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     Fri. Mar. 5, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 16, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $383.5600 (1.82%) ($372.6400 - $384.7600) on Fri. Mar. 5, 2021.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Growing Downtrend
Trend Narrative  After Bottom
Average Daily Price Swing  $4.45 (1.15% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  0.93% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  -0.1% (StdDev 0.93%)
Daily Moving Force  -0.3%
Rebound Strength  None(0%)
Hourly Trend Strength  -0.73%
Trend   -0.14%
Trend Strength  -0.8%
Trend Clarity  -0.09(-0.1/4.45/387.54)
RSI   40
Momentum  1.2
Latest Price  $383.5600(1.82%)
Forecasted Low Price  381.26(-0.6%)
Forecasted High Price  384.33(0.2%)
Direction of Next Movement  Lower(-0.9%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Rebound  1.7% ((390.21))
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  0.8%
Hourly Trend   -0.5% [$379.4(-1.75), $382.69(-1.59)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Top Holdings  Top Holding List
Complacency  3
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY declines -1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.3% a week (94% probability)
  VT(96%)    XLK(91%)    FIVG(90%)    IVW(90%)    IWF(90%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will decline at least -0.2% in a week (64% probabilities).
  VXX(-81%)    VIXM(-69%)    UUP(-50%)    TBT(-12%)    CNCR(-5%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   -1.1 (options are cheap)
 
Market Trend Strength  -0.6% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV   0.7 ()
Intraday Trend   0.8%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $386.4(0.74%)
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $387.54
5 Day Moving Average  $383.56(0%)
10 Day Moving Average  $384.55(-0.26%)
20 Day Moving Average  $387.54(-1.03%)
To recent high  -2.3%
To recent low  5.2%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  92%
Stage of the Market  Normal
 
One Year Target Price   $399.4 (4.13%)
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.2)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.6)
Risk Appetite   (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  -79.9 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  7.363 T (Mon. Dec. 14, 2020) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate  0.09% (Wed. Dec. 23, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve   (0)
Credit Spread   (0)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.15% (three month std-dev: 0.93%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20210405

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
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BBV
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RSIMomentumTrend
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CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Mar_5_2021387.54 (0%)384.55 (-0.2%)383.56 (0.2%) 382.69 379.4(0%)383.56(1.82%)372.64-384.76-1.2(-0.9)0.7 -0.3%-0.1%0%-0.73%-0.14%-0.8%401.2 Growing Downtrend  Range(-0.4%)30-0.3After Bottom 384.1(0.14%)381.91-385.87151.67   -2.3%-5.2% 
2Mar_4_2021387.7 (0%)385.16 (-0.2%)382.92 (-0.3%) 384.28 381.15(0%)376.72(-1.23%)371.88-384-1.2(-2.5)-1.6 -0.8%-0.3%0%-0.87%-0.14%-0.7%361.2 Breakdown  Lower(-0.5%)300.3Correction 372.73(-1.06%)372.05-375.45181.84   -4.1%-3.3% 
3Mar_3_2021388.06 (0%)386.62 (-0.2%)384.05 (-0.5%) 385.2 385.98(0%)381.42(-1.32%)381.31-386.83-0.7(-1.7)-2.6 -0.3%-0.2%0%-0.25%-0.12%-0.4%401.1 Growing Downtrend Downtrend Pop Range(0.2%)300.1Correction 378.22(-0.84%)377.67-380.48116.93   -2.9%-4.6% 
4Mar_2_2021388.12 (0.2%)387.73 (-0.2%)386.14 (-0.1%) 385.83 387.4(0%)386.54(-0.78%)386-390.07-0.2(-0.4)0.1 0.4%-0.1%0%0.62%-0.06%-0.1%451.1 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(0.7%)300.5Correction 384.34(-0.57%)383.86-386.1678.7   -1.6%-6% 
5Mar_1_2021387.68 (0%)388.28 (-0.2%)386.33 (0.1%) 386.03 384.42(0%)389.58(2.42%)380.57-390.92-0.1(0.4)1.1 0.1%0%0%0.08%-0.06%0.2%481.4 N/A  Range(0.1%)300.3Correction 388.61(-0.25%)388.19-389.12104.44   -0.8%-6.8% 
 
6Feb_26_2021386.78 (0%)388.54 (-0.2%)385.83 (-0.5%) 385.69 384.27(0%)380.36(-0.53%)378.23-385.58-0.2(-1.1)-1.8 -0.6%-0.2%0%-0.71%-0.06%0.5%401.9 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-0.5%)400.4Correction 375.91(-1.17%)375.08-379.19151.79   -3.1%-5.1% 
7Feb_25_2021386.73 (0%)389.66 (-0%)387.77 (-0.4%) 387.06 387.64(0%)382.37(-2.42%)380.78-391.880.2(-0.7)-1.7 -0.1%-0.1%0%0.28%-0%0.8%471.9 N/A  Higher(1%)500.5Correction 379.39(-0.78%)378.73-382.07145.32   -2.6%-5.6% 
8Feb_24_2021386.42 (0%)390.52 (0%)389.46 (-0%) 388.22 387.12(0%)391.84(1.11%)385.27-392.230.5(0.8)1.6 0.1%0.1%0%0.1%0.06%1.1%752.3 Correction  Range(0.2%)501.1Uptrend 392.23(0.1%)390.83-392.8571.92   -0.2%-8.2% 
9Feb_23_2021386 (0%)390.35 (0%)389.58 (-0.3%) 388.48 386.49(0%)387.52(0.11%)380.2-388.950.6(0.2)0 -0.5%-0%0%-0.47%0.1%1.1%712.2 Correction  Lower(-0.5%)601.5Uptrend Consolidation 387.25(-0.07%)386.87-388.39106.6   -1.3%-8.4% 
10Feb_22_2021385.84 (0.2%)390.69 (0.2%)390.56 (-0.3%) 389.94 389.32(0%)387.08(-0.76%)386.74-389.620.8(0.2)-1.9 -0.3%-0%0%-0.16%0.16%1.3%782.2 Downtrend Reversal  Range(0.1%)701.7Uptrend Consolidation 387.04(-0.01%)386.43-388.8266.84   -1.4%-8.3% 
 
11Feb_19_2021385.63 (0.2%)390.82 (0.4%)391.69 (-0%) 391.3 390.46(0%)390.05(-0.2%)389.55-392.381.1(0.7)-0.7 %0.1%0%0.01%0.26%1.3%902.2 Correction  Range(0.2%)801.9Uptrend 392.82(0.71%)389.23-394.3482.29   -0.7%-9.8% 
12Feb_18_2021385.32 (0.2%)390.48 (0.4%)391.82 (0%) 391.37 390.56(0%)390.82(-0.42%)387.74-391.521.2(0.9)-0.2 -0.2%0.2%0%-0.23%0.3%1.3%692.1 Confirmed Correction  Range(0.2%)901.9Uptrend 393.95(0.8%)389.84-395.7159.41   -0.5%-10% 
13Feb_17_2021384.94 (0.2%)389.67 (0.4%)391.67 (0.1%) 391.51 392.13(0%)392.45(0.02%)389.33-392.661.4(1.2)0.3 %0.2%0%0.01%0.34%1.2%752.1 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)1002.1Uptrend 395.59(0.8%)391.01-397.5852.29   -0.1%-10.4% 
14Feb_16_2021384.24 (0.2%)388.59 (0.4%)391.24 (0.1%) 391.33 392.18(0%)392.38(-0.09%)391.53-394.171.5(1.3)0.5 0.2%0.3%0%0.24%0.32%1.1%582 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)1002Growing Uptrend 396.11(0.95%)390.96-397.4150.46   -0.1%-10.4% 
15Feb_12_2021383.4 (0.2%)387.05 (0.4%)390.87 (0.3%) 390.56 390.89(0%)392.73(0.52%)389.77-392.91.6(1.5)3.3 0.1%0.5%0%0.05%0.3%1%571.9 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)902.1Growing Uptrend 395.95(0.82%)391.33-397.149.63   0%-11.2% 
 
16Feb_11_2021382.66 (0.2%)384.87 (0.2%)389.87 (0.2%) 390.15 390.48(0%)390.71(0.16%)388.1-391.691.6(1.4)1.2 0.1%0.3%0%-0.02%0.22%0.6%571.8 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.4%)802.2Growing Uptrend 393.02(0.59%)389.39-393.9442.43   0%-10.6% 
17Feb_10_2021382.08 (0.2%)383.56 (0.2%)388.95 (0.4%) 389.47 390.24(0%)390.08(-0.06%)387.5-392.281.7(1.5)0.2 0.3%0.3%0%0.08%0.2%0.4%551.7 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)702.2Growing Uptrend 392.03(0.5%)388.69-392.8758.61   -0.1%-10.4% 
18Feb_9_2021381.48 (0.2%)381.99 (0.2%)387.3 (0.5%) 387.98 389.83(0%)390.31(-0.05%)389.17-390.891.6(1.7)0.8 0.4%0.2%0%0.22%0.12%0.1%551.6 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)602Growing Uptrend 391.48(0.3%)388.73-392.1635.28   -0.1%-10.5% 
19Feb_8_2021380.86 (0.2%)381.21 (0%)385.49 (0.8%) 386.02 388.71(0%)390.52(0.72%)388.35-390.551.4(2)1.9 0.6%0.2%0%0.43%0.1%0.1%611.5 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.8%)601.8Breakout 391.18(0.17%)388.82-392.2237.75   0%-10.6% 
20Feb_5_2021380.34 (0.2%)380.45 (0%)382.63 (0.9%) 383.83 386.14(0%)387.71(0.41%)386.49-388.471(1.8)1.4 0.8%0.1%0%0.47%0.08%0%621.3 Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.9%)501.7Growing Uptrend 388.49(0.2%)386.43-388.9948.42   0%-10.7% 
 
21Feb_4_2021379.87 (0%)379.86 (-0%)379.1 (0.5%) 380.51 383.33(0%)386.11(1.12%)382.78-386.240.4(1.6)1.8 0.6%0.1%0%0.28%0%-0%571.2 N/A  Higher(0.7%)501.5N/A 384.99(-0.29%)382.89-386.746.67   0%-12.4% 
22Feb_3_2021379.24 (0%)379.55 (-0%)377.4 (0.4%) 377.54 381.53(0%)381.84(0.15%)380.48-383.7-0.1(0.7)0.6 0.7%0%0%0.92%-0.02%0.1%521.1 N/A  Higher(0.7%)501.7Growing Uptrend 381.76(-0.02%)381.36-381.8451.03   -0.7%-13.6% 
23Feb_2_2021378.74 (0%)379.69 (-0%)375.92 (-0.1%) 376.49 377.69(0%)381.25(1.33%)379.6-383.22-0.4(0.6)1 0.6%0.1%0%0.96%-0.04%0.2%531.2 N/A  Higher(0.7%)501.4Correction 380.14(-0.29%)379.6-380.8463.56   -0.8%-15.5% 
24Feb_1_2021378.15 (0%)379.42 (-0%)376.42 (-0.4%) 375.44 373.55(0%)376.23(1.66%)370.38-377.34-0.5(-0.4)0 -0.5%0%0%-0.59%-0.04%0.3%481.3 N/A  Lower(-0.5%)401.1Correction 373.6(-0.7%)373.03-375.7775.14   -2.1%-13.9% 
25Jan_29_2021378.07 (0%)379.45 (-0%)378.06 (-0.7%) 377.99 375.29(0%)370.07(-2%)368.27-376.67-0.2(-1.7)-1.8 -0.6%-0.2%0%-0.31%-0%0.4%371.4 N/A  Range(0.2%)400.2Correction 367.81(-0.61%)367.32-369.84125.85   -3.7%-13.3% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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