Trading Signals: XLF Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ XLF: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Nov. 25, 2020

Trading Signals: XLF Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Feb. 7, 2014 - Tue. Jan. 26, 2021)

(Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF)
XLF latest price $28.5600 (-0.35%) ($28.2200 - $28.5800) on Wed. Nov. 25, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.59 (6% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.75% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.7% (StdDev 1.75%)
Daily Moving Force   1.3%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.62%
Trend Strength   4.1%
RSI   78
Momentum   3.4
Latest Price   $28.5600(-0.35%)
Forecasted Low Price   28.45(-0.4%)
Forecasted High Price   29.3(2.6%)
Direction of Next Movement   Higher(2.7%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   5.3% (27.11)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   4.4%
Hourly Trend 1.5% [$28.43(0.43), $27.93(0.3)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   5
Intraday Reversal Probability   There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to downside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend   XLF advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLF advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLF advance at 0.3% a week (93% probability)
IVE(92%)    IWD(92%)    SDY(91%)    VYM(91%)    IWN(90%)
Factors Impacting XLF price   XLF will advance at least 0.2% in a week (47% probabilities).
TLT(-54%)    VIXM(-50%)    SHY(-47%)    BND(-44%)    VXX(-40%)
Explanation The rally is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 1.7

Relative Volatility 1.6 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   1.2% (StdDev 1.75%)
Hourly BBV 3 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

Next Day Open Price   $28.6(0.14%)
Support Level   $26.51
5 Day Moving Average   $27.9(2.37%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.6(3.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $26.51(7.73%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   23.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

One Year Target Price    $28.97 (1.43%)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. XLF price fluctuates within 6% (three month std-dev: 1.75% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. XLF price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201225

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Nov_25_2020	26.51 (0.6%)	27.6 (0.6%)	27.9 (0.9%)	27.93	28.43(0%)	28.56(-0.35%)	28.22-28.58	1.2(1.3)	3	1.3%	0.7%	0%	0.62%	4.1%	78	3.4	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.2%)	5	1.7	1.4	Uptrend	29.34(2.74%)	28.17-29.84	45.04	-0.3%-23.1%
2	Nov_24_2020	26.26 (0.6%)	27.44 (0.6%)	27.66 (0.8%)	27.63	28(0%)	28.66(3.5%)	28.1-28.69	1.4(1.5)	2.5	1.4%	0.7%	0%	0.66%	4.5%	81	3.4	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.1%)	5	1.9	1.5	Uptrend	29.47(2.84%)	28.19-30.02	59.49	0%-23.5%
3	Nov_23_2020	26.04 (0.6%)	27.28 (0.8%)	27.44 (0%)	27.42	27.42(0%)	27.69(1.88%)	27.39-27.77	1(1.1)	2.7	0.3%	0.4%	0%	0.7%	4.8%	75	3.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.7%)	5	1.5	1.3	Uptrend	28.48(2.84%)	27.38-28.95	56.15	0%-19.4%
4	Nov_20_2020	25.88 (0.6%)	27.21 (1%)	27.43 (0.1%)	27.38	27.26(0%)	27.18(-0.88%)	27.12-27.39	0.8(0.9)	-1.3	-0.4%	0.6%	0%	0.84%	5.1%	76	3.2	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.6%)	6	1.3	1.4	Uptrend	28.11(3.43%)	26.95-28.61	38.12	-1.6%-17.2%
5	Nov_19_2020	25.78 (0.6%)	27.01 (1%)	27.4 (0.6%)	27.47	27.42(0%)	27.42(0.33%)	27.02-27.45	1(1.2)	-1.1	0.1%	0.7%	0%	0.92%	4.8%	80	3.2	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.8%)	7	1.5	1.7	Uptrend	28.43(3.67%)	27.12-28.98	46.9	-0.8%-18.2%

6	Nov_18_2020	25.66 (0.6%)	26.79 (1.2%)	27.23 (0.2%)	27.39	27.5(0%)	27.33(-0.94%)	27.32-27.94	1.1(1.2)	-1.3	0.3%	0.8%	0%	0.96%	4.4%	80	3.1	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.6%)	8	1.6	1.9	Uptrend	28.34(3.7%)	27.01-28.91	78.84	-1.1%-17.8%
7	Nov_17_2020	25.52 (0.6%)	26.53 (1.2%)	27.18 (0.3%)	27.14	27.51(0%)	27.59(-0.14%)	27.13-27.64	1.4(1.6)	3.3	0.6%	0.9%	0%	1.02%	3.9%	83	3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.6%)	8	1.6	1.8	Uptrend	28.61(3.68%)	27.2-29.21	63.66	-0.1%-18.9%
8	Nov_16_2020	25.38 (0.4%)	26.26 (1.2%)	27.09 (0.5%)	27.07	27.28(0%)	27.63(2.22%)	27.36-27.73	1.6(1.8)	2.4	1.2%	1.1%	0%	1.04%	3.5%	74	2.8	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.3%)	8	1.7	1.9	Uptrend	28.57(3.4%)	27.2-29.16	66.76	0%-19.1%
9	Nov_13_2020	25.22 (0.4%)	25.93 (1.2%)	26.96 (1.5%)	26.93	26.77(0%)	27.03(1.65%)	26.77-27.14	1.4(1.6)	1.7	0.1%	1%	0%	1%	2.8%	67	2.6	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.1%)	8	1.5	1.1	Growing Uptrend	28.1(3.97%)	26.74-28.44	44.99	-0.4%-16.5%
10	Nov_12_2020	25.1 (0.4%)	25.62 (1%)	26.55 (1.1%)	26.95	26.87(0%)	26.59(-1.66%)	26.35-26.77	1.2(1.5)	2.8	0.2%	0.9%	0%	0.78%	2%	58	2.4	Uptrend Dip	Higher(1.9%)	8	1.5	0.7	Uptrend Dip	28.13(5.81%)	26.1-28.64	62.61	-2.1%-14.6%

11	Nov_11_2020	25.01 (0.2%)	25.34 (0.8%)	26.26 (1.9%)	26.58	27.1(0%)	27.04(-0.41%)	26.88-27.32	1.8(2.1)	6.5	1.1%	1.1%	0%	0.6%	1.3%	62	2.3	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.4%)	8	2	1.3	Relative Overbought	27.27(0.85%)	26.03-28.29	61.47	-0.4%-16.6%
12	Nov_10_2020	24.89 (0.2%)	24.99 (0.4%)	25.77 (1.8%)	26.05	27.04(0%)	27.15(0.52%)	26.79-27.25	2.4(2.7)	1.4	2.9%	1%	-2.5%	0.38%	0.4%	66	2	Overbought	Lower(-3.8%)	7	2.9	0.7	Growing Uptrend	27.44(1.05%)	26.74-27.61	85.99	0%-17%
13	Nov_9_2020	24.77 (0%)	24.68 (0.2%)	25.31 (2.2%)	25.42	26.06(0%)	27.01(8.21%)	26.66-27.44	2.9(3.2)	1.9	3%	0.9%	-2.55%	0.18%	-0.4%	64	1.7	Overbought	Lower(-3.9%)	6	3.4	-0.4	Uptrend	27.07(0.22%)	26.6-27.27	162.48	0%-16.4%
14	Nov_6_2020	24.68 (-0%)	24.42 (-0%)	24.77 (0.9%)	24.88	25.06(0%)	24.96(-0.79%)	24.88-25.31	0.6(0.6)	1.8	1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.02%	-1%	53	1.5	N/A	Higher(1.3%)	6	-1.5	1.9	Range Bound	24.93(-0.13%)	24.86-24.99	53.32	-2.2%-7.6%
15	Nov_5_2020	24.69 (-0%)	24.43 (-0.2%)	24.55 (1.2%)	24.66	24.77(0%)	25.16(2.44%)	24.77-25.34	0.9(0.9)	3	0.8%	0%	0%	-0.08%	-1%	50	1.5	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.8%)	6	-0.9	0.9	Downtrend Consolidation	25.11(-0.2%)	25.01-25.14	65.68	-1.4%-8.4%

16	Nov_4_2020	24.68 (-0%)	24.42 (-0.2%)	24.27 (0.8%)	24.34	24.7(0%)	24.56(-1.17%)	24.19-25	-0.2(-0.2)	2.7	0.7%	-0%	0%	-0.16%	-1.1%	45	1.5	Uptrend Reversal Downtrend Pop	Higher(1.3%)	5	-1.4	0.5	Downtrend Consolidation	24.54(-0.1%)	24.61-24.51	87.24	-3.7%-5.9%
17	Nov_3_2020	24.7 (-0%)	24.43 (-0.4%)	24.08 (0.5%)	24.11	24.55(0%)	24.85(2.22%)	24.73-25.1	0.3(0.3)	1.7	1.6%	0.1%	0%	-0.24%	-1.1%	50	1.5	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1.7%)	4	2.1	-1.6	Downtrend	24.74(-0.46%)	24.7-24.82	75.82	-2.6%-7.1%
18	Nov_2_2020	24.68 (-0%)	24.41 (-0.4%)	23.96 (-0.3%)	23.82	23.98(0%)	24.31(1.89%)	23.96-24.42	-0.7(-0.7)	-0.2	0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.3%	-1.1%	41	1.5	Rebound	Range(0.4%)	3	1.9	-2.5	After Bottom	24.26(-0.2%)	23.98-24.49	64.99	-4.7%-4.8%
19	Oct_30_2020	24.7 (-0%)	24.44 (-0.4%)	24.03 (-1.2%)	23.87	23.68(0%)	23.86(0.29%)	23.47-23.9	-1.5(-1.7)	-1.9	-0.5%	-0.4%	0%	-0.3%	-1%	30	1.6	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.9%)	3	1.2	-2.2	Downtrend	23.73(-0.54%)	23.62-23.99	65.96	-6.5%-2.8%
20	Oct_29_2020	24.73 (0%)	24.56 (-0.4%)	24.31 (-1.1%)	24.12	23.66(0%)	23.79(0.76%)	23.25-23.96	-1.8(-2)	-1.3	-1.6%	-0.4%	0%	-0.22%	-0.7%	34	1.5	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-2%)	3	-0.3	-2.4	Correction	23.31(-2%)	23.24-23.63	59.26	-6.7%-2.5%

21	Oct_28_2020	24.76 (0.2%)	24.68 (-0.2%)	24.59 (-0.9%)	24.53	24.06(0%)	23.61(-2.56%)	23.47-23.93	-2.3(-2.5)	-1.5	-1.7%	-0.4%	1.2%	-0.12%	-0.3%	32	1.4	Oversold	Range(0.4%)	3	0	-2.4	Correction	23.28(-1.41%)	23.22-23.52	88.61	-7.4%-1.8%
22	Oct_27_2020	24.79 (0.2%)	24.81 (-0.2%)	24.8 (-0.5%)	24.84	24.59(0%)	24.23(-1.82%)	24.21-24.67	-1.2(-1.3)	-2.2	-1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.02%	0.1%	44	1.4	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	3	-1	-0.6	Correction	24.02(-0.87%)	23.97-24.21	45.39	-5%-4.4%
23	Oct_26_2020	24.77 (0.2%)	24.9 (-0%)	24.92 (0.1%)	24.92	25(0%)	24.68(-2.26%)	24.45-24.93	-0.1(-0.2)	0.4	-0.2%	-0.2%	0%	0.04%	0.5%	55	1.4	Downtrend Reversal	Higher(0.7%)	4	0.7	-0.2	Correction	24.58(-0.4%)	24.55-24.72	53.97	-3.3%-6.4%
24	Oct_23_2020	24.75 (0.2%)	24.98 (0%)	24.9 (0.2%)	24.95	25.09(0%)	25.25(0.32%)	25.05-25.41	0.9(1)	0.2	0.7%	0.1%	0%	0.08%	0.9%	58	1.7	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	4	1.4	0.8	N/A	25.21(-0.15%)	24.97-25.41	45.84	-1%-8.8%
25	Oct_22_2020	24.66 (0.2%)	24.97 (0%)	24.85 (0.2%)	24.84	24.84(0%)	25.17(1.99%)	24.66-25.2	0.8(0.9)	0.7	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.1%	1.2%	62	1.9	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	4	1.5	0.6	N/A	25.15(-0.09%)	24.9-25.35	38.79	-1.3%-8.5%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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