Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ TLT: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Feb. 25, 2021

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Feb. 25, 2021)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $138.5700 (-1.64%) ($138.5700 - $138.5700) on Thu. Feb. 25, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Downtrend
Trend Narrative   Bottom
Average Daily Price Swing   $3.96 (2.7% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.72% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   -0.7% (StdDev 0.72%)
Daily Moving Force   -1%
Rebound Strength   None(0%)
Trend   -0.48%
Trend Strength   -2.1%
RSI   17
Momentum   3.7
Latest Price   $138.5700(-1.64%)
Forecasted Low Price   137.05(-1.1%)
Forecasted High Price   138.85(0.2%)
Direction of Next Movement   Lower(-1.3%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Rebound   3.5% ((143.44))
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   4.1%
Hourly Trend -1.2% [$139.73(-1.64), $140.84(-1.17)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   1
Intraday Reversal Probability   There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to upside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend   TLT declines -0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -2.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT decline at-0.3% a week (85% probability)
BND(88%)    LQD(83%)    BNDX(75%)    VCIT(75%)    PCY(71%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.1% in a week (72% probabilities).
FEX(-81%)    HYXU(-27%)    EWP(-23%)    OIH(-21%)    EWG(-19%)
Explanation The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Buy the bottom

Valuation to SPY -1.4

Relative Volatility 2.1 (options are extremely expensive)

Market Trend Strength   -1.1% (StdDev 0.72%)
Hourly BBV -2.4 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Next Day Open Price   $138.4(-0.12%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Resistance Level   $146.79
5 Day Moving Average   $141.33(-1.95%)
10 Day Moving Average   $143.68(-3.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $146.79(-5.6%)
To recent high   -13.5%
To recent low   0%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.7% (three month std-dev: 0.72% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. TLT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart Hourly Chart 15 Minute Chart

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Feb_25_2021	146.79 (-0.4%)	143.68 (-0.6%)	141.33 (-0.9%)	140.84	139.73(0%)	138.57(-1.64%)	138.57-138.57	-1.9(-2.1)	-2.4	-1%	-0.7%	0%	-0.48%	-2.1%	17	3.7	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.9%)	1	-1.4	0.5	Bottom	138.94(0.27%)	135.86-141	45.2	-13.5%-0%
2	Feb_24_2021	147.57 (-0.4%)	144.8 (-0.4%)	142.66 (-0.7%)	142.01	141.37(0%)	140.89(-0.68%)	140.89-140.89	-1.9(-1.8)	-2.2	-0.6%	-0.5%	0%	-0.4%	-1.9%	19	3.6	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.8%)	2	-1.6	1.1	Downtrend	138.11(-1.97%)	136.46-141.95	15.02	-12%-0%
3	Feb_23_2021	148.2 (-0.2%)	145.61 (-0.4%)	143.64 (-0.4%)	143.1	141.96(0%)	141.86(-0.14%)	141.86-141.86	-1.9(-1.8)	-2.6	-0.5%	-0.5%	0%	-0.36%	-1.8%	18	3.4	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.9%)	2	-1.4	1.5	Downtrend	139.56(-1.62%)	138.13-142.88	11.71	-11.7%-0%
4	Feb_22_2021	148.79 (-0.2%)	146.31 (-0.4%)	144.25 (-0.7%)	144.09	142.66(0%)	142.06(-0.83%)	142.06-142.06	-2(-2)	-2.3	-0.8%	-0.4%	0.5%	-0.36%	-1.7%	17	3.2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	2	-1.4	1.7	Downtrend	139.9(-1.52%)	138.53-143.1	10.84	-11.6%-0%
5	Feb_19_2021	149.31 (-0.2%)	146.95 (-0.4%)	145.26 (-0.8%)	144.8	144.25(0%)	143.26(-1.36%)	143.26-143.26	-1.9(-2)	-2.3	-0.8%	-0.4%	0%	-0.34%	-1.6%	19	2.8	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.5%)	2	-1.7	1.9	Bottom	143.8(0.38%)	141.82-145.14	10.78	-11.3%-0%

6	Feb_18_2021	149.74 (-0.2%)	147.58 (-0.4%)	146.4 (-0.6%)	145.76	145.53(0%)	145.24(-0.4%)	145.24-145.24	-1.8(-1.7)	-3.6	-0.3%	-0.3%	0%	-0.3%	-1.4%	19	2.5	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.4%)	2	-1.5	1.9	Bottom	145.63(0.27%)	144.07-146.66	10.07	-10.1%-0.3%
7	Feb_17_2021	150.11 (-0.2%)	148.03 (-0.4%)	147.3 (-0.4%)	146.69	145.35(0%)	145.82(0.65%)	145.82-145.82	-1.7(-1.7)	-1.3	-0.5%	-0.3%	0%	-0.28%	-1.4%	19	2.4	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-0.8%)	2	-1.6	2.1	Relative Oversold	145.62(-0.14%)	142.91-147.82	10.63	-9.7%-0.7%
8	Feb_16_2021	150.45 (-0.2%)	148.55 (-0.4%)	147.9 (-0.5%)	147.67	145.99(0%)	144.88(-1.52%)	144.88-144.88	-1.7(-2.4)	-1.8	-1%	-0.4%	0%	-0.26%	-1.3%	16	2.2	Breakdown	Lower(-0.6%)	2	-2	2	Growing Downtrend	144(-0.61%)	143.1-145.83	14.97	-10.3%-0%
9	Feb_12_2021	150.82 (-0.2%)	149.27 (-0.2%)	148.65 (-0.1%)	148.65	148.03(0%)	147.11(-1.25%)	147.11-147.11	-1.5(-1.9)	-2.1	-0.6%	-0.3%	0%	-0.24%	-1%	19	1.9	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	2	-2	2.1	Downtrend	146.43(-0.46%)	145.89-147.72	11.63	-8.9%-0%
10	Feb_11_2021	151.05 (-0.2%)	149.75 (-0.2%)	148.86 (-0.1%)	149.04	149.35(0%)	148.96(-0.52%)	148.96-148.96	-1.5(-1.2)	-0.5	0.1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.22%	-0.9%	37	1.6	Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop	Range(0.2%)	2	-1.6	2.2	Downtrend	148.35(-0.41%)	147.95-149.3	9.8	-7.8%-0.5%

11	Feb_10_2021	151.24 (-0.2%)	150.13 (-0.2%)	148.94 (0%)	148.83	149.28(0%)	149.74(0.62%)	149.74-149.74	-1.7(-0.9)	2	0.2%	-0.2%	0%	-0.2%	-0.7%	43	1.6	Rebound	Range(0%)	1	-1.5	2.2	Downtrend	149.19(-0.37%)	148.84-149.99	6.32	-7.3%-1.1%
12	Feb_9_2021	151.31 (-0.2%)	150.5 (-0.2%)	148.92 (-0.3%)	148.73	148.73(0%)	148.81(0.11%)	148.81-148.81	-2(-1.5)	-1.3	%	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.22%	-0.5%	33	1.6	Downtrend	Range(0%)	1	-1.9	2	Relative Oversold	148.77(-0.03%)	147.25-150.01	4.9	-7.9%-0.4%
13	Feb_8_2021	151.44 (-0.2%)	150.95 (-0.2%)	149.35 (-0.4%)	148.94	148.39(0%)	148.65(0.33%)	148.65-148.65	-2(-1.8)	-2.5	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%	33	1.4	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.4%)	2	-2.3	1.8	Relative Oversold	148.77(0.08%)	147.42-149.88	6.59	-8%-0.3%
14	Feb_5_2021	151.59 (-0.2%)	151.44 (-0.2%)	150.01 (-0.5%)	149.52	148.73(0%)	148.16(-0.78%)	148.07-148.16	-1.9(-2.5)	-4.2	-0.5%	-0.2%	0%	-0.16%	-0.1%	34	1.2	Breakdown	Range(-0.3%)	3	-2.3	1.7	Growing Downtrend	147.88(-0.19%)	147.49-148.76	8.5	-8.3%-0%
15	Feb_4_2021	151.8 (-0.2%)	151.84 (-0%)	150.77 (-0.5%)	150.47	149.48(0%)	149.32(-0.23%)	149.32-149.32	-1.5(-2.2)	-3.2	-0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.12%	0%	43	1	Breakdown	Lower(-0.5%)	3	-1.8	1.5	Downtrend	149.14(-0.12%)	148.88-149.76	6.54	-7.5%-0%

16	Feb_3_2021	152 (-0.2%)	152.08 (-0%)	151.49 (-0.5%)	151.12	150.31(0%)	149.67(-0.86%)	149.59-149.67	-1(-2.4)	-2.4	-0.7%	-0.2%	0%	-0.08%	0.1%	37	0.8	Breakdown	Lower(-0.5%)	3	-1.3	1.7	Downtrend	149.58(-0.06%)	149.38-150.04	9.11	-7.3%-0%
17	Feb_2_2021	152.33 (-0.2%)	152.38 (0%)	152.3 (-0.3%)	151.94	151.46(0%)	150.97(-0.65%)	150.97-150.97	-0.5(-1.1)	-2.8	-0.4%	-0.1%	0%	-0.02%	0%	52	1	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	4	-0.9	1.4	N/A	151.26(0.19%)	150.69-151.71	7.34	-6.5%-0%
18	Feb_1_2021	152.63 (-0.2%)	152.38 (0%)	152.78 (-0.2%)	152.63	151.94(0%)	151.95(0.02%)	151.95-151.95	-0.2(-0.4)	-2	-0.3%	-0.1%	0%	0.02%	-0.1%	56	1.3	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-0.4%)	5	0	1.1	Growing Downtrend	151.92(-0.02%)	151.87-152.03	7.23	-5.9%-0.6%
19	Jan_29_2021	152.9 (-0.2%)	152.53 (0.2%)	153.08 (0%)	152.99	152.42(0%)	151.93(-0.65%)	151.93-151.93	-0.2(-0.6)	-1	-0.4%	-0%	0%	0.04%	-0.2%	54	1.3	Downtrend Reversal	Range(-0.1%)	5	0.4	0.2	N/A	152.33(0.26%)	152.05-152.54	11.64	-5.9%-0.6%
20	Jan_28_2021	153.16 (-0.2%)	152.48 (0.2%)	153.06 (0.2%)	153.37	153.33(0%)	152.92(-0.53%)	152.92-152.92	-0.1(-0.1)	0.4	%	-0%	0%	0.04%	-0.4%	55	1.6	N/A	Range(0.3%)	6	-0.2	0.6	N/A	153.07(0.1%)	153.07-153.07	8.66	-5.3%-1.3%

21	Jan_27_2021	153.35 (-0.2%)	152.45 (0%)	152.74 (0.2%)	153.1	153.56(0%)	153.73(0.22%)	153.73-153.73	-0.3(0.2)	3.9	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.02%	-0.6%	51	1.8	N/A	Range(0.3%)	7	0.3	0.9	Uptrend Reversal	154.45(0.47%)	153.84-154.85	6.94	-4.8%-1.8%
22	Jan_26_2021	153.51 (-0.2%)	152.18 (-0%)	152.49 (0.2%)	152.5	153.42(0%)	153.39(-0.04%)	153.39-153.39	-0.5(-0.1)	0.9	0.3%	0.1%	0%	-0.04%	-0.9%	36	1.9	Uptrend Reversal	Range(0.4%)	6	-0.7	1.5	Rebound	153.45(0.04%)	153.03-153.63	5.78	-5%-1.6%
23	Jan_25_2021	153.69 (-0.2%)	151.94 (-0%)	152.26 (0.2%)	152.26	152.64(0%)	153.46(1.08%)	153.46-153.46	-0.7(-0.1)	1	0.5%	0.1%	0%	-0.12%	-1.1%	33	2	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(0.6%)	5	-0.7	2.2	Rebound	153.44(-0.01%)	152.82-153.72	7.16	-5%-1.6%
24	Jan_22_2021	153.84 (-0.2%)	151.71 (-0.2%)	151.94 (0.1%)	151.96	151.57(0%)	151.82(0.32%)	151.82-151.82	-0.9(-0.8)	0.5	-0.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.2%	-1.4%	25	2.1	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.2%)	4	-1.1	2.1	After Bottom	151.67(-0.1%)	150.07-152.99	5.49	-6%-0.5%
25	Jan_21_2021	154.12 (-0.2%)	151.72 (-0.2%)	151.82 (-0.2%)	151.97	151.88(0%)	151.33(-0.73%)	151.33-151.33	-1(-1)	-2.4	-0.2%	-0.1%	0%	-0.24%	-1.6%	25	2.2	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.1%)	4	-1.4	2.4	Downtrend	150.36(-0.64%)	149.73-151.86	6.09	-6.3%-0.2%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low