Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jul. 23, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 19, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $439.9400 (1.03%) ($436.7900 - $440.3000) on Fri. Jul. 23, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.71% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $439.9400(1.03%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(94%)    QQQ(94%)    IVE(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.355% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-50%)    UUP(-27%)    VXX(-14%)    TBT(-3%)    IGOV(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.355% (StdDev 0.71%)
Hourly BBV 1.7 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $433.22(1.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $434.11(1.34%)
20 Day Moving Average   $432.58(1.7%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.9
One Month Target Price   > $439.94
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $424.32

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -1.3% away from the target price of 439.94.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0.89% (three month std-dev: 0.71%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 24 Average positive next day return: 1.43%(58%) Average negative next day return: -0.43%(42%) Sample size 24 Average positive next three day return: 2.36%(42%) Average negative next three day return: -0.72%(58%) Sample size 24 Average positive next weekly return: 2.04%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.34%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210823

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_23_2021	415.08	432.58	434.11	433.22	433.81	436.79	439.94(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	286	50	337	131	63.44	61%	0.15	73	0.71%	1.7	1.9	57	-0.2
2	Jul_22_2021	414.44	431.83	433.58	431.5	430.69	434.04	435.46(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	201	50	240	83	47.7	59%	0.14	65.9	0.71%	1.3	1	57	-0
3	Jul_21_2021	413.88	431.22	433.14	431.36	430.36	430.84	434.55(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	191	0	228	81	64.34	59%	0.12	59.8	0.72%	1.1	0.8	59	0.7
4	Jul_20_2021	413.4	430.67	433.1	431.7	430.68	427.34	431.06(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-226	-60	-267	-101	99.33	57%	0.1	57.3	0.72%	0.7	0.1	56	-0.5
5	Jul_19_2021	412.97	430.2	433.31	432.61	432.71	429.88	425.11(-1.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-345	-50	-413	-140	147.33	54%	0.11	54.4	0.71%	-1.5	-1	50	-2.8

6	Jul_16_2021	412.52	429.8	434.27	435	435.22	434.02	431.34(-0.78%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-106	-20	-144	9	75.48	58%	0.12	50.4	0.69%	-2.1	0.3	62	0.3
7	Jul_15_2021	412.02	429.36	434.25	435.84	435.88	435.53	434.75(-0.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-22	-10	-52	68	54.85	63%	0.11	52.1	0.68%	-1.2	0.9	72	1
8	Jul_14_2021	411.58	428.73	433.64	435.07	435.68	436.43	436.24(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	101	20	92	128	63.92	63%	0.12	48.9	0.69%	-0.3	1.2	79	1.6
9	Jul_13_2021	411.08	428.12	432.81	434.71	433.96	436.23	435.59(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	132	30	126	149	52.13	63%	0.12	51.5	0.69%	-0.3	1.3	76	1.2
10	Jul_12_2021	410.59	427.57	432.01	434.18	433.3	434.94	437.08(0.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	263	20	278	217	51.22	63%	0.12	53.8	0.69%	1.2	1.7	82	1.2

11	Jul_9_2021	410.11	426.89	430.95	433.51	432.42	431.69	435.52(1.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	49	-20	21	132	74.72	63%	0.11	57.5	0.69%	1.3	1.7	86	1.1
12	Jul_8_2021	409.65	426.26	429.91	432.49	432.13	431.67	430.92(-0.81%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-58	-10	-104	80	97.36	61%	0.1	61.3	0.68%	-0.9	1	63	-0.1
13	Jul_7_2021	409.26	425.79	429.13	431.92	432.12	433.14	434.46(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	127	20	114	165	63.36	64%	0.11	60	0.68%	1.6	1.9	69	1
14	Jul_6_2021	408.83	425.15	427.99	430.57	430.66	432.59	432.93(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	171	30	171	172	68.15	64%	0.1	61	0.68%	0.8	1.8	62	0.9
15	Jul_2_2021	408.42	424.58	426.79	429.48	429.45	431.09	433.72(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	224	30	239	179	57.46	67%	0.11	64	0.69%	1.7	2.4	61	1.5

16	Jul_1_2021	407.98	423.98	424.94	428.05	428.08	428.74	430.43(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	107	10	111	96	53.19	68%	0.1	64.6	0.69%	2	1.9	59	1.7
17	Jun_30_2021	407.57	423.38	424.05	426.99	427.24	427.81	428.06(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	65	10	65	63	63.88	68%	0.1	62.5	0.69%	0.9	1.5	57	1.5
18	Jun_29_2021	407.18	422.99	423.42	425.9	426.55	427.43	427.7(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	101	20	111	70	35.88	68%	0.09	58	0.7%	0.8	1.6	60	1.4
19	Jun_28_2021	406.8	422.57	423.03	424.98	425.37	426.67	427.47(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	119	20	134	73	51.54	68%	0.1	53.8	0.7%	1.8	1.8	58	1.7
20	Jun_25_2021	406.4	422.19	422.73	423.66	424.11	425.68	426.61(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	179	30	207	93	57.81	70%	0.1	52.5	0.72%	1.4	1.7	57	2

21	Jun_24_2021	405.98	421.81	422.44	421.32	422.21	424.07	425.1(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	170	40	203	69	44.05	70%	0.11	36.8	0.72%	1.3	1.4	54	1.7
22	Jun_23_2021	405.54	421.5	422.25	420.69	419.98	422.55	422.6(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	143	40	171	58	48.81	70%	0.1	46.4	0.72%	1	0.5	58	1.7
23	Jun_22_2021	405.12	421.29	422.16	420.59	419.58	420.34	423.11(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	159	10	190	66	57.39	70%	0.12	56.9	0.73%	1.6	0.7	55	1.4
24	Jun_21_2021	404.64	421.1	422.06	420.87	419.8	417.41	420.86(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-138	-50	-162	-67	71.6	70%	0.13	67.2	0.74%	0.6	-0.1	53	0.6
25	Jun_18_2021	404.12	420.83	422.21	421.75	421.31	418.82	414.92(-1.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.5	-280	-40	-333	-122	114.97	63%		65.2	0.72%	-1.4	-2.1	41	-0.2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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