Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 31, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $66.1200 (-5.64%) ($66.0200 - $69.3000) on Mon. Aug. 31, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.84% (three month average)
RSI   29
Latest Price   $66.1200(-5.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -4.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(72%)    FXI(66%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.92% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    SKYY(-5%)    SHY(-4%)    UUP(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.92% (StdDev 1.84%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -4.4%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $58.44(-11.62%)
Resistance Level   $73.15
5 Day Moving Average   $68.85(-3.97%)
10 Day Moving Average   $69.46(-4.81%)
20 Day Moving Average   $73.15(-9.61%)
To recent high   -27.2%
To recent low   0.5%
Market Cap   $177.382b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 6.23% (three month std-dev: 1.84%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 2.72%(47%) Average negative next day return: -2.09%(53%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 6.03%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -4.24%(33%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 8.33%(53%) Average negative next weekly return: -8.69%(47%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151001

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_31_2015	82.45	73.15	69.46	68.85	69.13	68.74	66.12(-5.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-74	-30	-47	-156	18.48	29%	-0.23	-56.7	1.84%	0	-1.5	29	INF
2	Aug_28_2015	82.64	73.76	70.36	68.79	69.41	70.32	70.07(-1.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	10	120	62	-146	10.6	30%	-0.19	-63.8	1.73%	0	-0.9	29	INF
3	Aug_27_2015	82.8	74.17	70.79	68.41	67.55	69.51	70.84(3.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-17	170	38	-183	18.12	30%	-0.18	-70.2	1.73%	0	-0.8	34	INF
4	Aug_26_2015	82.95	74.62	71.17	68.31	67.11	68.51	68.66(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-7	90	58	-202	26.39	26%	-0.17	-74.1	1.68%	0	-1.3	29	INF
5	Aug_25_2015	83.09	75.21	71.66	69.2	67.88	65.58	68.57(4.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-94	-290	-42	-250	29.95	26%	-0.16	-75	1.67%	0	-1.5	27	INF

6	Aug_24_2015	83.22	75.82	72.52	70.26	68.97	65.72	65.8(-3.49%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-253	-380	-230	-320	31.38	20%	-0.22	-74.1	1.58%	0	-2.4	22	INF
7	Aug_21_2015	83.4	76.63	73.99	72.14	71.93	70.18	68.18(-3.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-143	-180	-117	-221	29.13	27%	-0.17	-72.7	1.54%	0	-2.3	29	INF
8	Aug_20_2015	83.54	77.39	75.09	73.45	73.37	72.22	70.32(-3.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-101	-110	-79	-166	21	32%	-0.14	-70.7	1.58%	0	-2.1	31	INF
9	Aug_19_2015	83.66	78.08	75.97	74.41	74.26	73.68	73.12(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-60	-60	-36	-130	18.18	34%	-0.13	-64.6	1.57%	0	-1.5	32	INF
10	Aug_18_2015	83.77	78.63	76.64	74.46	74.69	74.53	73.88(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-41	-10	-14	-122	11.16	34%	-0.12	-63.2	1.58%	0	-1.5	33	INF

11	Aug_17_2015	83.87	79.07	77.15	75.16	74.3	74.53	75.19(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-55	20	-33	-120	12.68	36%	-0.12	-58.6	1.58%	0	-1.3	34	INF
12	Aug_14_2015	83.97	79.45	77.45	76.21	75.14	74.84	74.76(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-28	-70	-5	-98	12.37	36%	-0.11	-49.6	1.57%	0	-1.6	31	INF
13	Aug_13_2015	84.06	79.89	77.84	77.02	76.49	73.76	75.11(2.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-98	-270	-87	-130	23.23	36%	-0.11	-40.6	1.58%	0	-1.8	28	INF
14	Aug_12_2015	84.15	80.23	78.33	77.79	77.61	75.44	73.38(-5.12%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.8	-174	-200	-176	-166	41.19	32%	-0.12	-32.6	1.55%	0	-2.8	20	INF
15	Aug_11_2015	84.25	80.64	79.06	79.08	79.33	79.22	77.34(-3.89%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-50	-0	-33	-99	22.98	37%	-0.09	-17.4	1.43%	0	-1.7	24	INF

16	Aug_10_2015	84.33	80.86	79.39	79.39	79.73	79.77	80.47(2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	3	20	31	-80	11.28	40%	-0.05	-9.5	1.35%	0	-0.2	41	INF
17	Aug_7_2015	84.37	80.93	79.45	78.89	79.31	79.44	78.82(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-30	30	0	-118	8.74	48%	-0.08	-13.1	1.33%	0	-1.2	32	INF
18	Aug_6_2015	84.44	81.02	79.85	78.8	78.96	79.69	78.96(-1.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-13	70	15	-95	9.3	48%	-0.07	-19.1	1.63%	0	-1.2	30	INF
19	Aug_5_2015	84.5	81.05	80.31	79	78.84	79.18	79.82(1.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	1	20	27	-78	7.5	48%	-0.06	-24.1	1.63%	0	-0.7	44	INF
20	Aug_4_2015	84.55	80.98	80.71	79.08	78.9	78.24	78.87(1.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-38	-70	-23	-84	8.5	48%	-0.06	-33	1.63%	0	-1.1	45	INF

21	Aug_3_2015	84.6	81.03	81.09	79.42	79.43	78.51	77.99(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-62	-80	-54	-85	9.28	48%	-0.05	-32.7	1.62%	0	-1.7	38	INF
22	Jul_31_2015	84.64	81.17	81.58	80.1	80.02	79.56	78.34(-2.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-51	-40	-47	-63	12.69	48%	-0.05	-31.6	1.64%	0	-1.6	38	INF
23	Jul_30_2015	84.68	81.37	82.11	81.04	80.48	80.35	79.96(-0.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-32	-30	-35	-24	6.93	51%	-0.02	-26.9	1.62%	0	-0.9	51	INF
24	Jul_29_2015	84.7	81.49	82.3	81.82	81.48	80.49	80.26(-0.37%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-22	-100	-32	7	7.18	47%	-0.04	-21.5	1.63%	0	-0.8	58	INF
25	Jul_28_2015	84.73	81.6	82.39	82.6	82.37	80.61	80.56(-1.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-51	-160	-75	21	12.12	47%		-16.1	1.67%	0	-0.7	63	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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