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     Wed. Nov. 25, 2020

Trading Signals: XLF Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Feb. 7, 2014 - Tue. Jan. 26, 2021)

(Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF)

XLF latest price $28.5600 (-0.35%) ($28.2200 - $28.5800) on Wed. Nov. 25, 2020.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative  Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing  $1.59 (6% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  1.75% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  0.7% (StdDev 1.75%)
Daily Moving Force  1.3%
Correction Force  Weak (0%)
Trend   0.62%
Trend Strength  4.1%
RSI   78
Momentum  3.4
Latest Price  $28.5600(-0.35%)
Forecasted Low Price  28.45(-0.4%)
Forecasted High Price  29.3(2.6%)
Direction of Next Movement  Higher(2.7%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction  5.3% (27.11)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  4.4%
Hourly Trend   1.5% [$28.43(0.43), $27.93(0.3)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  5
Intraday Reversal Probability  There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to downside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend  XLF advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  XLF advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support XLF advance at 0.3% a week (93% probability)
  IVE(92%)    IWD(92%)    SDY(91%)    VYM(91%)    IWN(90%)  
Factors Impacting XLF price  XLF will advance at least 0.2% in a week (47% probabilities).
  TLT(-54%)    VIXM(-50%)    SHY(-47%)    BND(-44%)    VXX(-40%)  
Explanation   The rally is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   1.7
 
Relative Volatility   1.6 (options are expensive)
 
Market Trend Strength  1.2% (StdDev 1.75%)
Hourly BBV   3 ()
Intraday Trend   0.2%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $28.6(0.14%)
Support Level  $26.51
5 Day Moving Average  $27.9(2.37%)
10 Day Moving Average  $27.6(3.48%)
20 Day Moving Average  $26.51(7.73%)
To recent high  -0.3%
To recent low  23.1%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
One Year Target Price   $28.97 (1.43%)
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLF price fluctuates within 6% (three month std-dev: 1.75%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLF price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20201225

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
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CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
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CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
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NextDayPriceRangeVolume
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To High-Low
1Nov_25_202026.51 (0.6%)27.6 (0.6%)27.9 (0.9%) 27.93 28.43(0%)28.56(-0.35%)28.22-28.581.2(1.3)3 1.3%0.7%0%0.62%4.1%783.4 Growing Uptrend  Higher(2.2%)51.71.4Uptrend 29.34(2.74%)28.17-29.8445.04   -0.3%-23.1% 
2Nov_24_202026.26 (0.6%)27.44 (0.6%)27.66 (0.8%) 27.63 28(0%)28.66(3.5%)28.1-28.691.4(1.5)2.5 1.4%0.7%0%0.66%4.5%813.4 Growing Uptrend  Higher(2.1%)51.91.5Uptrend 29.47(2.84%)28.19-30.0259.49   0%-23.5% 
3Nov_23_202026.04 (0.6%)27.28 (0.8%)27.44 (0%) 27.42 27.42(0%)27.69(1.88%)27.39-27.771(1.1)2.7 0.3%0.4%0%0.7%4.8%753.3 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.7%)51.51.3Uptrend 28.48(2.84%)27.38-28.9556.15   0%-19.4% 
4Nov_20_202025.88 (0.6%)27.21 (1%)27.43 (0.1%) 27.38 27.26(0%)27.18(-0.88%)27.12-27.390.8(0.9)-1.3 -0.4%0.6%0%0.84%5.1%763.2 Uptrend Consolidation  Range(0.6%)61.31.4Uptrend 28.11(3.43%)26.95-28.6138.12   -1.6%-17.2% 
5Nov_19_202025.78 (0.6%)27.01 (1%)27.4 (0.6%) 27.47 27.42(0%)27.42(0.33%)27.02-27.451(1.2)-1.1 0.1%0.7%0%0.92%4.8%803.2 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.8%)71.51.7Uptrend 28.43(3.67%)27.12-28.9846.9   -0.8%-18.2% 
 
6Nov_18_202025.66 (0.6%)26.79 (1.2%)27.23 (0.2%) 27.39 27.5(0%)27.33(-0.94%)27.32-27.941.1(1.2)-1.3 0.3%0.8%0%0.96%4.4%803.1 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.6%)81.61.9Uptrend 28.34(3.7%)27.01-28.9178.84   -1.1%-17.8% 
7Nov_17_202025.52 (0.6%)26.53 (1.2%)27.18 (0.3%) 27.14 27.51(0%)27.59(-0.14%)27.13-27.641.4(1.6)3.3 0.6%0.9%0%1.02%3.9%833 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.6%)81.61.8Uptrend 28.61(3.68%)27.2-29.2163.66   -0.1%-18.9% 
8Nov_16_202025.38 (0.4%)26.26 (1.2%)27.09 (0.5%) 27.07 27.28(0%)27.63(2.22%)27.36-27.731.6(1.8)2.4 1.2%1.1%0%1.04%3.5%742.8 Growing Uptrend  Higher(2.3%)81.71.9Uptrend 28.57(3.4%)27.2-29.1666.76   0%-19.1% 
9Nov_13_202025.22 (0.4%)25.93 (1.2%)26.96 (1.5%) 26.93 26.77(0%)27.03(1.65%)26.77-27.141.4(1.6)1.7 0.1%1%0%1%2.8%672.6 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.1%)81.51.1Growing Uptrend 28.1(3.97%)26.74-28.4444.99   -0.4%-16.5% 
10Nov_12_202025.1 (0.4%)25.62 (1%)26.55 (1.1%) 26.95 26.87(0%)26.59(-1.66%)26.35-26.771.2(1.5)2.8 0.2%0.9%0%0.78%2%582.4 Uptrend Dip  Higher(1.9%)81.50.7Uptrend Dip 28.13(5.81%)26.1-28.6462.61   -2.1%-14.6% 
 
11Nov_11_202025.01 (0.2%)25.34 (0.8%)26.26 (1.9%) 26.58 27.1(0%)27.04(-0.41%)26.88-27.321.8(2.1)6.5 1.1%1.1%0%0.6%1.3%622.3 Growing Uptrend  Higher(2.4%)821.3Relative Overbought 27.27(0.85%)26.03-28.2961.47   -0.4%-16.6% 
12Nov_10_202024.89 (0.2%)24.99 (0.4%)25.77 (1.8%) 26.05 27.04(0%)27.15(0.52%)26.79-27.252.4(2.7)1.4 2.9%1%-2.5%0.38%0.4%662 Overbought  Lower(-3.8%)72.90.7Growing Uptrend 27.44(1.05%)26.74-27.6185.99   0%-17% 
13Nov_9_202024.77 (0%)24.68 (0.2%)25.31 (2.2%) 25.42 26.06(0%)27.01(8.21%)26.66-27.442.9(3.2)1.9 3%0.9%-2.55%0.18%-0.4%641.7 Overbought  Lower(-3.9%)63.4-0.4Uptrend 27.07(0.22%)26.6-27.27162.48   0%-16.4% 
14Nov_6_202024.68 (-0%)24.42 (-0%)24.77 (0.9%) 24.88 25.06(0%)24.96(-0.79%)24.88-25.310.6(0.6)1.8 1%-0.1%0%-0.02%-1%531.5 N/A  Higher(1.3%)6-1.51.9Range Bound 24.93(-0.13%)24.86-24.9953.32   -2.2%-7.6% 
15Nov_5_202024.69 (-0%)24.43 (-0.2%)24.55 (1.2%) 24.66 24.77(0%)25.16(2.44%)24.77-25.340.9(0.9)3 0.8%0%0%-0.08%-1%501.5 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(0.8%)6-0.90.9Downtrend Consolidation 25.11(-0.2%)25.01-25.1465.68   -1.4%-8.4% 
 
16Nov_4_202024.68 (-0%)24.42 (-0.2%)24.27 (0.8%) 24.34 24.7(0%)24.56(-1.17%)24.19-25-0.2(-0.2)2.7 0.7%-0%0%-0.16%-1.1%451.5 Uptrend Reversal Downtrend Pop Higher(1.3%)5-1.40.5Downtrend Consolidation 24.54(-0.1%)24.61-24.5187.24   -3.7%-5.9% 
17Nov_3_202024.7 (-0%)24.43 (-0.4%)24.08 (0.5%) 24.11 24.55(0%)24.85(2.22%)24.73-25.10.3(0.3)1.7 1.6%0.1%0%-0.24%-1.1%501.5 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1.7%)42.1-1.6Downtrend 24.74(-0.46%)24.7-24.8275.82   -2.6%-7.1% 
18Nov_2_202024.68 (-0%)24.41 (-0.4%)23.96 (-0.3%) 23.82 23.98(0%)24.31(1.89%)23.96-24.42-0.7(-0.7)-0.2 0.5%-0.1%0%-0.3%-1.1%411.5 Rebound  Range(0.4%)31.9-2.5After Bottom 24.26(-0.2%)23.98-24.4964.99   -4.7%-4.8% 
19Oct_30_202024.7 (-0%)24.44 (-0.4%)24.03 (-1.2%) 23.87 23.68(0%)23.86(0.29%)23.47-23.9-1.5(-1.7)-1.9 -0.5%-0.4%0%-0.3%-1%301.6 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-0.9%)31.2-2.2Downtrend 23.73(-0.54%)23.62-23.9965.96   -6.5%-2.8% 
20Oct_29_202024.73 (0%)24.56 (-0.4%)24.31 (-1.1%) 24.12 23.66(0%)23.79(0.76%)23.25-23.96-1.8(-2)-1.3 -1.6%-0.4%0%-0.22%-0.7%341.5 Downtrend Pop  Lower(-2%)3-0.3-2.4Correction 23.31(-2%)23.24-23.6359.26   -6.7%-2.5% 
 
21Oct_28_202024.76 (0.2%)24.68 (-0.2%)24.59 (-0.9%) 24.53 24.06(0%)23.61(-2.56%)23.47-23.93-2.3(-2.5)-1.5 -1.7%-0.4%1.2%-0.12%-0.3%321.4 Oversold  Range(0.4%)30-2.4Correction 23.28(-1.41%)23.22-23.5288.61   -7.4%-1.8% 
22Oct_27_202024.79 (0.2%)24.81 (-0.2%)24.8 (-0.5%) 24.84 24.59(0%)24.23(-1.82%)24.21-24.67-1.2(-1.3)-2.2 -1%-0.2%0%-0.02%0.1%441.4 Growing Downtrend  Range(-0.3%)3-1-0.6Correction 24.02(-0.87%)23.97-24.2145.39   -5%-4.4% 
23Oct_26_202024.77 (0.2%)24.9 (-0%)24.92 (0.1%) 24.92 25(0%)24.68(-2.26%)24.45-24.93-0.1(-0.2)0.4 -0.2%-0.2%0%0.04%0.5%551.4 Downtrend Reversal  Higher(0.7%)40.7-0.2Correction 24.58(-0.4%)24.55-24.7253.97   -3.3%-6.4% 
24Oct_23_202024.75 (0.2%)24.98 (0%)24.9 (0.2%) 24.95 25.09(0%)25.25(0.32%)25.05-25.410.9(1)0.2 0.7%0.1%0%0.08%0.9%581.7 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.8%)41.40.8N/A 25.21(-0.15%)24.97-25.4145.84   -1%-8.8% 
25Oct_22_202024.66 (0.2%)24.97 (0%)24.85 (0.2%) 24.84 24.84(0%)25.17(1.99%)24.66-25.20.8(0.9)0.7 0.1%0.1%0%0.1%1.2%621.9 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)41.50.6N/A 25.15(-0.09%)24.9-25.3538.79   -1.3%-8.5% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
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Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
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