Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 29, 2020

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Jan. 20, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $325.1200 (1.23%) ($322.0750 - $325.7300) on Wed. Jul. 29, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $4.57 (1.43% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.4% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.1% (StdDev 1.4%)
Daily Moving Force   0.1%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.18%
Latest Price   $325.1200(1.23%)
Forecasted Low Price   323.82(-0.4%)
Forecasted High Price   327.07(0.6%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.2%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   1.5% (320.46)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.3%
Hourly Trend 0.2% [$322.9(0.76), $322.2(-0.19)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   7
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (95% probability)
VT(96%)    DIA(94%)    IVW(93%)    XLY(92%)    IWF(89%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will advance at least 0% in a week (59% probabilities).
VXX(-77%)    VIXM(-74%)    UUP(-37%)    TLT(-34%)    SHY(-19%)
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0

Relative Volatility -1.4 (options are cheap)

Market Trend Strength   0.1% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV 1.8 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

Next Day Open Price   $325.97(0.26%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Support Level   $319.72
5 Day Moving Average   $322.67(0.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $323.22(0.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $319.72(1.69%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   15.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Advance Ratio   83%
Stage of the Market   Normal Strong Uptrend

Average Volume   63.48 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   0
One Month Target Price   > $325.12
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $302.36
One Year Target Price    $417.65 (28.46%)

Short-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-1)
Mid-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-0.5)
Risk Appetite    (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -43 k (Fri. Jul. 24, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet   6.949 T (Wed. Jul. 29, 2020) Reduction
Fed Fund Rate   1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is -0.5% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -1.5% away from the target price of 325.12.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.43% (three month std-dev: 1.4% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200829

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Jul_29_2020	319.72 (0.2%)	323.22 (0.2%)	322.67 (-0.1%)	322.2	322.9(0%)	325.12(1.23%)	322.08-325.73	1.1(1.2)	1.8	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.18%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	7	67	1	0	1.9	Uptrend	325.61(0.15%)	324.07-326.28	48.18	-0.5%-15.5%
2	Jul_28_2020	318.91 (0.2%)	322.88 (0.2%)	323.02 (-0.2%)	322.39	322.14(0%)	321.17(-0.63%)	320.85-323.65	0.4(0.5)	-2.3	%	0.1%	0%	0.22%	Correction	Range(0.4%)	7	59	1.1	0	1.8	Uptrend	322.1(0.29%)	320.79-322.67	56.92	-1.7%-14.1%
3	Jul_27_2020	318.13 (0.2%)	322.72 (0.2%)	323.79 (-0.1%)	323.34	321.51(0%)	323.22(0.73%)	320.78-323.39	0.7(0.9)	-0.2	-0.3%	0.3%	0%	0.26%	Confirmed Correction	Range(0%)	8	66	1.3	0	1.8	Uptrend	324.42(0.37%)	322.33-325.29	48.44	-1.1%-14.8%
4	Jul_24_2020	317.04 (0.2%)	321.95 (0.2%)	324.01 (-0.1%)	324.17	322.65(0%)	320.88(-0.64%)	319.25-321.99	0.5(0.6)	-0.9	-0.4%	0.1%	0%	0.26%	Correction	Range(0%)	9	56	1.5	0	1.5	Uptrend	322.36(0.46%)	320.19-323.3	76.22	-1.8%-13.9%
5	Jul_23_2020	316.38 (0.2%)	321.67 (0.4%)	324.17 (0.1%)	324.7	325.16(0%)	322.96(-1.19%)	321.48-327.23	0.8(0.9)	0	%	0.3%	0%	0.28%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.9%)	9	66	1.6	0	1.4	After Top	323.86(0.28%)	319.72-327.28	75.54	-1.2%-15.7%

6	Jul_22_2020	315.46 (0.2%)	320.87 (0.4%)	323.74 (0.3%)	323.93	325.69(0%)	326.86(0.57%)	324.5-327.2	1.4(1.6)	3.3	0.4%	0.3%	0%	0.28%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.7%)	8	73	1.6	0	1.7	The Top	326.53(-0.1%)	320.62-331.4	57.48	0%-17.1%
7	Jul_21_2020	314.67 (0.2%)	319.77 (0.4%)	322.74 (0.4%)	322.54	324.23(0%)	325.01(0.21%)	323.94-326.93	1.4(1.5)	4.2	0.5%	0.3%	0%	0.3%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	8	74	1.5	0	1.7	The Top	324.72(-0.09%)	319.22-329.22	57.31	0%-19%
8	Jul_20_2020	313.9 (0.2%)	318.64 (0.4%)	321.52 (0.6%)	321.56	322.17(0%)	324.32(0.81%)	320.62-325.13	1.5(1.6)	2.6	0.5%	0.3%	0%	0.3%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	8	77	1.4	0	2.1	Uptrend	325.81(0.46%)	322.35-327.28	56.1	0%-18.8%
9	Jul_17_2020	313.08 (0.2%)	317.85 (0.4%)	319.62 (0.3%)	319.83	320.85(0%)	321.72(0.29%)	319.74-322.57	1.3(1.5)	3.3	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.32%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	8	79	1.3	0	2	The Top	321.69(-0.01%)	317.13-325.39	65.38	-0.5%-17.8%
10	Jul_16_2020	312.54 (0.2%)	316.91 (0.4%)	318.8 (0.4%)	318.95	320.95(0%)	320.79(-0.33%)	319.09-321.28	1.3(1.5)	1.2	0.5%	0.3%	0%	0.34%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1%)	8	64	1.2	0	1.8	Uptrend	322.17(0.43%)	319.36-323.37	54.42	-0.7%-17.5%

11	Jul_15_2020	312.04 (0.2%)	315.9 (0.4%)	317.52 (0.4%)	317.8	318.82(0%)	321.85(0.92%)	319.27-323.04	1.7(1.9)	1.8	0.5%	0.3%	0%	0.32%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	8	68	1.1	0	1.8	Growing Uptrend	323.23(0.43%)	320.1-324.01	86.97	-0.4%-17.9%
12	Jul_14_2020	311.53 (0.2%)	314.55 (0.4%)	316.38 (0.3%)	316.07	316.96(0%)	318.92(1.3%)	312-319.76	1.3(1.6)	1.1	0.1%	0.4%	0%	0.28%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.5%)	8	55	1	0	1.3	Growing Uptrend	320.04(0.35%)	317.71-320.61	91.9	-1.3%-16.8%
13	Jul_13_2020	310.91 (0%)	313.14 (0.2%)	315.35 (-0.1%)	315.81	316.78(0%)	314.84(-0.87%)	314.13-322.71	0.6(0.9)	-0.4	0.3%	0.4%	0%	0.22%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.1%)	7	54	0.9	0	1	Uptrend	315.47(0.2%)	314.27-315.97	102.36	-2.6%-15.3%
14	Jul_10_2020	310.39 (0%)	311.77 (0.2%)	315.8 (0.3%)	315.16	315(0%)	317.59(1.02%)	312.76-317.85	1.4(1.6)	2	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.18%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	6	58	0.9	0	1.3	N/A	316.64(-0.3%)	313.72-319	57.41	-1.7%-16.3%
15	Jul_9_2020	309.55 (-0%)	310.71 (0.2%)	314.72 (0.3%)	315.27	314.44(0%)	314.38(-0.57%)	310.68-317.1	0.9(1)	-0.7	-0.1%	0.2%	0%	0.12%	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.4%)	6	52	0.9	0	1	Uptrend Reversal	315.92(0.49%)	314.62-316.78	83.01	-2.7%-15.1%

16	Jul_8_2020	309.7 (-0%)	309.7 (0.2%)	313.95 (0.5%)	315.15	315.32(0%)	316.18(0.76%)	312.7-316.3	1.2(1.3)	1.7	0.1%	0.1%	0%	0.08%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.2%)	6	53	1	0	1.1	Uptrend Reversal	317.82(0.52%)	316.44-318.76	54.1	-2.2%-15.8%
17	Jul_7_2020	309.84 (-0%)	309.18 (0%)	312.39 (0.6%)	314.07	316.1(0%)	313.78(-1.03%)	313.37-317.52	0.7(0.7)	1	0.5%	0.1%	0%	0.04%	N/A	Higher(1.1%)	6	50	1.1	0	1	Rebound	311.93(-0.59%)	314.06-311.03	82.61	-2.9%-18.3%
18	Jul_6_2020	310.22 (-0%)	308.79 (0%)	310.52 (1.1%)	311.87	314.98(0%)	317.05(1.54%)	315.56-317.68	1(1.1)	2.9	1%	0.2%	0%	0.02%	N/A	Higher(1.2%)	5	59	1.2	0	1.1	Rebound	314.16(-0.91%)	317.68-312.67	61.57	-1.9%-19.7%
19	Jul_2_2020	310.25 (-0%)	307.84 (-0%)	307.12 (0.3%)	308.51	312.05(0%)	312.23(0.55%)	311.52-315.7	0.3(0.3)	1.8	0.9%	0%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(0.9%)	4	59	1.1	0	1.2	Range Bound	311.79(-0.14%)	311.61-311.92	68.68	-3.4%-25.8%
20	Jul_1_2020	310.19 (-0%)	307.71 (-0%)	306.15 (0.4%)	305.52	308.77(0%)	310.52(0.7%)	309.07-311.89	0.1(0.1)	1.8	0.8%	-0%	0%	-0.04%	N/A	Range(0.8%)	4	61	1.1	0	0.9	Range Bound	310.4(-0.04%)	310.21-310.52	71.89	-3.9%-26.2%

21	Jun_30_2020	310.26 (-0%)	307.75 (-0.2%)	304.86 (-0.2%)	304.08	304.98(0%)	308.36(1.28%)	303.82-310.2	-0.3(-0.3)	1	0.4%	-0.1%	0%	-0.1%	Uptrend Reversal	Range(0.3%)	4	41	1	0	0.4	Downtrend	308.02(-0.11%)	307.75-308.67	111.32	-4.6%-25.3%
22	Jun_29_2020	310.27 (0%)	308.15 (-0.2%)	305.6 (-0.4%)	303.58	302.27(0%)	304.46(1.47%)	298.93-304.61	-0.9(-0.9)	-1.4	-0.5%	-0.1%	0%	-0.1%	-0.86563961352657 Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.6%)	4	37	1	0	0.4	After Bottom	305.8(0.44%)	303.55-307.66	80.15	-5.8%-23.7%
23	Jun_26_2020	310.39 (0%)	308.47 (-0.2%)	306.83 (-0.6%)	306.12	303.18(0%)	300.05(-2.38%)	299.42-306.39	-1.6(-1.7)	-3.8	-0.6%	-0.2%	0%	-0.12%	-1.5925167202572 Growing Downtrend	Range(0.4%)	4	32	1	0	0.1	Downtrend	299.99(-0.02%)	299.15-302	128.83	-7.2%-21.9%
24	Jun_25_2020	310.69 (0.2%)	309.04 (-0.2%)	308.55 (-0.3%)	308.23	304.88(0%)	307.35(1.07%)	301.28-307.64	-0.6(-0.6)	-0.5	-0.9%	0.1%	0%	-0.14%	N/A	Range(-0.8%)	4	40	0.9	0	0.2	After Bottom	308.18(0.27%)	306.46-309.58	91.05	-4.9%-24.9%
25	Jun_24_2020	310.53 (0.2%)	308.47 (-0.2%)	309.44 (-0.5%)	309.56	309.06(0%)	304.09(-2.55%)	302.1-310.51	-0.9(-1)	-1.8	-0.7%	-0.3%	0%	-0.14%	-1.0034969205835 Growing Downtrend	Range(0.3%)	4	46	0.9	0	0	Correction	300.05(-1.33%)	299.26-303.18	131.2	-5.9%-25.1%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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