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     Fri. Sep. 18, 2020



Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Sep. 18, 2020)

(Semiconductor sector etf)

SMH latest price $168.4050 (-1.33%) ($166.2410 - $172.1800) on Fri. Sep. 18, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  SMH advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SMH declines -1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SMH decline at-1.7% a week (88% probability)
  IVW(85%)    QQQ(85%)    VUG(85%)    XLK(85%)    IWF(84%)  
Factors Impacting SMH price  SMH will advance at least 0.1% in a week (39% probabilities).
  VXX(-49%)    VIXM(-41%)    UUP(-40%)    SHY(-13%)    BJK(-11%)  
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   1.1
 
Relative Volatility   1.1 (options are expensive)
 
Hourly Trend   -0.99% [$169.24(-1.57), $170.94(-0.25)]
Last Hour Trend   0.01% [$167.93, $167.91]


SMH Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  38%
Bullish Price Move  1.8%
Bearish Probability  63%
Bearish Price Move  -1.8%
Recommended Position Size  -14%
Latest Price  $168.4050
Next Day Open Price  $168.44(0.02%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $167.87(-0.32%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $167.3 - $169.18
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $172.04
5 Day Moving Average  $170.7(-1.34%)
10 Day Moving Average  $169.02(-0.36%)
20 Day Moving Average  $172.04(-2.11%)
To recent high  -8.3%
To recent low  14.1%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
One Year Target Price   $188.02 (11.65%)
 


  
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.62% (three month std-dev: 1.78%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SMH price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   Hourly Chart   15 Minute Chart

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVT(RV,IV)VIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Sep_18_2020-8.3%-14.1% -0.1%,-0(0)-1.8%,-0.7(0.1)0.3%,0.1-1.20.01%-1.8%-0.81.11.1(2.62%,NAN%)2.12.07   168.41(-1.33%)166.24-172.18Downtrend 167.87(-0.32%)167.31-169.1843
2Sep_17_2020-7.1%-15.6% -0.2%,-0.1(0.1)-1.9%,-0.7(-0)0.5%,0.2-0.30.06%-1.5%-0.30.91.1(2.59%,1.88%)2.12.19   170.68(-0.2%)166.21-171.12Downtrend 170(-0.4%)169.57-171.0149
3Sep_16_2020-6.9%-15.8% -0.4%,-0.2(-0)-1.8%,-0.7(-0)0.3%,0.11.5-0.14%-0.9%-0.30.31.2(2.59%,1.8%)1.41.93   171.03(-1.43%)170.97-174.74Downtrend 170.35(-0.4%)169.92-171.3646
4Sep_15_2020-5.5%-17.6% -0.4%,-0.1(0.1)-1.8%,-0.7(0.2)1.2%,0.51.5-0.17%-0.5%0.31.21.3(2.58%,1.62%)0.83.85   173.51(2.13%)171.77-174.48Downtrend Consolidation 172.95(-0.32%)173.06-172.9149
5Sep_14_2020-7.5%-15.1% -0.6%,-0.2(-0)-2.3%,-0.9(-0.1)-0.2%,-0.100.01%-0.4%-0.5-0.21.3(2.58%,1.73%)0.82.27   169.89(2.26%)168.53-171.01Growing Downtrend 168.92(-0.57%)168.14-170.3349
 
6Sep_11_2020-9.6%-15.4% -0.5%,-0.2(-0.1)-2%,-0.8(-0.2)-0.9%,-0.300.13%-0.1%-1.4-1.11.2(2.57%,1.83%)0.12.39   166.13(-0.13%)164.47-169.37Growing Downtrend 165.33(-0.48%)164.42-167.347
7Sep_10_2020-9.4%-15.6% -0.3%,-0.1(-0.2)-1.4%,-0.6(-0.5)-2%,-0.8-0-0.52%0.2%-1.5-1.10.9(2.44%,2.04%)-0.72.92   166.35(-1.29%)165.4-171.31Downtrend 165.83(-0.31%)165.13-167.4749
8Sep_9_2020-8.3%-17.1% 0.3%,0.1(-0.1)-0%,-0(-0.3)-1.2%,-0.5-2.4-0.07%0.5%-1.1-1.60.6(2.29%,1.83%)-0.72.33   168.52(3%)165.99-169.77Relative Oversold 169.67(0.68%)168.23-170.8449
9Sep_8_2020-10.9%-13.7% 0.5%,0.2(-0.2)0.8%,0.3(-0.3)-1.4%,-0.6-4.2-0.66%0.9%-2.3-2.70.7(2.34%,2.16%)-1.23.99   163.61(-4.56%)163.58-168.62Uptrend Dip 165.1(0.91%)163.42-165.5342
10Sep_4_2020-6.7%-19.1% 0.9%,0.4(-0.1)1.5%,0.7(-0.2)-0.5%,-0.2-3.30.63%1.3%-0.5-1.1-0.1(2.05%,1.99%)-1.14.92   171.43(-1.27%)165.5-174.72Uptrend Dip 172.97(0.9%)172.13-173.1949
 
11Sep_3_2020-5.5%-20.6% 1.1%,0.6(-0)1.9%,0.9(0)0.1%,00.9-0.01%1.4%0.1-0.8-0.1(2.04%,1.94%)-2.46.88   173.63(-5.47%)172.37-180.82Uptrend 174.48(0.49%)173.54-174.8756
12Sep_2_20200%-28% 1.2%,0.6(0)1.8%,0.9(0.3)0.9%,0.52.10.27%1.2%31.1-0.1(2.05%,1.89%)0.23.96   183.68(2.7%)179.38-184.61Growing Uptrend 184.6(0.5%)181.51-185.3874
13Sep_1_20200%-26.9% 1.2%,0.8(-0.1)1.2%,0.8(-0)0.5%,0.31.50%0.8%2.50-1.3(1.51%,1.48%)01.83   178.85(1.75%)175.88-178.9Overbought 175.93(-1.63%)173.46-179.6662
14Aug_31_20200%-24.8% 1.3%,1(0)1.2%,0.9(0)0.4%,0.30.6-0.07%0.6%1.7-0.7-1.9(1.29%,1.38%)0.11.73   175.78(0%)173.9-176.64Uptrend 176.11(0.19%)175.04-176.5768
15Aug_28_20200%-27.2% 1.3%,0.9(-0)1.2%,0.9(0.2)0.6%,0.4-0.30.21%0.7%1.7-1.1-2(1.36%,1.55%)0.81.35   175.78(1.73%)172.85-175.8Growing Uptrend 176.29(0.29%)175-176.6261
 
16Aug_27_2020-1.5%-25.1% 1.3%,1(-0.1)1%,0.7(0.2)0.4%,0.30.90.24%0.6%0.7-2.2-2.4(1.33%,1.44%)0.73.12   172.79(-1.55%)171.84-176.39Growing Uptrend 173.29(0.29%)172.5-173.4857
17Aug_26_20200%-27% 1.4%,1(0.1)0.7%,0.5(0.2)0.5%,0.41.8-0.08%0.7%1.8-0.8-2.4(1.47%,1.26%)1.31.42   175.51(0.62%)174.35-175.93Growing Uptrend 175.84(0.19%)174.61-176.1557
18Aug_25_20200%-26.3% 1.3%,0.8(0.1)0.5%,0.3(0.2)0.3%,0.21.80.09%0.8%1.3-0.4-2(1.73%,1.47%)1.61.3   174.42(1.14%)172.8-174.46Growing Uptrend 174.75(0.19%)173.67-175.0254
19Aug_24_2020-0.4%-24.8% 1.2%,0.7(-0.1)0.1%,0.1(-0)-0.1%,-0.10.6-0.05%0.7%0.9-1-2.4(1.7%,1.38%)1.71.3   172.45(0.89%)171.21-173.39N/A 172(-0.26%)170.91-172.8951
20Aug_21_2020-1.3%-24.2% 1.3%,0.6(0)0.2%,0.1(-0.1)0%,0-0.90.02%0.7%0.4-0.7-1.3(2.08%,1.43%)1.72.08   170.93(0.81%)169.02-170.95N/A 171.02(0.05%)170.13-171.7355
 
21Aug_20_2020-2.1%-23.2% 1.3%,0.6(-0)0.4%,0.2(-0.1)-0.1%,-0.1-0.90.08%1%0.1-1.1-0.7(2.3%,1.36%)1.52.91   169.55(-0.89%)168.23-170.22Uptrend Consolidation 169.5(-0.03%)169.36-169.9459
22Aug_19_2020-1.2%-25.2% 1.4%,0.6(-0.1)0.7%,0.3(-0.2)-0.2%,-0.1-0-0.27%1.3%0.6-0.1-0.4(2.37%,1.51%)1.62.36   171.07(-0.63%)170.64-172.59Uptrend Consolidation 170.45(-0.36%)170.06-171.6159
23Aug_18_2020-0.6%-26% 1.6%,0.7(0)1.1%,0.5(-0.1)0.6%,0.20.6-0.03%1.6%0.90-0.2(2.44%,1.38%)1.61.51   172.15(-0.6%)171.64-174.33Uptrend 172.96(0.47%)171.41-173.6265
24Aug_17_20200%-26.8% 1.5%,0.6(-0)1.4%,0.6(0)0.4%,0.20.3-0.08%1.8%1.30.7-0.3(2.43%,1.42%)1.81.4   173.19(1.42%)172.24-174.11Uptrend 173.9(0.41%)172.14-174.6673
25Aug_14_2020-1%-30.1% 1.6%,0.6(0)1.3%,0.5(-0.1)0.1%,0.10.6-0.07%1.9%0.80.1-0.1(2.47%,1.43%)1.81.63   170.77(0.02%)170.28-172.86Uptrend Consolidation 170.04(-0.43%)169.51-171.6159
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVTVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
 
 
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