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     Mon. Aug. 10, 2020



Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Sep. 21, 2020)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $335.5700 (0.3%) ($332.9550 - $335.7700) on Mon. Aug. 10, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Overbought
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Value stock rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 1.2% a week (96% probability)
  VT(97%)    DIA(95%)    IVW(94%)    XLY(94%)    IWF(91%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0.4% in a week (60% probabilities).
  VXX(-76%)    VIXM(-75%)    TLT(-47%)    UUP(-41%)    SHY(-27%)  
Trading Plan  A pullback is expected soon.
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   0 (options are faily valued)
 
Hourly BBV   1.8
Hourly Trend   0.29% [$334.29(0.98), $333.31(1.47)]
Last Hour Trend   0.02% [$335.27, $335.21]


SPY Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  67%
Bullish Price Move  1.3%
Bearish Probability  33%
Bearish Price Move  -1.3%
Recommended Position Size  26%
Latest Price  $335.5700
Next Day Open Price  $335.7(0.04%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $332.38(-0.95%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $340.3(1.41%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $328.4 - $338.33
Support Level  $326.21
5 Day Moving Average  $333.33(0.67%)
10 Day Moving Average  $329.51(1.84%)
20 Day Moving Average  $326.21(2.87%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  19.2%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  59%
Stage of the Market  Normal Strong Uptrend
 
Average Volume  53.95 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $335.57
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $313.59
One Year Target Price   $421.04 (25.47%)
 


  
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.9)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.3)
Risk Appetite  Risk Off (-9)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  -44.8 k (Fri. Aug. 7, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  6.945 T (Wed. Aug. 5, 2020) No Change
Fed Fund Rate  1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve  Improving (5)
Credit Spread  Improving (7)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -6.1% away from the target price of 335.57.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.64% (three month std-dev: 1.31%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200910

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVRVT(RV,IV)VIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Aug_10_20200%-19.2% 1.4%,0.9(0.1)1.5%,0.9(0.1)0.4%,0.30.60.02%1%1.71.800(1.64%,0.7%)1.647.38   335.57(0.3%)332.96-335.77Overbought 332.38(-0.95%)328.4-338.3366
2Aug_7_20200%-18.8% 1.3%,0.8(0)1.3%,0.8(0.2)0.5%,0.30.9-0.01%1%1.81.50-0.2(1.57%,0.69%)1.657.03   334.57(0.07%)332.3-334.88Overbought 331.12(-1.03%)327.24-336.9366
3Aug_6_20200%-18.7% 1.2%,0.8(0.1)1%,0.7(0.2)0.6%,0.41.20.19%0.8%21.50-0.3(1.55%,0.9%)1.644.13   334.33(0.67%)331.13-334.46Growing Uptrend 335.57(0.37%)332.26-336.469
4Aug_5_20200%-17.9% 1.1%,0.8(0)0.8%,0.5(0.1)0.4%,0.31.20.01%0.7%1.91.50-0.7(1.44%,0.8%)1.641.93   332.11(0.62%)331.18-332.39Uptrend 332.57(0.14%)330.32-333.5468
5Aug_4_20200%-17.2% 1.1%,0.8(0)0.7%,0.5(0.1)0.6%,0.41.8-0.04%0.8%1.71.70-0.9(1.4%,0.88%)1.541.66   330.06(0.39%)327.86-330.06Uptrend 330.59(0.16%)328.56-331.4564
 
6Aug_3_20200%-16.8% 1.1%,0.8(-0.1)0.6%,0.4(-0.1)0.3%,0.31.20.03%0.9%1.72.10-1.2(1.32%,0.89%)1.652.86   328.79(0.7%)327.73-329.62Uptrend 329.12(0.1%)327.38-329.8766
7Jul_31_2020-0.1%-16% 1.3%,1(0)0.6%,0.5(0.1)0.4%,0.30.30.28%0.9%1.43.40-1.6(1.24%,0.8%)1.785.88   326.52(0.79%)321.33-326.63Uptrend 327.04(0.16%)325.41-327.7370
8Jul_30_2020-0.9%-15% 1.3%,1(-0.1)0.6%,0.4(-0.1)0.1%,00.30.02%1%0.90.70-1.6(1.3%,1.19%)1.762.45   323.96(-0.36%)319.64-324.41Uptrend Consolidation 323.02(-0.29%)322.48-324.6661
9Jul_29_2020-0.5%-15.5% 1.4%,0.9(0)0.7%,0.5(-0.2)-0.1%,-0.10.60.13%1.1%1.20.90-1.4(1.43%,1.04%)1.948.18   325.12(1.23%)322.08-325.73Uptrend Consolidation 323.56(-0.48%)322.8-325.8967
10Jul_28_2020-1.7%-14.1% 1.4%,0.9(0)1%,0.6(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.2-0.3-0.11%1.2%0.5-1.20-1(1.56%,1.1%)1.856.92   321.17(-0.63%)320.85-323.65Uptrend Consolidation 320.66(-0.16%)320.17-322.1759
 
11Jul_27_2020-1.1%-14.8% 1.4%,0.7(0)1.3%,0.7(-0)-0.1%,-0-0.90.07%1.4%0.9-0.20-0(1.83%,1.04%)1.848.44   323.22(0.73%)320.78-323.39Uptrend 324.35(0.35%)322.19-325.2966
12Jul_24_2020-1.8%-13.9% 1.3%,0.6(0)1.3%,0.6(-0.1)-0.1%,-0-0.60.08%1.5%0.6-101.2(2.15%,0.92%)1.576.22   320.88(-0.64%)319.25-321.99Uptrend 322.32(0.45%)320.02-323.356
13Jul_23_2020-1.2%-15.7% 1.2%,0.6(0.1)1.5%,0.7(-0)0.1%,0.10.3-0.33%1.7%0.9001.5(2.23%,1.07%)1.475.54   322.96(-1.19%)321.48-327.23Uptrend 324.61(0.51%)321.7-325.8466
14Jul_22_20200%-17.1% 1.1%,0.5(0)1.6%,0.7(-0)0.3%,0.10.60.06%1.7%1.62.302(2.31%,0.94%)1.757.48   326.86(0.57%)324.5-327.2Uptrend 328.23(0.42%)324.4-329.8973
15Jul_21_20200%-19% 1%,0.5(0)1.7%,0.8(-0)0.4%,0.20.60%1.6%1.51.801.5(2.16%,1.06%)1.757.31   325.01(0.21%)323.94-326.93Uptrend 326.34(0.41%)322.9-327.8274
 
16Jul_20_20200%-18.8% 1%,0.5(0)1.8%,0.9(-0.1)0.6%,0.30.30.13%1.5%1.61.401(2.03%,1.09%)2.156.1   324.32(0.81%)320.62-325.13Uptrend 325.81(0.46%)322.35-327.2877
17Jul_17_2020-0.5%-17.8% 0.9%,0.5(-0.1)2%,1(-0)0.3%,0.10.60.1%1.5%1.51.10-0(1.9%,0.86%)265.38   321.72(0.29%)319.74-322.57Uptrend 322.88(0.36%)319.89-324.1779
18Jul_16_2020-0.7%-17.5% 1%,0.5(0.1)2%,1.1(-0)0.4%,0.21.20.01%1.4%1.510-0.5(1.79%,0.96%)1.854.42   320.79(-0.33%)319.09-321.28Uptrend 322.07(0.4%)319.07-323.3764
19Jul_15_2020-0.4%-17.9% 0.8%,0.4(0.1)2%,1.2(0.2)0.4%,0.20.60.05%1.2%1.91.60-0.8(1.68%,1.17%)1.886.97   321.85(0.92%)319.27-323.04Growing Uptrend 323.17(0.41%)319.83-324.0168
20Jul_14_2020-1.3%-16.8% 0.6%,0.4(0.2)1.7%,1.1(0.2)0.3%,0.20.60.2%1%1.61.20-1.2(1.52%,1.14%)1.391.9   318.92(1.3%)312-319.76Growing Uptrend 319.97(0.33%)317.35-320.6155
 
21Jul_13_2020-2.6%-15.3% 0.2%,0.2(0.1)1.4%,1(0.1)-0.1%,-0.10.6-0.61%0.7%0.9-0.50-1.5(1.44%,1.35%)1102.36   314.84(-0.87%)314.13-322.71Uptrend 315.41(0.18%)314.05-315.9754
22Jul_10_2020-1.7%-16.3% 0.1%,0(0.2)1.3%,0.9(0.2)0.3%,0.2-00.16%0.4%1.620-1.3(1.48%,0.98%)1.357.41   317.59(1.02%)312.76-317.85N/A 316.32(-0.4%)313.01-31950
23Jul_9_2020-2.7%-15.1% -0.2%,-0.1(-0)1%,0.6(0.2)0.3%,0.2-0.60.11%0.4%1-0.70-1.3(1.52%,1.23%)183.01   314.38(-0.57%)310.68-317.1Uptrend Reversal 315.92(0.49%)314.62-316.7850
24Jul_8_2020-2.2%-15.8% -0.2%,-0.1(-0)0.6%,0.4(0.2)0.5%,0.300.12%0%1.30.80-1.2(1.63%,1.18%)1.154.1   316.18(0.76%)312.7-316.3Uptrend Reversal 317.82(0.52%)316.44-318.7650
25Jul_7_2020-2.9%-18.3% -0.1%,-0.1(-0.1)0.3%,0.2(0.1)0.6%,0.31.2-0.18%-0.2%0.70.40-1.1(1.76%,1.15%)182.61   313.78(-1.03%)313.37-317.52Rebound 311.93(-0.59%)314.06-311.0350
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVRVTVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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