Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Feb. 24, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Apr. 23, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $391.8400 (1.11%) ($385.2700 - $392.2300) on Wed. Feb. 24, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.76% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $391.8400(1.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(96%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(93%)    QQQ(93%)    IWD(92%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.38% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-52%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-17%)    IGOV(-4%)    TBT(-3%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.38% (StdDev 0.76%)
Hourly BBV 1.6 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

Inflection Point   Yes
5 Day Moving Average   $389.46(0.61%)
10 Day Moving Average   $390.52(0.34%)
20 Day Moving Average   $386.42(1.4%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   8.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   0.8
One Month Target Price   > $391.84
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $376.95

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.2% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0.6% away from the target price of 391.84.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.72% (three month std-dev: 0.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0.92%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 1.75%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -0.82%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 7.08%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.33%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210324

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_24_2021	366.09	386.42	390.52	389.46	388.22	387.12	391.84(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	30	-30	30	29	71.92	66%	0.16	22.1	0.76%	1.6	0.8	75	1.4
2	Feb_23_2021	365.5	386	390.35	389.58	388.48	386.49	387.52(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-199	-40	-244	-63	106.6	63%	0.14	27.2	0.78%	0.1	0.2	71	1.3
3	Feb_22_2021	365	385.84	390.69	390.56	389.94	389.32	387.08(-0.76%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-95	-20	-133	19	66.84	63%	0.15	37.5	0.78%	-1.3	0.2	78	1.1
4	Feb_19_2021	364.45	385.63	390.82	391.69	391.3	390.46	390.05(-0.2%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.3	21	-20	-10	115	82.29	63%	0.15	46.2	0.78%	-0.3	0.7	90	1.5
5	Feb_18_2021	363.9	385.32	390.48	391.82	391.37	390.56	390.82(-0.42%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-55	-20	-105	97	59.41	63%	0.16	50.9	0.78%	-0	0.9	69	1.3

6	Feb_17_2021	363.31	384.94	389.67	391.67	391.51	392.13	392.45(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	10	6	155	52.29	63%	0.17	55.8	0.79%	0.4	1.2	75	1.4
7	Feb_16_2021	362.69	384.24	388.59	391.24	391.33	392.18	392.38(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	132	20	112	190	50.46	63%	0.26	55.6	0.8%	0.9	1.3	58	1.2
8	Feb_12_2021	361.74	383.4	387.05	390.87	390.56	390.89	392.73(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	71	0	46	145	49.63	66%	0.2	50.9	0.82%	1.8	1.5	57	1.5
9	Feb_11_2021	361.02	382.66	384.87	389.87	390.15	390.48	390.71(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	62	10	45	113	42.43	66%	0.19	48.3	0.83%	0	1.4	57	1.3
10	Feb_10_2021	360.32	382.08	383.56	388.95	389.47	390.24	390.08(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	95	20	89	112	58.61	66%	0.17	52.4	0.83%	0.5	1.5	55	1

11	Feb_9_2021	359.71	381.48	381.99	387.3	387.98	389.83	390.31(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	139	40	150	104	35.28	66%	0.18	53.3	0.83%	1.3	1.7	55	1.1
12	Feb_8_2021	359.05	380.86	381.21	385.49	386.02	388.71	390.52(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	220	50	249	133	37.75	66%	0.17	57.6	0.84%	1.2	2	61	1.1
13	Feb_5_2021	358.44	380.34	380.45	382.63	383.83	386.14	387.71(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	267	50	308	142	48.42	70%	0.15	54.5	0.84%	1.1	1.8	62	1.1
14	Feb_4_2021	357.9	379.87	379.86	379.1	380.51	383.33	386.11(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	181	60	216	76	46.67	73%	0.14	42.6	0.87%	1.7	1.6	57	1.1
15	Feb_3_2021	357.41	379.24	379.55	377.4	377.54	381.53	381.84(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	214	80	257	83	51.03	74%	0.12	34	0.9%	0.7	0.7	52	0.7

16	Feb_2_2021	356.98	378.74	379.69	375.92	376.49	377.69	381.25(1.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	211	30	256	76	63.56	74%	0.12	20.2	0.92%	1.3	0.6	53	-0.1
17	Feb_1_2021	356.54	378.15	379.42	376.42	375.44	373.55	376.23(1.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-164	-40	-187	-96	75.14	72%	0.12	21.5	0.92%	0.3	-0.4	48	-1.3
18	Jan_29_2021	356.11	378.07	379.45	378.06	377.99	375.29	370.07(-2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-183	-50	-211	-100	125.85	69%	0.11	37.1	0.91%	-1.3	-1.7	37	-2.7
19	Jan_28_2021	355.73	378.24	380.41	380.62	380.53	377.34	377.63(0.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-204	-60	-243	-88	92.96	65%	0.11	60.7	0.87%	-0.3	-0.1	49	-2.2
20	Jan_27_2021	355.34	377.97	380.67	381.94	381.74	380.7	374.4(-2.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-181	-20	-222	-59	122.07	65%	0.12	69.9	0.98%	-2.3	-0.8	54	-3

21	Jan_26_2021	354.92	377.91	381.2	383.84	383.61	383.73	383.79(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	77	0	73	90	41.95	66%	0.08	82.7	0.93%	0.9	1.2	72	0.3
22	Jan_25_2021	354.62	377.18	380.68	382.81	383.1	382.78	384.39(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	23	-0	8	69	70	66%	0.12	75.4	0.96%	-0.1	1.5	76	0.8
23	Jan_22_2021	354.18	376.34	380.31	381.07	381.96	383.5	382.88(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	68	40	62	87	51.76	66%	0.11	65.6	0.96%	0	1.4	63	1.5
24	Jan_21_2021	353.79	375.57	379.91	380.19	380.25	383.43	384.24(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	185	60	198	145	47.33	66%	0.08	56.8	0.96%	1	1.9	67	1.8
25	Jan_20_2021	353.52	374.74	378.85	379.3	379.08	380.42	383.89(1.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	191	20	206	146	61.47	66%		56.5	0.96%	1.6	2	67	1.7
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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