Trading Signals: VXX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ VXX: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Nov. 3, 2020

Trading Signals: VXX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Jan. 18, 2018 - Wed. Feb. 24, 2021)

(iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
VXX latest price $24.5100 (-5.51%) ($24.1900 - $25.3100) on Tue. Nov. 3, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Confirmed Correction
Trend Narrative   Uptrend Dip
Average Daily Price Swing   $1.69 (7.12% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.96% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.3% (StdDev 3.96%)
Daily Moving Force   -2.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   1.2%
Trend Strength   4%
RSI   64
Momentum   1.8
Latest Price   $24.5100(-5.51%)
Forecasted Low Price   24.26(-1%)
Forecasted High Price   25(2%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(-0.2%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   0.5% (24.38)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.4%
Hourly Trend -3.1% [$25.25(-0.79), $25.82(-0.51)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   6
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   VXX advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   VXX advances 7.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support VXX decline at-1.1% a week (75% probability)
VIXM(86%)    UUP(27%)    SHY(22%)    TLT(19%)    XRT(15%)
Factors Impacting VXX price   VXX will decline at least -0.1% in a week (75% probabilities).
VT(-78%)    SPY(-78%)    XLY(-74%)    IVW(-73%)    VUG(-71%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the Dip

Valuation to SPY 0.5

Relative Volatility 1.2 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   -0.9% (StdDev 3.96%)
Hourly BBV -0.9 ()
Intraday Trend -2.5%

Next Day Open Price   $24.29(-0.9%)
5 Day Moving Average   $26.09(-6.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.67(-0.65%)
20 Day Moving Average   $23.72(3.33%)
To recent high   -22.7%
To recent low   12.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. VXX price fluctuates within 7.12% (three month std-dev: 3.96% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. VXX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201203

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Nov_3_2020	23.72 (0.2%)	24.67 (1.6%)	26.09 (0.2%)	25.82	25.25(0%)	24.51(-5.51%)	24.19-25.31	1.4(0.5)	-0.9	-2.1%	0.3%	0%	1.2%	4%	64	1.8	Confirmed Correction	Range(1%)	6	0.5	-1.6	Uptrend Dip	26(6.06%)	24.25-26.43	38.31	-22.7%-12.2%
2	Nov_2_2020	23.74 (0.2%)	24.56 (1.8%)	26.04 (1.4%)	26.33	26.04(0%)	25.94(-2.22%)	25.25-26.3	1.5(1.3)	1.1	%	0.9%	0%	1.28%	3.4%	69	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2%)	7	1.3	-2.5	Uptrend Dip	27.7(6.8%)	25.1-28.35	41.41	-18.2%-18.7%
3	Oct_30_2020	23.68 (0.2%)	24.28 (1.6%)	25.69 (3.5%)	25.96	26.39(0%)	26.53(3.03%)	25.77-27.01	1.4(1.7)	3.5	1.1%	1.3%	0%	1.24%	2.6%	73	1.8	Growing Uptrend Correction	Higher(2.4%)	8	1.8	-2.2	Growing Uptrend	27.41(3.32%)	26.01-27.76	39.89	-16.3%-21.4%
4	Oct_29_2020	23.61 (-0%)	23.85 (1.2%)	24.82 (3%)	25.23	26.62(0%)	25.75(-7.14%)	24.94-27.71	1(1.3)	1.5	3.9%	1.2%	0%	0.9%	1%	67	1.7	Uptrend Dip	Higher(8.7%)	8	1.4	-2.4	Uptrend Reversal	26.31(2.17%)	25.84-26.62	46.8	-18.8%-17.8%
5	Oct_28_2020	23.55 (-0.2%)	23.47 (0.8%)	24.1 (4.4%)	24.19	25.53(0%)	27.73(14.26%)	25.77-27.77	0.6(2.7)	2.9	5.5%	2.1%	0%	0.52%	-0.3%	67	1.7	Breakout	Higher(7.6%)	8	2.6	-2.4	Uptrend Reversal	28.32(2.12%)	27.82-28.65	77.02	-12.6%-26.9%

6	Oct_27_2020	23.38 (-0.6%)	22.86 (0.2%)	23.09 (0.9%)	23.08	23.85(0%)	24.27(0.41%)	23.75-24.69	-0.2(0.7)	1.1	2.7%	0.7%	0%	-0.06%	-2.2%	46	1.7	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(3.4%)	7	0.5	-0.6	Rebound	23.78(-2.03%)	24.2-23.6	33.65	-23.5%-11.1%
7	Oct_26_2020	23.4 (-0.6%)	22.63 (-0.2%)	22.88 (0.8%)	22.76	22.85(0%)	24.17(9.02%)	22.47-24.57	-0.5(0.6)	1.7	1.5%	0.7%	0%	-0.32%	-3.3%	41	1.7	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(2.2%)	6	0.5	-0.2	Rebound	23.79(-1.56%)	23.89-23.75	50.61	-23.8%-10.6%
8	Oct_23_2020	23.45 (-0.6%)	22.39 (-0.6%)	22.69 (-0.1%)	22.67	22.31(0%)	22.17(0.09%)	22.02-22.66	-0.8(-0.9)	-1.4	-1%	-0.3%	0%	-0.58%	-4.5%	29	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(-1.3%)	5	-1	0.8	Rebound	22.68(2.31%)	21.7-23.1	18.85	-30.1%-1.5%
9	Oct_22_2020	23.61 (-0.6%)	22.4 (-0.8%)	22.69 (0%)	22.8	22.66(0%)	22.15(-2.34%)	21.94-22.84	-0.8(-1)	-1.4	-0.7%	-0.7%	0%	-0.74%	-5.1%	26	2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	5	-1.1	0.6	Downtrend	21.79(-1.63%)	21.53-22.39	22.62	-30.1%-1.4%
10	Oct_21_2020	23.81 (-0.6%)	22.53 (-1%)	22.71 (0.7%)	22.72	23.04(0%)	22.68(-2.37%)	22.53-23.41	-0.9(-0.7)	1.6	0.5%	-0.7%	0%	-0.82%	-5.4%	35	2	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(1%)	5	-0.9	0.1	Downtrend	22.27(-1.79%)	22.02-22.86	27.07	-28.5%-3.8%

11	Oct_20_2020	24 (-0.4%)	22.69 (-1%)	22.55 (0.9%)	22.62	22.93(0%)	23.23(-0.04%)	22.87-23.36	-1.1(-0.5)	1.3	1.7%	-0.7%	0%	-0.88%	-5.5%	38	2	Confirmed Rebound	Range(1%)	4	-0.6	0.2	Downtrend	22.74(-2.1%)	22.48-23.34	29.67	-26.7%-6.3%
12	Oct_19_2020	24.11 (-0.6%)	22.87 (-1.2%)	22.34 (1.3%)	22.32	22.41(0%)	23.24(4.36%)	22.11-23.38	-1.4(-0.6)	2.2	0.6%	-0.6%	0%	-0.96%	-5.1%	38	2	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(0%)	3	-0.6	1.2	Downtrend	22.71(-2.27%)	22.42-23.39	27.73	-26.7%-6.4%
13	Oct_16_2020	24.2 (-0.6%)	23.02 (-1.2%)	22.34 (0%)	22.19	22.32(0%)	22.27(0.72%)	21.74-22.27	-1.8(-1.3)	-0.5	0.2%	-1.2%	0%	-1.08%	-4.9%	28	2	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(-1%)	3	-1.4	0.9	Downtrend	21.73(-2.43%)	21.36-22.58	23.36	-29.9%-1.9%
14	Oct_15_2020	24.32 (-0.6%)	23.35 (-1.2%)	22.06 (-1.3%)	22.15	22.24(0%)	22.11(0.87%)	22.04-23.1	-2.1(-1.5)	-1.6	0.1%	-1%	2.6%	-1.1%	-4%	25	1.9	Downtrend	Range(0.1%)	3	-1.6	0.7	Relative Oversold	22.09(-0.11%)	20.73-23.2	32.78	-31.5%-1.2%
15	Oct_14_2020	24.45 (-0.6%)	23.64 (-1.2%)	22.34 (-2.3%)	22.16	22.24(0%)	21.92(-1.04%)	21.58-22.26	-2.3(-1.9)	-4.7	-1.1%	-1.1%	4.8%	-1.08%	-3.3%	21	1.7	Growing Downtrend	Higher(3.1%)	2	-1.9	0.9	Downtrend	21.44(-2.18%)	21.07-22.32	29.61	-34%-0.3%

16	Oct_13_2020	24.61 (-0.6%)	23.95 (-1.2%)	22.86 (-2.7%)	22.65	22.07(0%)	22.15(1.37%)	21.96-22.59	-2.2(-2)	-5.5	-1.8%	-1%	3.4%	-1.02%	-2.7%	20	1.5	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.6%)	2	-2	0.9	Relative Oversold	22.27(0.53%)	20.98-23.32	23.33	-37.1%-1.4%
17	Oct_12_2020	24.77 (-0.6%)	24.24 (-1%)	23.49 (-2.6%)	23.26	22.25(0%)	21.85(-1.97%)	21.78-22.29	-2(-2.7)	-2.2	-3.7%	-1.3%	1%	-0.84%	-2.1%	32	1.3	Breakdown	Lower(-3%)	2	-2.6	1.3	Bottom	22.27(1.91%)	21.58-22.72	31.19	-38%-0%
18	Oct_9_2020	24.95 (-0.6%)	24.61 (-0.6%)	24.12 (-2.8%)	24.01	23.22(0%)	22.29(-5.19%)	22.28-22.82	-1.6(-3)	-2.9	-3.7%	-1.2%	0%	-0.66%	-1.3%	35	1	Breakdown	Lower(-2.3%)	2	-2.8	1.1	Bottom	22.72(1.93%)	22.11-23.12	28.99	-36.7%-0%
19	Oct_8_2020	25.12 (-0.6%)	24.96 (-0.4%)	24.81 (-1.2%)	24.69	24.26(0%)	23.51(-4%)	23.46-24.35	-0.9(-2.1)	-2.2	-2%	-1%	0%	-0.42%	-0.6%	48	0.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(-1%)	3	-2.1	1.1	Growing Downtrend	23.43(-0.36%)	23.29-23.75	22.88	-33.3%-0%
20	Oct_7_2020	25.3 (-0.6%)	25.23 (-0%)	25.11 (-0.4%)	25.21	24.81(0%)	24.49(-3.28%)	24.31-24.93	-0.5(-1.1)	-2.6	-0.8%	-0.7%	0%	-0.24%	-0.3%	54	0.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.1%)	4	-1.4	0.7	Growing Downtrend	24.45(-0.18%)	24.38-24.6	19.35	-30.5%-0.7%

21	Oct_6_2020	25.41 (-0.6%)	25.45 (0.2%)	25.2 (0.3%)	25.27	25.12(0%)	25.32(1.4%)	24.29-25.54	-0.4(-0.1)	0	-0.8%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	0.1%	54	1.1	Growing Downtrend	Range(-1%)	5	-0.3	0.3	N/A	25.26(-0.25%)	25.18-25.32	34.66	-28.1%-4.1%
22	Oct_5_2020	25.55 (-0.6%)	25.46 (0%)	25.12 (-0.3%)	25.21	25.6(0%)	24.97(-3.14%)	24.78-25.8	-0.5(-0.6)	-0.4	0.3%	-0.3%	0%	-0.12%	-0.4%	51	1.1	Downtrend Consolidation	Range(1.6%)	6	-1	0.5	N/A	25.06(0.37%)	24.83-25.25	20.76	-29.1%-2.6%
23	Oct_2_2020	25.73 (-0.4%)	25.48 (0.2%)	25.2 (0.2%)	25.18	25.42(0%)	25.78(3.08%)	25.29-26.38	-0.5(0)	1.4	1.4%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	-1%	56	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.5%)	6	-0.2	0.7	Rebound	25.76(-0.07%)	25.72-25.78	29.5	-26.8%-6%
24	Oct_1_2020	26 (-0.4%)	25.35 (0%)	25.15 (-1%)	25.04	24.83(0%)	25.01(0.44%)	24.61-25.4	-0.6(-0.6)	-1.4	-0.7%	-0%	0%	-0.06%	-2.5%	46	2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.7%)	5	-0.8	0.9	N/A	25.25(0.94%)	24.76-25.64	24.12	-29%-2.8%
25	Sep_30_2020	26.14 (-0.2%)	25.3 (-0%)	25.39 (-1.4%)	25.29	24.93(0%)	24.9(-0.16%)	24.29-25.17	-0.6(-0.7)	-1.3	-1.4%	-0.2%	0%	-0.08%	-3.2%	34	2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-1.5%)	5	-0.8	0.8	Range Bound	25(0.39%)	25.33-24.73	25.08	-29.3%-2.3%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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