47	42.04(0%)	39.34(-9.63%)	38.14-41.74	0.9(0.6)	0	0.3%	1.6%	0%	2.46%	14.1%	72	2.6	Uptrend Dip	Higher(6.7%)	7	0.9	2.5	Uptrend Consolidation	39.18(-0.41%)	38.06-42.54	18.06	-12.5%-216.5%
24	Jan_14_2021	35.07 (3.2%)	40.13 (3%)	40.92 (-0.7%)	39.79	41.75(0%)	43.53(7.88%)	43.45-44.5	1.2(1.4)	1.1	2.8%	2.7%	0%	3.06%	14.4%	74	2.8	Growing Uptrend	Higher(5.5%)	7	1.5	2.5	Uptrend	48.11(10.51%)	41.49-50.94	13.05	-3.2%-256.8%
25	Jan_13_2021	34.06 (3.4%)	39.1 (3.4%)	41.21 (-1.7%)	40.4	38.9(0%)	40.35(3.67%)	37.28-40.95	1.2(1.1)	0	-0.1%	2.5%	0%	3.46%	14.8%	67	2.9	Correction	Range(2.4%)	7	1.1	1.9	Uptrend	45.43(12.6%)	39.11-48.14	12.38	-10.3%-230.7%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low