Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 2, 2020

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Jan. 20, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $251.8300 (2.31%) ($244.5900 - $252.6800) on Thu. Apr. 2, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   N/A
Trend Narrative   N/A
Average Daily Price Swing   $20.52 (8.07% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.46% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0% (StdDev 3.46%)
Daily Moving Force   -1.4%
Trend   -0.06%
Latest Price   $251.8300(2.31%)
Forecasted Low Price   246.04(-2.3%)
Forecasted High Price   254.1(0.9%)
Direction of Next Movement   Lower(-2.4%)
Hourly Trend -2.1% [$248.81(-5.33), $254.27(-1.33)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   5
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY decline at-0.6% a week (98% probability)
DIA(98%)    IVW(98%)    VT(98%)    VUG(97%)    IVE(96%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.4% in a week (66% probabilities).
VXX(-77%)    VIXM(-73%)    TLT(-48%)    TIP(-6%)    BWX(-2%)
Explanation The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 0

Relative Volatility -0.6 (options are cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1% (StdDev 3.46%)
Hourly BBV -0.5 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

Next Day Open Price   $251.53(-0.12%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Resistance Level   $254.37
5 Day Moving Average   $254.16(-0.92%)
10 Day Moving Average   $247.9(1.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $254.37(-1%)
To recent high   -25.6%
To recent low   13%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

Advance Ratio   77%
Stage of the Market   Shape downtrend

One Year Target Price    $394.06 (56.48%)

Short-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-1.1)
Mid-term volatility trend   Equity Bullish (-0.2)
Risk Appetite    (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   12.7 k (Fri. Mar. 27, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet   5.812 T (Wed. Apr. 1, 2020) Expansion
Fed Fund Rate   1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SPY price fluctuates within 8.07% (three month std-dev: 3.46% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200502

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Apr_2_2020	254.37 (-0.8%)	247.9 (0.2%)	254.16 (-0.7%)	254.27	248.81(0%)	251.83(2.31%)	244.59-252.68	-0.1(-0.1)	-0.5	-1.4%	0%	0%	-0.06%	N/A	Range(-1.4%)	5	45	2.3	0	0.5	N/A	251.3(-0.21%)	248.78-253.35	175.39	-25.6%-13%
2	Apr_1_2020	256.67 (-0.8%)	246.78 (0.4%)	256.03 (-0.1%)	255.6	254.14(0%)	246.15(-4.5%)	243.9-251.44	-0.4(-0.4)	-1.5	-1.4%	-0.2%	0%	-0.02%	Downtrend Reversal Downtrend Pop	Range(0.7%)	5	51	2.7	0	0.1	Rebound	250.58(1.8%)	245.02-252.95	188.12	-27.2%-10.4%
3	Mar_31_2020	259.78 (-0.8%)	246.23 (0%)	256.16 (1.2%)	257.98	259.74(0%)	257.75(-1.49%)	256.22-263.33	-0.1(-0.1)	1.6	1.1%	-0%	0%	-0.18%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1.8%)	5	46	2.8	0	0.2	Rebound	258.73(0.38%)	255.28-260.22	192.54	-23.8%-15.6%
4	Mar_30_2020	261.72 (-1%)	245.51 (-0.4%)	253.24 (3.2%)	255.17	257.07(0%)	261.65(3.25%)	253.53-262.42	-0(-0)	5.9	1.4%	0.4%	0%	-0.5%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1.8%)	4	43	3	0	-0.1	Rebound	261.91(0.1%)	256.3-264.32	171.24	-22.7%-17.4%
5	Mar_27_2020	263.86 (-1.2%)	243.19 (-0.8%)	245.5 (2.1%)	250.23	256.22(0%)	253.42(-2.98%)	251.05-260.81	-0.3(-0.4)	2.1	1.9%	-0.6%	0%	-0.96%	Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop	Higher(2.8%)	3	46	3.1	0	-0.4	Rebound	255.02(0.63%)	240.17-261.37	222.37	-25.1%-13.7%

6	Mar_26_2020	265.96 (-1.4%)	244.39 (-1.4%)	240.58 (1.8%)	242.45	253.27(0%)	261.2(5.84%)	249.05-262.8	-0.2(-0.2)	2.4	2.8%	0.3%	0%	-1.3%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(3.1%)	2	42	3.1	0	-0.1	Rebound	259.27(-0.74%)	241.84-266.73	255.56	-22.8%-17.2%
7	Mar_25_2020	267.65 (-1.6%)	242.84 (-1.8%)	236.44 (0.6%)	237.21	244.24(0%)	246.79(1.5%)	239.75-256.35	-0.6(-0.7)	0.8	2.9%	-1%	0%	-1.74%	Confirmed Rebound	Higher(1.9%)	1	37	3.4	0	-0.4	Downtrend	228.77(-7.3%)	219.58-250.19	297.64	-27.1%-10.7%
8	Mar_24_2020	270.8 (-1.6%)	245.25 (-2.2%)	235.08 (-0.8%)	235.45	231.63(0%)	243.15(9.06%)	233.8-244.1	-0.8(-0.9)	0.7	0.2%	-1.6%	0%	-1.98%	Downtrend Pop	Range(-1.4%)	0	35	3.4	0	-0.8	Downtrend	221.58(-8.87%)	210.58-247.22	232.17	-28.1%-9.1%
9	Mar_23_2020	274.23 (-1.6%)	249.39 (-2.2%)	237.01 (-1.4%)	235.04	230.19(0%)	222.95(-2.56%)	218.26-229.39	-1.5(-1.7)	-1.9	-3.1%	-2%	0%	-2%	-1.4745504190845 Growing Downtrend	Lower(-3.8%)	0	32	3.7	0	-0.6	Bottom	225.47(1.13%)	206.56-238.08	319.98	-34.1%-0%
10	Mar_20_2020	279.27 (-1.6%)	254.62 (-2.2%)	240.39 (-3.3%)	241.29	239.27(0%)	228.8(-4.87%)	228.65-244.47	-1.4(-1.7)	-3.8	-1.2%	-2.4%	0%	-2.04%	-1.4669092277487 Growing Downtrend	Range(-1.2%)	0	32	3.6	0	-1.2	Bottom	229.3(0.22%)	211.27-241.32	341.68	-32.4%-0%

11	Mar_19_2020	284.53 (-1.4%)	261.39 (-2%)	248.5 (-0.6%)	244.23	239.88(0%)	240.51(0.21%)	232.22-247.38	-1.3(-1.5)	-1.1	-1.4%	-2.1%	0%	-1.8%	-1.2938558960693 Growing Downtrend	Lower(-3.5%)	0	38	3.5	0	-1.6	Bottom	242.03(0.63%)	225.28-253.2	283.67	-28.9%-0.3%
12	Mar_18_2020	289.35 (-1.4%)	267.46 (-1.8%)	250.02 (-2.7%)	248.42	243.32(0%)	240(-5.06%)	228.02-248.37	-1.4(-1.7)	-2	-2.1%	-2.4%	0%	-1.74%	-1.4939194089993 Growing Downtrend	Lower(-2%)	1	38	3.4	0	-2.3	Bottom	241.49(0.62%)	225.18-252.35	325.18	-29.1%-0.1%
13	Mar_17_2020	294.32 (-1.4%)	274.66 (-1.6%)	256.89 (-2.7%)	252.43	248.58(0%)	252.8(5.4%)	237.07-256.17	-1.3(-1.5)	-1.5	-2.4%	-1.7%	0%	-1.52%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-4.1%)	2	37	3.3	0	-2.2	Downtrend	235.53(-6.83%)	225.75-258.33	259.16	-25.3%-5.4%
14	Mar_16_2020	298.55 (-1.2%)	279.44 (-1.4%)	264.01 (-2.5%)	259.48	253.52(0%)	239.85(-10.94%)	237.36-256.9	-1.9(-2.1)	-5.6	-2%	-2.3%	0%	-1.36%	-1.9919675892207 Growing Downtrend	Range(1.2%)	3	33	3.2	0	-2.8	Downtrend	225.96(-5.79%)	216.69-247.57	294.45	-29.1%-0%
15	Mar_13_2020	303.59 (-1%)	286.58 (-1.2%)	270.89 (-2%)	267.55	256.27(0%)	269.32(8.55%)	249.58-271.08	-1.2(-1.4)	-0.4	-2.8%	-1.1%	0%	-1.2%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-3.9%)	3	36	3.2	0	-1.9	Downtrend	255.37(-5.18%)	247.27-274.28	323.43	-20.4%-8.5%

16	Mar_12_2020	307.02 (-1%)	289.52 (-1.2%)	276.52 (-3.8%)	272.69	265.45(0%)	248.11(-9.57%)	247.68-266.66	-2.2(-2.4)	-2.8	-4.4%	-1.8%	3.45%	-1.18%	Oversold	Higher(2%)	3	24	3.5	0	-2.8	Downtrend	233.92(-5.72%)	224.48-255.99	377.1	-26.7%-0%
17	Mar_11_2020	311.68 (-0.8%)	294.9 (-1.2%)	287.39 (-2.6%)	282.94	278.83(0%)	274.36(-4.87%)	270.88-281.94	-1.6(-1.8)	-5.2	-1.5%	-1.2%	0%	-1.02%	-1.6300458953433 Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	3	28	3.5	0	-2.2	Downtrend	261.11(-4.83%)	253.27-279.4	254.11	-18.9%-0%
18	Mar_10_2020	314.83 (-0.6%)	298.71 (-1%)	295.09 (-0.8%)	289.78	279.93(0%)	288.42(5.17%)	273.5-288.52	-1.2(-1.4)	-0.9	-2.1%	-0.8%	0%	-0.9%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-2.9%)	3	30	3.4	0	-1.9	Downtrend	277.2(-3.89%)	270.67-292.41	275.46	-14.8%-5.2%
19	Mar_9_2020	317.21 (-0.6%)	301.13 (-1.2%)	297.45 (-2.3%)	296.65	287.06(0%)	274.23(-7.81%)	273.45-284.19	-2.1(-2.3)	-2.3	-3.3%	-1.4%	1.4%	-0.94%	Oversold	Range(0.6%)	3	23	3.5	0	-2.6	Growing Downtrend	263.81(-3.8%)	254.83-280.29	305.32	-18.9%-0%
20	Mar_6_2020	320.29 (-0.4%)	306.07 (-1%)	304.42 (0%)	302.95	299.63(0%)	297.46(-1.65%)	290.23-298.78	-1.2(-1.4)	-0.6	-1.3%	-1%	0%	-0.8%	-1.2674794228356 Growing Downtrend	Lower(-1.5%)	3	28	3.6	0	-2.2	Downtrend	287.17(-3.46%)	281.18-301.16	229.84	-12.1%-0%

21	Mar_5_2020	322.19 (-0.4%)	309.52 (-1%)	304.43 (0.3%)	304.64	306.24(0%)	302.46(-3.32%)	300.01-308.47	-1.1(-1.3)	-0.1	0.4%	-0.9%	0%	-0.8%	Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop	Higher(1.2%)	3	30	3.4	0	-2	Downtrend	292.45(-3.31%)	286.77-305.67	184.18	-10.6%-1.7%
22	Mar_4_2020	323.77 (-0.4%)	312.79 (-1%)	303.44 (0.1%)	301.53	306.26(0%)	312.86(4.2%)	303.33-313.1	-0.6(-0.7)	2.4	0.6%	-0.6%	0%	-0.84%	Rebound	Range(0%)	3	33	3.5	0	-1.6	Downtrend	301.57(-3.61%)	295.97-314.62	175.48	-7.5%-5.2%
23	Mar_3_2020	324.63 (-0.4%)	315.1 (-1%)	303.17 (-0.8%)	300.59	303.04(0%)	300.24(-2.86%)	297.57-313.84	-1.5(-1.7)	-0.8	0.6%	-0.9%	0%	-0.84%	Rebound	Higher(1.1%)	3	24	3.7	0	-2.4	Downtrend	288.35(-3.96%)	281.67-303.89	301.24	-11.3%-0.9%
24	Mar_2_2020	325.97 (-0.4%)	318.73 (-1%)	305.65 (-0.9%)	302.91	296.79(0%)	309.09(3.89%)	294.46-309.16	-1.1(-1.3)	0.1	-0.8%	-0.7%	0%	-0.78%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-1.5%)	2	29	3.6	0	-2.1	Growing Downtrend	299.48(-3.11%)	292.26-311.58	235.32	-8.6%-3.9%
25	Feb_28_2020	326.73 (-0.4%)	321.53 (-0.8%)	308.32 (-2.3%)	306.67	298.14(0%)	297.51(0%)	285.54-297.89	-2.1(-2.3)	-1.6	-3.1%	-1%	0.8%	-0.7%	Oversold	Lower(-3.3%)	3	17	3.8	0	-2.6	Growing Downtrend	287.72(-3.29%)	279.74-301.81	358.11	-12.1%-0%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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