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     Wed. Feb. 19, 2020

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Jan. 20, 2021)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)

SPY latest price $338.3400 (0.48%) ($337.4800 - $339.0800) on Wed. Feb. 19, 2020.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative  Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing  $4.98 (1.5% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  0.61% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  0.2% (StdDev 0.61%)
Daily Moving Force  0.2%
Correction Force  Weak (0%)
Trend   0.28%
Latest Price  $338.3400(0.48%)
Forecasted Low Price  337.66(-0.2%)
Forecasted High Price  340.37(0.6%)
Direction of Next Movement  Higher(0.4%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction  0.9% (335.34)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  1.1%
Hourly Trend   0.2% [$337.51(0.73), $337.34(0.38)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  9
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SPY advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (98% probability)
  DIA(98%)    IVW(98%)    VT(98%)    IVE(96%)    IWD(96%)  
Factors Impacting SPY price  SPY will advance at least -0% in a week (62% probabilities).
  VXX(-76%)    VIXM(-73%)    TLT(-47%)    GBTC(-13%)    IGOV(-11%)  
Explanation   The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY 0
 
Relative Volatility   2.4 (options are extremely expensive)
 
Market Trend Strength  0.2% (StdDev 0.61%)
Hourly BBV   0.8 ()
Intraday Trend   0.2%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $338.27(-0.02%)
Support Level  $331.61
5 Day Moving Average  $337.43(0.27%)
10 Day Moving Average  $335.73(0.78%)
20 Day Moving Average  $331.61(2.03%)
To recent high  0%
To recent low  9.3%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
Advance Ratio  61%
Stage of the Market  Normal Strong Uptrend
 
Average Volume  54.52 million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)  0
One Month Target Price  > $338.34
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price  < $328.02
One Year Target Price   $436.29 (28.95%)
 
Short-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-1.6)
Mid-term volatility trend  Equity Bullish (-1.1)
Risk Appetite   (0)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions  34.8 k (Fri. Feb. 14, 2020) Decrease
Fed Balance Sheet  4.172 T (Wed. Feb. 19, 2020) Reduction
Fed Fund Rate  1.58% (Wed. Feb. 12, 2020) No Change
Yield Curve   (0)
Credit Spread   (0)
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -3.2% away from the target price of 338.34.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.5% (three month std-dev: 0.61%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200319

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Feb_19_2020331.61 (0.2%)335.73 (0.4%)337.43 (0.2%) 337.34 337.51(0%)338.34(0.48%)337.48-339.081.2(1.4)0.8 0.2%0.2%0%0.28% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.4%)9692.501.4Uptrend 341.18(0.84%)337.2-342.9149.13   0%-9.3% 
2Feb_18_2020331.22 (0.2%)334.83 (0.4%)336.81 (0.1%) 336.96 336.78(0%)336.73(-0.26%)335.21-337.671(1.2)0.4 %0.3%0%0.28% Uptrend  Higher(0.4%)9672.301.1Uptrend 339.46(0.81%)335.77-341.0557.11   -0.3%-8.8% 
3Feb_14_2020330.95 (0.2%)333.65 (0.4%)336.4 (0.3%) 336.83 337.17(0%)337.6(0.16%)336.2-337.731.2(1.5)6.2 0.2%0.4%0%0.28% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)9722.300.9Growing Uptrend 340.91(0.98%)336.56-34264.41   0%-9.1% 
4Feb_13_2020330.57 (0.2%)332.13 (0.2%)335.32 (0.2%) 335.91 337.14(0%)337.06(-0.11%)335.56-338.111.4(1.5)2.9 0.2%0.2%0%0.24% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)8602.200.6Growing Uptrend 339.42(0.7%)335.86-340.3353.31   -0.1%-9% 
5Feb_12_2020330.1 (0.2%)331.17 (0.2%)334.71 (0.3%) 334.77 336.48(0%)337.42(0.64%)336.43-337.651.6(1.8)1.8 0.4%0.3%0%0.2% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.7%)855200.9Growing Uptrend 339.48(0.61%)336.19-340.2942.89   0%-9.2% 
 
6Feb_11_2020329.57 (0.2%)330.05 (0.2%)333.8 (0.4%) 333.94 334.67(0%)335.26(0.17%)334.75-337.021.4(1.6)1.4 0.4%0.2%0%0.16% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.6%)8541.90-0.1Growing Uptrend 336.84(0.47%)334.24-337.4954.68   0%-8.7% 
7Feb_10_2020329.18 (0.2%)329.18 (0.2%)332.56 (0.6%) 333 333.07(0%)334.68(0.75%)331.19-334.751.3(1.6)6.9 0.2%0.3%0%0.12% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)7531.70-0.1Uptrend 335.65(0.29%)333.9-336.4242.01   0%-8.5% 
8Feb_7_2020328.72 (0%)328.05 (0%)330.44 (0.6%) 331.98 333.22(0%)332.2(-0.53%)331.6-333.991(1.1)3.3 0.4%0.1%0%0.04% N/A  Higher(0.8%)6491.70-0.6N/A 332.1(-0.03%)330.47-333.4463.32   -0.5%-7.8% 
9Feb_6_2020328.43 (0%)327.64 (-0%)328.35 (0.4%) 329.95 332.93(0%)333.98(0.34%)332.8-334.191.6(1.7)3.3 0.6%0.1%0%-0.04% N/A  Higher(0.7%)5531.60-0.5N/A 332.68(-0.39%)331.07-333.9848.43   0%-8.8% 
10Feb_5_2020327.94 (0%)327.3 (-0.2%)327.09 (0.4%) 327.32 330.74(0%)332.86(1.15%)330.67-333.091.5(1.6)2 0.8%0.1%0%-0.06% Uptrend Reversal  Higher(0.9%)4561.60-0.6Downtrend 332.39(-0.14%)332.55-332.0164.55   0%-8.4% 
 
11Feb_4_2020327.44 (0%)327.04 (-0.2%)325.84 (0.1%) 325.66 326.97(0%)329.06(1.52%)327.72-330.010.5(0.5)1 0.5%-0%0%-0.08% Uptrend Reversal  Higher(0.5%)4531.60-1.5Downtrend 328.53(-0.16%)328.46-328.7660.94   -0.9%-7.2% 
12Feb_3_2020327.18 (0%)327.2 (-0.2%)325.41 (0%) 325.21 323.91(0%)324.12(0.74%)323.22-326.16-0.8(-1)-1.1 -0.1%-0.2%0%-0.08% -0.84205436893204 Growing Downtrend  Lower(-0.3%)4441.70-1.7Correction 321.53(-0.8%)321.06-323.3568.79   -2.4%-5.6% 
13Jan_31_2020327.13 (0%)327.97 (-0.2%)325.28 (-0.4%) 325.79 324.34(0%)321.73(-1.82%)320.73-327.17-1.5(-1.7)-2 -0.4%-0.2%0%-0.06% -1.544380625 Growing Downtrend  Higher(0.3%)5461.80-2.8Correction 319.06(-0.83%)318.58-320.94113.41   -3.1%-6.1% 
14Jan_30_2020327.33 (0%)328.94 (-0%)326.69 (-0.3%) 326.09 326.51(0%)327.68(0.32%)323.54-327.910.1(0.1)0.4 -0.3%0%0%-0% Correction  Lower(-0.3%)6541.80-1Correction 327.45(-0.07%)327.38-327.5374.93   -1.3%-8% 
15Jan_29_2020327.07 (0%)329.02 (0%)327.5 (-0.3%) 327.12 327.23(0%)326.62(-0.08%)326.4-328.63-0.1(-0.1)-1 0.1%-0%0%0.04% Correction  Range(0.1%)6571.90-1.2Uptrend Consolidation 326.69(0.02%)326.62-326.8353.2   -1.6%-7.7% 
 
16Jan_28_2020326.82 (0%)329.15 (0%)328.44 (-0.3%) 327.95 325.67(0%)326.89(1.05%)324.55-327.850(0)-0.9 -0.4%-0%0%0.08% Correction  Lower(-0.4%)66120-1.5Uptrend Consolidation 326.92(0.01%)326.72-327.5563.3   -1.5%-7.8% 
17Jan_27_2020326.64 (0.2%)329.3 (0.2%)329.33 (-0.5%) 329.23 327.02(0%)323.5(-1.6%)322.66-325.12-0.8(-0.9)-1.9 -0.8%-0.1%0%0.12% Downtrend Reversal  Range(-0.1%)7532.20-3.2Uptrend Consolidation 324.41(0.28%)324.38-324.4483.54   -2.5%-6.7% 
18Jan_24_2020326.65 (0.2%)329.62 (0.2%)331.02 (-0.1%) 330.99 330.22(0%)328.77(-0.89%)327.36-332.530.5(0.6)-1.6 -0.3%0.1%0%0.2% Downtrend Reversal  Range(0.2%)8702.60-1.1After Top 330.81(0.62%)327.69-333.3887.17   -1%-9.5% 
19Jan_23_2020326.29 (0.2%)329.45 (0.2%)331.45 (0.2%) 331.5 331.43(0%)331.72(0.11%)329.41-331.921.3(1.5)1.1 %0.2%0%0.22% Growing Uptrend  Range(0.2%)9682.701.2Uptrend 334.31(0.78%)330.79-335.7951.76   -0.1%-10.6% 
20Jan_22_2020325.75 (0.2%)328.74 (0.2%)330.74 (0.2%) 331.3 331.76(0%)331.34(0.01%)331.17-332.951.4(1.6)0.8 0.2%0.2%0%0.22% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.4%)10732.600.6Uptrend 333.79(0.74%)330.36-335.2648.56   -0.2%-10.8% 
 
21Jan_21_2020325.21 (0.2%)327.9 (0.2%)329.96 (0.2%) 330.33 331.57(0%)331.3(-0.2%)330.82-332.181.6(1.8)1.5 0.2%0.2%0%0.2% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)9742.500.9Uptrend 333.42(0.64%)330.26-334.7777.18   -0.2%-10.8% 
22Jan_17_2020324.68 (0.2%)327.13 (0.2%)329.29 (0.4%) 329.34 330.78(0%)331.95(0.31%)331.07-332.181.9(2.2)2.7 0.4%0.3%0%0.2% Overbought  Higher(0.7%)9692.401.6Breakout 333.94(0.6%)330.78-335.396.51   0%-11.4% 
23Jan_16_2020324.04 (0.2%)326.17 (0.2%)328.04 (0.3%) 328.34 329.19(0%)330.92(0.83%)329.45-330.922.2(2.4)3.4 0.3%0.2%-0.3%0.16% Overbought  Lower(-0.4%)9672.101.7Overbought 328.9(-0.61%)325.9-333.4351.81   0%-11.1% 
24Jan_15_2020323.46 (0.2%)325.51 (0.2%)327.19 (0.2%) 327.45 328.02(0%)328.19(0.23%)327.26-329.021.6(1.8)2 0.2%0.2%0%0.16% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.4%)9671.901.8Growing Uptrend 329.8(0.49%)327.4-330.4270.37   0%-10.1% 
25Jan_14_2020323.02 (0.2%)324.88 (0.2%)326.44 (0.3%) 326.95 327.49(0%)327.45(-0.15%)326.84-328.621.5(1.8)1.8 0.2%0.2%0%0.16% Growing Uptrend  Higher(0.5%)8661.802.3Growing Uptrend 328.92(0.45%)326.76-329.4562.05   -0.2%-10.6% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRSIScaleRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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