Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Apr. 19, 2024

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 19, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $495.1600 (-0.87%) ($493.8600 - $500.4550) on Fri. Apr. 19, 2024.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.73% (three month average)
RSI   23
Latest Price   $495.1600(-0.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from growth to value for large cap. Rotation from growth to value for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWO(91%)    XBI(90%)    QQQ(88%)    IVW(87%)    IWM(76%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.365% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-81%)    UUP(-43%)    VIXM(-39%)    TLT(12%)    XLE(21%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.365% (StdDev 0.73%)
Hourly BBV -2 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

Resistance Level   $513.64
5 Day Moving Average   $500.64(-1.09%)
10 Day Moving Average   $507.91(-2.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $513.64(-3.6%)
To recent high   -5.4%
To recent low   2.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.65% (three month std-dev: 0.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.42%(56%) Average negative next day return: -1.3%(44%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 2.23%(52%) Average negative next three day return: -1.63%(48%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 2.63%(62%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.26%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart Hourly Chart 15 Minute Chart

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_19_2024	493.69	513.64	507.91	500.64	501.39	499.13	495.16(-0.87%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-328	-30	-342	-284	102.09	59%	0.08	-50.9	0.73%	-2	-2.2	23	-2.3
2	Apr_18_2024	493.29	515.06	510.29	503.78	504.48	502.02	499.52(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-241	-30	-246	-226	74.35	62%	0.1	-43.1	0.74%	-1.5	-2.1	25	-1.6
3	Apr_17_2024	492.82	516.17	511.76	507.47	507.36	503.65	500.55(-0.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-344	-50	-372	-260	75.78	62%	0.1	-29.9	0.74%	-1.2	-2.4	25	-2
4	Apr_16_2024	492.34	517.03	513.72	510.19	510.69	506.94	503.53(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-356	-50	-393	-246	73.22	62%	0.1	-23.8	0.74%	-0.9	-2.5	35	-2.2
5	Apr_15_2024	491.83	517.6	515.33	513.35	513.1	511.07	504.45(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-300	-30	-334	-198	91.83	62%	0.1	-8	0.74%	-2.1	-2.9	35	-3

6	Apr_12_2024	491.32	517.99	517.16	516.2	515.39	514.43	510.84(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-115	-20	-123	-89	92.46	65%	0.04	9.3	0.73%	-1.7	-1.8	38	-2.8
7	Apr_11_2024	491.12	518.25	518.41	517.72	517	515.14	518(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-81	-30	-87	-62	69.97	69%	0.14	21.7	0.7%	1.9	-0.1	44	1
8	Apr_10_2024	490.45	518.16	518.89	516.73	517.13	516.35	514.12(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-205	-10	-231	-126	82.49	68%	0.13	22.9	0.7%	-1	-1.1	41	-0.4
9	Apr_9_2024	489.81	518.32	519.42	517.79	518.21	518.85	519.32(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	51	10	66	6	68.02	71%	0.14	44.1	0.69%	-0.7	0.3	57	-0.3
10	Apr_8_2024	489.13	517.95	519.46	517.69	518.27	517.91	518.72(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	-0	30	2	48.35	73%	0.15	39.2	0.69%	0.1	0.2	61	-0.3

11	Apr_5_2024	488.41	517.63	519.7	518.38	518.05	517.57	518.43(1.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-118	-10	-142	-44	74.48	73%	0.15	41	0.71%	-0.4	0.2	64	-1.1
12	Apr_4_2024	487.69	517.46	520.07	519.31	519.55	518.62	513.07(-1.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-43	-10	-60	9	96.64	72%	0.14	54.4	0.7%	-2.2	-1.1	50	-0.4
13	Apr_3_2024	487.03	517.35	520.9	521.33	520.83	518.54	519.41(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-133	-30	-174	-9	58.99	73%	0.15	69.9	0.68%	-0.3	0.5	56	0.4
14	Apr_2_2024	486.28	516.78	520.6	521.21	521.57	520.48	518.84(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-167	-10	-213	-27	74.11	73%	0.17	62.4	0.69%	-1	0.4	54	0.3
15	Apr_1_2024	485.46	516.46	520.09	521.4	522.03	523.13	522.16(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	72	20	66	91	62.38	73%	0.29	69.1	0.69%	-0.1	1.2	66	0.7

16	Mar_28_2024	484.07	515.98	518.93	521.21	521.33	522.65	523.07(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	137	20	143	118	96.18	73%	0.19	73.4	0.69%	1.8	1.5	67	1.1
17	Mar_27_2024	483.17	515.23	518.11	521.03	520.91	520.94	523.17(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	65	-0	59	84	82.81	73%	0.18	73.7	0.69%	1.1	1.6	60	1.6
18	Mar_26_2024	482.28	514.38	517.34	520.49	521.16	520.02	518.81(-0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-15	-10	-38	53	65.32	72%	0.18	81.7	0.68%	-1.5	0.9	63	1.4
19	Mar_25_2024	481.41	513.79	517.12	519.87	520.66	520.88	519.77(-0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-4	10	-28	67	48.39	72%	0.19	85.4	0.68%	-1.2	1.2	67	1.8
20	Mar_22_2024	480.52	513.11	516.3	518.49	519.09	522.31	521.21(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	217	50	236	158	79.02	72%	0.2	86.2	0.69%	0.3	1.7	59	1.8

21	Mar_21_2024	479.58	512.42	515.33	516.22	517.08	520.44	522.2(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	425	50	487	237	60.18	73%	0.22	85.2	0.68%	1.1	2.2	60	1.9
22	Mar_20_2024	478.54	511.65	514.51	514.77	513.85	515.87	520.48(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	172	20	191	116	69.25	69%	0.22	78.4	0.69%	2.8	1.8	63	1.6
23	Mar_19_2024	477.48	510.51	513.41	513.86	513.16	513.72	515.71(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	99	0	106	79	60.7	68%	0.22	72.1	0.71%	1.1	1	62	1.6
24	Mar_18_2024	476.44	509.6	512.59	514.08	513.77	511.84	512.86(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-42	-30	-61	15	88.63	68%	0.23	70.9	0.71%	0.5	0.6	58	1.3
25	Mar_15_2024	475.37	508.96	512.53	513.76	514	512.59	509.83(-0.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-182	-20	-228	-45	107.27	68%		64.5	0.71%	-1.3	0.2	57	1.2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD