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     Wed. Jul. 29, 2020

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Jan. 20, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $325.1200 (1.23%) ($322.0750 - $325.7300) on Wed. Jul. 29, 2020.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative  Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing  $4.57 (1.43% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  1.4% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  0.1% (StdDev 1.4%)
Daily Moving Force  0.1%
Correction Force  Weak (0%)
Trend   0.18%
Latest Price  $325.1200(1.23%)
Forecasted Low Price  323.82(-0.4%)
Forecasted High Price  327.07(0.6%)
Direction of Next Movement  Range(0.2%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction  1.5% (320.46)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  1.3%
Hourly Trend   0.2% [$322.9(0.76), $322.2(-0.19)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  7
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (95% probability)
  VT(96%)    DIA(94%)    IVW(93%)    XLY(92%)    IWF(89%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least 0% in a week (59% probabilities).
  VXX(-77%)    VIXM(-74%)    UUP(-37%)    TLT(-34%)    SHY(-19%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   -1.4 (options are cheap)
 
Market Trend Strength  0.1% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV   1.8 ()
Intraday Trend   0.9%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $325.97(0.26%)
Inflection Point  Yes
Support Level  $319.72
5 Day Moving Average  $322.67(0.76%)
10 Day Moving Average  $323.22(0.59%)
20 Day Moving Average  $319.72(1.69%)
To recent high  -0.5%
To recent low  15.5%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  83%
Stage of the Market  Normal Strong Uptrend
 
Average Volume  63.48 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $325.12
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $302.36
One Year Target Price   $417.65 (28.46%)
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-1)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.5)
Risk Appetite   (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  -43 k (Fri. Jul. 24, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  6.949 T (Wed. Jul. 29, 2020) Reduction
Fed Fund Rate  1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve   (0)
Credit Spread   (0)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is -0.5% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -1.5% away from the target price of 325.12.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.43% (three month std-dev: 1.4%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200829

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Jul_29_2020319.72 (0.2%)323.22 (0.2%)322.67 (-0.1%) 322.2 322.9(0%)325.12(1.23%)322.08-325.731.1(1.2)1.8 0.1%0.1%0%0.18% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)767101.9Uptrend 325.61(0.15%)324.07-326.2848.18   -0.5%-15.5% 
2Jul_28_2020318.91 (0.2%)322.88 (0.2%)323.02 (-0.2%) 322.39 322.14(0%)321.17(-0.63%)320.85-323.650.4(0.5)-2.3 %0.1%0%0.22% Correction  Range(0.4%)7591.101.8Uptrend 322.1(0.29%)320.79-322.6756.92   -1.7%-14.1% 
3Jul_27_2020318.13 (0.2%)322.72 (0.2%)323.79 (-0.1%) 323.34 321.51(0%)323.22(0.73%)320.78-323.390.7(0.9)-0.2 -0.3%0.3%0%0.26% Confirmed Correction  Range(0%)8661.301.8Uptrend 324.42(0.37%)322.33-325.2948.44   -1.1%-14.8% 
4Jul_24_2020317.04 (0.2%)321.95 (0.2%)324.01 (-0.1%) 324.17 322.65(0%)320.88(-0.64%)319.25-321.990.5(0.6)-0.9 -0.4%0.1%0%0.26% Correction  Range(0%)9561.501.5Uptrend 322.36(0.46%)320.19-323.376.22   -1.8%-13.9% 
5Jul_23_2020316.38 (0.2%)321.67 (0.4%)324.17 (0.1%) 324.7 325.16(0%)322.96(-1.19%)321.48-327.230.8(0.9)0 %0.3%0%0.28% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.9%)9661.601.4After Top 323.86(0.28%)319.72-327.2875.54   -1.2%-15.7% 
 
6Jul_22_2020315.46 (0.2%)320.87 (0.4%)323.74 (0.3%) 323.93 325.69(0%)326.86(0.57%)324.5-327.21.4(1.6)3.3 0.4%0.3%0%0.28% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.7%)8731.601.7The Top 326.53(-0.1%)320.62-331.457.48   0%-17.1% 
7Jul_21_2020314.67 (0.2%)319.77 (0.4%)322.74 (0.4%) 322.54 324.23(0%)325.01(0.21%)323.94-326.931.4(1.5)4.2 0.5%0.3%0%0.3% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.8%)8741.501.7The Top 324.72(-0.09%)319.22-329.2257.31   0%-19% 
8Jul_20_2020313.9 (0.2%)318.64 (0.4%)321.52 (0.6%) 321.56 322.17(0%)324.32(0.81%)320.62-325.131.5(1.6)2.6 0.5%0.3%0%0.3% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.8%)8771.402.1Uptrend 325.81(0.46%)322.35-327.2856.1   0%-18.8% 
9Jul_17_2020313.08 (0.2%)317.85 (0.4%)319.62 (0.3%) 319.83 320.85(0%)321.72(0.29%)319.74-322.571.3(1.5)3.3 0.1%0.3%0%0.32% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.4%)8791.302The Top 321.69(-0.01%)317.13-325.3965.38   -0.5%-17.8% 
10Jul_16_2020312.54 (0.2%)316.91 (0.4%)318.8 (0.4%) 318.95 320.95(0%)320.79(-0.33%)319.09-321.281.3(1.5)1.2 0.5%0.3%0%0.34% Growing Uptrend  Higher(1%)8641.201.8Uptrend 322.17(0.43%)319.36-323.3754.42   -0.7%-17.5% 
 
11Jul_15_2020312.04 (0.2%)315.9 (0.4%)317.52 (0.4%) 317.8 318.82(0%)321.85(0.92%)319.27-323.041.7(1.9)1.8 0.5%0.3%0%0.32% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.8%)8681.101.8Growing Uptrend 323.23(0.43%)320.1-324.0186.97   -0.4%-17.9% 
12Jul_14_2020311.53 (0.2%)314.55 (0.4%)316.38 (0.3%) 316.07 316.96(0%)318.92(1.3%)312-319.761.3(1.6)1.1 0.1%0.4%0%0.28% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.5%)855101.3Growing Uptrend 320.04(0.35%)317.71-320.6191.9   -1.3%-16.8% 
13Jul_13_2020310.91 (0%)313.14 (0.2%)315.35 (-0.1%) 315.81 316.78(0%)314.84(-0.87%)314.13-322.710.6(0.9)-0.4 0.3%0.4%0%0.22% Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.1%)7540.901Uptrend 315.47(0.2%)314.27-315.97102.36   -2.6%-15.3% 
14Jul_10_2020310.39 (0%)311.77 (0.2%)315.8 (0.3%) 315.16 315(0%)317.59(1.02%)312.76-317.851.4(1.6)2 0.1%0.3%0%0.18% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.4%)6580.901.3N/A 316.64(-0.3%)313.72-31957.41   -1.7%-16.3% 
15Jul_9_2020309.55 (-0%)310.71 (0.2%)314.72 (0.3%) 315.27 314.44(0%)314.38(-0.57%)310.68-317.10.9(1)-0.7 -0.1%0.2%0%0.12% Uptrend Consolidation  Range(0.4%)6520.901Uptrend Reversal 315.92(0.49%)314.62-316.7883.01   -2.7%-15.1% 
 
16Jul_8_2020309.7 (-0%)309.7 (0.2%)313.95 (0.5%) 315.15 315.32(0%)316.18(0.76%)312.7-316.31.2(1.3)1.7 0.1%0.1%0%0.08% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)653101.1Uptrend Reversal 317.82(0.52%)316.44-318.7654.1   -2.2%-15.8% 
17Jul_7_2020309.84 (-0%)309.18 (0%)312.39 (0.6%) 314.07 316.1(0%)313.78(-1.03%)313.37-317.520.7(0.7)1 0.5%0.1%0%0.04% N/A  Higher(1.1%)6501.101Rebound 311.93(-0.59%)314.06-311.0382.61   -2.9%-18.3% 
18Jul_6_2020310.22 (-0%)308.79 (0%)310.52 (1.1%) 311.87 314.98(0%)317.05(1.54%)315.56-317.681(1.1)2.9 1%0.2%0%0.02% N/A  Higher(1.2%)5591.201.1Rebound 314.16(-0.91%)317.68-312.6761.57   -1.9%-19.7% 
19Jul_2_2020310.25 (-0%)307.84 (-0%)307.12 (0.3%) 308.51 312.05(0%)312.23(0.55%)311.52-315.70.3(0.3)1.8 0.9%0%0%-0.06% N/A  Range(0.9%)4591.101.2Range Bound 311.79(-0.14%)311.61-311.9268.68   -3.4%-25.8% 
20Jul_1_2020310.19 (-0%)307.71 (-0%)306.15 (0.4%) 305.52 308.77(0%)310.52(0.7%)309.07-311.890.1(0.1)1.8 0.8%-0%0%-0.04% N/A  Range(0.8%)4611.100.9Range Bound 310.4(-0.04%)310.21-310.5271.89   -3.9%-26.2% 
 
21Jun_30_2020310.26 (-0%)307.75 (-0.2%)304.86 (-0.2%) 304.08 304.98(0%)308.36(1.28%)303.82-310.2-0.3(-0.3)1 0.4%-0.1%0%-0.1% Uptrend Reversal  Range(0.3%)441100.4Downtrend 308.02(-0.11%)307.75-308.67111.32   -4.6%-25.3% 
22Jun_29_2020310.27 (0%)308.15 (-0.2%)305.6 (-0.4%) 303.58 302.27(0%)304.46(1.47%)298.93-304.61-0.9(-0.9)-1.4 -0.5%-0.1%0%-0.1% -0.86563961352657 Growing Downtrend  Range(-0.6%)437100.4After Bottom 305.8(0.44%)303.55-307.6680.15   -5.8%-23.7% 
23Jun_26_2020310.39 (0%)308.47 (-0.2%)306.83 (-0.6%) 306.12 303.18(0%)300.05(-2.38%)299.42-306.39-1.6(-1.7)-3.8 -0.6%-0.2%0%-0.12% -1.5925167202572 Growing Downtrend  Range(0.4%)432100.1Downtrend 299.99(-0.02%)299.15-302128.83   -7.2%-21.9% 
24Jun_25_2020310.69 (0.2%)309.04 (-0.2%)308.55 (-0.3%) 308.23 304.88(0%)307.35(1.07%)301.28-307.64-0.6(-0.6)-0.5 -0.9%0.1%0%-0.14% N/A  Range(-0.8%)4400.900.2After Bottom 308.18(0.27%)306.46-309.5891.05   -4.9%-24.9% 
25Jun_24_2020310.53 (0.2%)308.47 (-0.2%)309.44 (-0.5%) 309.56 309.06(0%)304.09(-2.55%)302.1-310.51-0.9(-1)-1.8 -0.7%-0.3%0%-0.14% -1.0034969205835 Growing Downtrend  Range(0.3%)4460.900Correction 300.05(-1.33%)299.26-303.18131.2   -5.9%-25.1% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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