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     Thu. Apr. 2, 2020

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Jan. 20, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $251.8300 (2.31%) ($244.5900 - $252.6800) on Thu. Apr. 2, 2020.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  N/A
Trend Narrative  N/A
Average Daily Price Swing  $20.52 (8.07% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  3.46% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  0% (StdDev 3.46%)
Daily Moving Force  -1.4%
Trend   -0.06%
Latest Price  $251.8300(2.31%)
Forecasted Low Price  246.04(-2.3%)
Forecasted High Price  254.1(0.9%)
Direction of Next Movement  Lower(-2.4%)
Hourly Trend   -2.1% [$248.81(-5.33), $254.27(-1.33)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  5
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY declines -0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.6% a week (98% probability)
  DIA(98%)    IVW(98%)    VT(98%)    VUG(97%)    IVE(96%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will decline at least -0.4% in a week (66% probabilities).
  VXX(-77%)    VIXM(-73%)    TLT(-48%)    TIP(-6%)    BWX(-2%)  
Explanation   The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   -0.6 (options are cheap)
 
Market Trend Strength  -1% (StdDev 3.46%)
Hourly BBV   -0.5 ()
Intraday Trend   2.7%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $251.53(-0.12%)
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $254.37
5 Day Moving Average  $254.16(-0.92%)
10 Day Moving Average  $247.9(1.59%)
20 Day Moving Average  $254.37(-1%)
To recent high  -25.6%
To recent low  13%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  77%
Stage of the Market  Shape downtrend
 
One Year Target Price   $394.06 (56.48%)
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-1.1)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-0.2)
Risk Appetite   (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  12.7 k (Fri. Mar. 27, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  5.812 T (Wed. Apr. 1, 2020) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate  1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve   (0)
Credit Spread   (0)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 8.07% (three month std-dev: 3.46%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200502

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Apr_2_2020254.37 (-0.8%)247.9 (0.2%)254.16 (-0.7%) 254.27 248.81(0%)251.83(2.31%)244.59-252.68-0.1(-0.1)-0.5 -1.4%0%0%-0.06% N/A  Range(-1.4%)5452.300.5N/A 251.3(-0.21%)248.78-253.35175.39   -25.6%-13% 
2Apr_1_2020256.67 (-0.8%)246.78 (0.4%)256.03 (-0.1%) 255.6 254.14(0%)246.15(-4.5%)243.9-251.44-0.4(-0.4)-1.5 -1.4%-0.2%0%-0.02% Downtrend Reversal Downtrend Pop Range(0.7%)5512.700.1Rebound 250.58(1.8%)245.02-252.95188.12   -27.2%-10.4% 
3Mar_31_2020259.78 (-0.8%)246.23 (0%)256.16 (1.2%) 257.98 259.74(0%)257.75(-1.49%)256.22-263.33-0.1(-0.1)1.6 1.1%-0%0%-0.18% Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1.8%)5462.800.2Rebound 258.73(0.38%)255.28-260.22192.54   -23.8%-15.6% 
4Mar_30_2020261.72 (-1%)245.51 (-0.4%)253.24 (3.2%) 255.17 257.07(0%)261.65(3.25%)253.53-262.42-0(-0)5.9 1.4%0.4%0%-0.5% Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1.8%)44330-0.1Rebound 261.91(0.1%)256.3-264.32171.24   -22.7%-17.4% 
5Mar_27_2020263.86 (-1.2%)243.19 (-0.8%)245.5 (2.1%) 250.23 256.22(0%)253.42(-2.98%)251.05-260.81-0.3(-0.4)2.1 1.9%-0.6%0%-0.96% Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop Higher(2.8%)3463.10-0.4Rebound 255.02(0.63%)240.17-261.37222.37   -25.1%-13.7% 
 
6Mar_26_2020265.96 (-1.4%)244.39 (-1.4%)240.58 (1.8%) 242.45 253.27(0%)261.2(5.84%)249.05-262.8-0.2(-0.2)2.4 2.8%0.3%0%-1.3% Uptrend Reversal  Higher(3.1%)2423.10-0.1Rebound 259.27(-0.74%)241.84-266.73255.56   -22.8%-17.2% 
7Mar_25_2020267.65 (-1.6%)242.84 (-1.8%)236.44 (0.6%) 237.21 244.24(0%)246.79(1.5%)239.75-256.35-0.6(-0.7)0.8 2.9%-1%0%-1.74% Confirmed Rebound  Higher(1.9%)1373.40-0.4Downtrend 228.77(-7.3%)219.58-250.19297.64   -27.1%-10.7% 
8Mar_24_2020270.8 (-1.6%)245.25 (-2.2%)235.08 (-0.8%) 235.45 231.63(0%)243.15(9.06%)233.8-244.1-0.8(-0.9)0.7 0.2%-1.6%0%-1.98% Downtrend Pop  Range(-1.4%)0353.40-0.8Downtrend 221.58(-8.87%)210.58-247.22232.17   -28.1%-9.1% 
9Mar_23_2020274.23 (-1.6%)249.39 (-2.2%)237.01 (-1.4%) 235.04 230.19(0%)222.95(-2.56%)218.26-229.39-1.5(-1.7)-1.9 -3.1%-2%0%-2% -1.4745504190845 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-3.8%)0323.70-0.6Bottom 225.47(1.13%)206.56-238.08319.98   -34.1%-0
10Mar_20_2020279.27 (-1.6%)254.62 (-2.2%)240.39 (-3.3%) 241.29 239.27(0%)228.8(-4.87%)228.65-244.47-1.4(-1.7)-3.8 -1.2%-2.4%0%-2.04% -1.4669092277487 Growing Downtrend  Range(-1.2%)0323.60-1.2Bottom 229.3(0.22%)211.27-241.32341.68   -32.4%-0
 
11Mar_19_2020284.53 (-1.4%)261.39 (-2%)248.5 (-0.6%) 244.23 239.88(0%)240.51(0.21%)232.22-247.38-1.3(-1.5)-1.1 -1.4%-2.1%0%-1.8% -1.2938558960693 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-3.5%)0383.50-1.6Bottom 242.03(0.63%)225.28-253.2283.67   -28.9%-0.3
12Mar_18_2020289.35 (-1.4%)267.46 (-1.8%)250.02 (-2.7%) 248.42 243.32(0%)240(-5.06%)228.02-248.37-1.4(-1.7)-2 -2.1%-2.4%0%-1.74% -1.4939194089993 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-2%)1383.40-2.3Bottom 241.49(0.62%)225.18-252.35325.18   -29.1%-0.1
13Mar_17_2020294.32 (-1.4%)274.66 (-1.6%)256.89 (-2.7%) 252.43 248.58(0%)252.8(5.4%)237.07-256.17-1.3(-1.5)-1.5 -2.4%-1.7%0%-1.52% Downtrend Pop  Lower(-4.1%)2373.30-2.2Downtrend 235.53(-6.83%)225.75-258.33259.16   -25.3%-5.4% 
14Mar_16_2020298.55 (-1.2%)279.44 (-1.4%)264.01 (-2.5%) 259.48 253.52(0%)239.85(-10.94%)237.36-256.9-1.9(-2.1)-5.6 -2%-2.3%0%-1.36% -1.9919675892207 Growing Downtrend  Range(1.2%)3333.20-2.8Downtrend 225.96(-5.79%)216.69-247.57294.45   -29.1%-0
15Mar_13_2020303.59 (-1%)286.58 (-1.2%)270.89 (-2%) 267.55 256.27(0%)269.32(8.55%)249.58-271.08-1.2(-1.4)-0.4 -2.8%-1.1%0%-1.2% Downtrend Pop  Lower(-3.9%)3363.20-1.9Downtrend 255.37(-5.18%)247.27-274.28323.43   -20.4%-8.5% 
 
16Mar_12_2020307.02 (-1%)289.52 (-1.2%)276.52 (-3.8%) 272.69 265.45(0%)248.11(-9.57%)247.68-266.66-2.2(-2.4)-2.8 -4.4%-1.8%3.45%-1.18% Oversold  Higher(2%)3243.50-2.8Downtrend 233.92(-5.72%)224.48-255.99377.1   -26.7%-0
17Mar_11_2020311.68 (-0.8%)294.9 (-1.2%)287.39 (-2.6%) 282.94 278.83(0%)274.36(-4.87%)270.88-281.94-1.6(-1.8)-5.2 -1.5%-1.2%0%-1.02% -1.6300458953433 Growing Downtrend  Range(-0.3%)3283.50-2.2Downtrend 261.11(-4.83%)253.27-279.4254.11   -18.9%-0
18Mar_10_2020314.83 (-0.6%)298.71 (-1%)295.09 (-0.8%) 289.78 279.93(0%)288.42(5.17%)273.5-288.52-1.2(-1.4)-0.9 -2.1%-0.8%0%-0.9% Downtrend Pop  Lower(-2.9%)3303.40-1.9Downtrend 277.2(-3.89%)270.67-292.41275.46   -14.8%-5.2% 
19Mar_9_2020317.21 (-0.6%)301.13 (-1.2%)297.45 (-2.3%) 296.65 287.06(0%)274.23(-7.81%)273.45-284.19-2.1(-2.3)-2.3 -3.3%-1.4%1.4%-0.94% Oversold  Range(0.6%)3233.50-2.6Growing Downtrend 263.81(-3.8%)254.83-280.29305.32   -18.9%-0
20Mar_6_2020320.29 (-0.4%)306.07 (-1%)304.42 (0%) 302.95 299.63(0%)297.46(-1.65%)290.23-298.78-1.2(-1.4)-0.6 -1.3%-1%0%-0.8% -1.2674794228356 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-1.5%)3283.60-2.2Downtrend 287.17(-3.46%)281.18-301.16229.84   -12.1%-0
 
21Mar_5_2020322.19 (-0.4%)309.52 (-1%)304.43 (0.3%) 304.64 306.24(0%)302.46(-3.32%)300.01-308.47-1.1(-1.3)-0.1 0.4%-0.9%0%-0.8% Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop Higher(1.2%)3303.40-2Downtrend 292.45(-3.31%)286.77-305.67184.18   -10.6%-1.7% 
22Mar_4_2020323.77 (-0.4%)312.79 (-1%)303.44 (0.1%) 301.53 306.26(0%)312.86(4.2%)303.33-313.1-0.6(-0.7)2.4 0.6%-0.6%0%-0.84% Rebound  Range(0%)3333.50-1.6Downtrend 301.57(-3.61%)295.97-314.62175.48   -7.5%-5.2% 
23Mar_3_2020324.63 (-0.4%)315.1 (-1%)303.17 (-0.8%) 300.59 303.04(0%)300.24(-2.86%)297.57-313.84-1.5(-1.7)-0.8 0.6%-0.9%0%-0.84% Rebound  Higher(1.1%)3243.70-2.4Downtrend 288.35(-3.96%)281.67-303.89301.24   -11.3%-0.9
24Mar_2_2020325.97 (-0.4%)318.73 (-1%)305.65 (-0.9%) 302.91 296.79(0%)309.09(3.89%)294.46-309.16-1.1(-1.3)0.1 -0.8%-0.7%0%-0.78% Downtrend Pop  Lower(-1.5%)2293.60-2.1Growing Downtrend 299.48(-3.11%)292.26-311.58235.32   -8.6%-3.9% 
25Feb_28_2020326.73 (-0.4%)321.53 (-0.8%)308.32 (-2.3%) 306.67 298.14(0%)297.51(0%)285.54-297.89-2.1(-2.3)-1.6 -3.1%-1%0.8%-0.7% Oversold  Lower(-3.3%)3173.80-2.6Growing Downtrend 287.72(-3.29%)279.74-301.81358.11   -12.1%-0
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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