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     Thu. Feb. 25, 2021

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Thu. Feb. 25, 2021)

(Semiconductor sector etf)

SMH latest price $236.8800 (-5.12%) ($236.8800 - $236.8800) on Thu. Feb. 25, 2021.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Pattern  Downtrend Reversal
Trend Narrative  Uptrend Consolidation
Average Daily Price Swing  $8.01 (3.29% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  1.9% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force  -0.2% (StdDev 1.9%)
Daily Moving Force  -1.3%
Rebound Strength  None(0%)
Trend   0.16%
Trend Strength  2.3%
RSI   54
Momentum  1.7
Latest Price  $236.8800(-5.12%)
Forecasted Low Price  235.46(-0.6%)
Forecasted High Price  240.67(1.6%)
Direction of Next Movement  Range(0.8%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Rebound  5.9% ((250.82))
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  6%
Hourly Trend   -1.1% [$243.28(-2.68), $243.36(-4.13)]
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  4
Intraday Reversal Probability  There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to upside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend  SMH declines -0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  SMH advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support SMH decline at-0.4% a week (91% probability)
  SNSR(92%)    IDRV(91%)    VFMO(87%)    QQQ(86%)    XLK(86%)  
Factors Impacting SMH price  SMH will advance at least 0.1% in a week (54% probabilities).
  VXX(-75%)    VIXM(-61%)    XRT(-37%)    ROBT(-27%)    UUP(-15%)  
Explanation   The decline is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   -0.5
 
Relative Volatility   0.4 (options are faily valued)
 
Market Trend Strength  -0.5% (StdDev 1.9%)
Hourly BBV   -2.4 ()
Intraday Trend   0%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $236.03(-0.36%)
Inflection Point  Yes
5 Day Moving Average  $245.37(-3.46%)
10 Day Moving Average  $248.61(-4.72%)
20 Day Moving Average  $243.12(-2.57%)
To recent high  -7.5%
To recent low  16.4%
Market Cap  $N/A
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
One Year Target Price   $211.11 (-10.88%)
 
 



$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. SMH price fluctuates within 3.29% (three month std-dev: 1.9%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. SMH price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   Hourly Chart   15 Minute Chart

iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
1Feb_25_2021243.12 (0.2%)248.61 (0.2%)245.37 (-0.9%) 243.36 243.28(0%)236.88(-5.12%)236.88-236.880.2(-0.8)-2.4 -1.3%-0.2%0%0.16%2.3%541.7 Downtrend Reversal  Higher(1.1%)4-0.50.5Uptrend Consolidation 238.47(0.67%)238.83-237.45.64   -7.5%-16.4% 
2Feb_24_2021242.69 (0.2%)249.4 (0.4%)247.71 (-0.2%) 247.49 245.96(0%)249.66(3.06%)249.66-249.70.6(0.8)0.6 0.5%0.3%0%0.28%2.8%662 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.8%)50.71.1Uptrend 251.13(0.59%)248.31-252.364.33   -2.5%-22.6% 
3Feb_23_2021242.08 (0.2%)248.7 (0.4%)248.07 (-1.1%) 247.22 243.45(0%)242.26(-0.98%)242.26-242.260.7(0)-1.2 -1.6%-0%0%0.32%2.7%562.1 Downtrend Reversal  Lower(-1.1%)6-0.11.5Uptrend Consolidation 242.36(0.04%)241.83-243.984.41   -5.4%-19.2% 
4Feb_22_2021242.03 (0.2%)248.89 (0.6%)250.83 (-0.8%) 249.52 249.03(0%)244.65(-3.45%)244.65-244.651.1(0.3)-2.1 -0.9%0.2%0%0.48%2.8%612.1 Confirmed Correction  Higher(1%)70.41.7Uptrend Consolidation 244.72(0.03%)243.78-247.553.21   -4.5%-20.4% 
5Feb_19_2021241.85 (0.2%)248.13 (0.8%)252.74 (0.1%) 252.37 250.99(0%)253.4(1.94%)253.4-253.41.5(1.3)0.2 0.2%0.5%0%0.62%2.6%762.1 Growing Uptrend  Range(0.7%)71.61.9Uptrend 257.12(1.47%)251.15-259.693.71   -1%-26.8% 
 
6Feb_18_2021241.37 (0.4%)246.44 (0.8%)252.4 (0.5%) 252.57 250.01(0%)248.57(-1.15%)248.57-248.571.6(0.9)-0.7 -0.8%0.4%0%0.66%2.1%682 Correction Correction Range(0.2%)70.71.9Uptrend Dip 258.86(4.14%)246.04-262.082.99   -2.9%-25.3% 
7Feb_17_2021240.99 (0.4%)245.1 (0.8%)251.22 (0.8%) 253.36 253.76(0%)251.46(-1.8%)251.46-251.461.7(1.3)0.1 0.1%0.4%0%0.68%1.7%742 Uptrend Dip  Higher(1.4%)81.12.1Uptrend Dip 261.44(3.97%)247.69-264.873.61   -1.8%-26.7% 
8Feb_16_2021240.49 (0.4%)243.81 (0.8%)249.33 (1.1%) 251.17 255.14(0%)256.06(0.73%)256.06-256.061.7(2)2.3 1%0.7%0%0.64%1.4%621.9 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.7%)822Growing Uptrend 260.72(1.82%)253.21-262.583.42   0%-29% 
9Feb_12_2021239.35 (0.2%)241.7 (0.6%)246.67 (1.6%) 247.8 252.96(0%)254.21(1.01%)254.21-254.211.6(2.2)2.2 1.8%0.9%0%0.52%1%581.7 Breakout  Higher(2.7%)822.1Growing Uptrend 257.77(1.4%)251.67-259.293.32   0%-31.6% 
10Feb_11_2021238.52 (0.2%)239.04 (0.4%)242.88 (1.3%) 244.57 247.2(0%)251.68(3.7%)251.68-251.791.2(2.2)3.3 1.7%0.7%0%0.3%0.2%561.5 Breakout  Higher(2.4%)72.12.2Growing Uptrend 253.49(0.72%)249.5-254.495.03   0%-30.2% 
 
11Feb_10_2021237.57 (0.2%)236.94 (0%)239.74 (0.7%) 240.46 242.63(0%)242.7(0.28%)242.7-242.70.7(1)3.3 0.5%0.5%0%0.12%-0.3%461.3 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1%)602.2Uptrend 243.21(0.21%)241.91-243.753.33   -1.2%-28.6% 
12Feb_9_2021237.16 (0.2%)235.3 (-0.2%)238.07 (0.3%) 238.79 241.95(0%)242.02(-0.3%)242.02-244.240.5(1)1.3 1.1%0.2%0%-0.02%-0.8%491.2 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1.5%)5-0.22N/A 241.03(-0.41%)239.32-242.411.56   -1.5%-28.2% 
13Feb_8_2021236.74 (0.2%)234.77 (-0.2%)237.41 (0.6%) 236.73 238.28(0%)242.76(3.19%)237.02-242.760.3(1.2)2.3 0.8%0.2%0%-0.06%-0.8%491.2 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1%)40.11.8N/A 241.38(-0.57%)239.7-242.764.48   -1.2%-28.6% 
14Feb_5_2021236.11 (0.2%)234.46 (-0.2%)236.01 (0.6%) 236.08 235.63(0%)235.24(-0.32%)235.24-235.240.1(-0.2)1.1 0.2%-0.1%0%-0.06%-0.7%521.2 Downtrend Consolidation  Range(0.3%)3-11.7N/A 235.45(0.09%)235.24-235.612.36   -4.3%-24.6% 
15Feb_4_2021235.95 (0.2%)234.98 (-0.2%)234.53 (0.4%) 236.21 235.17(0%)236.01(0.72%)236.01-236.10(0)1.9 %-0.2%0%-0.1%-0.4%481.2 Downtrend Consolidation  Range(-0.2%)4-0.51.5Correction 235.61(-0.17%)235.5-235.762.31   -4%-26.6% 
 
16Feb_3_2021235.34 (0.2%)235.83 (-0.2%)233.64 (0.7%) 234.16 236.54(0%)234.32(-1.86%)234.32-234.320(-0.2)0.7 0.1%-0.2%0%-0.06%0.2%521.4 Downtrend Consolidation Downtrend Pop Range(0.8%)5-0.31.7N/A 234.55(0.1%)234.32-234.763.19   -4.6%-30.2% 
17Feb_2_2021234.83 (0.2%)236.56 (-0.2%)231.97 (0.1%) 233.47 237.25(0%)238.75(1.27%)238.75-238.75-0.1(0.6)1.5 1.6%0%0%-0.08%0.7%541.5 Uptrend Reversal  Higher(1.6%)50.61.4Correction 236.79(-0.82%)235.46-238.424.26   -2.8%-35.6% 
18Feb_1_2021233.87 (0.4%)236.89 (-0.2%)231.78 (-0.5%) 230.27 231.79(0%)235.75(3.48%)235.75-235.75-0.1(0.3)0.8 0.3%0.1%0%-0.04%1.3%531.7 Uptrend Reversal  Range(0.4%)50.61.1Correction 234.78(-0.41%)234.28-235.382.55   -4.1%-33.9% 
19Jan_29_2021233.07 (0.4%)236.82 (-0.2%)232.89 (-1.1%) 230.77 229.69(0%)227.83(-1.61%)227.83-227.83-0.1(-0.7)-3.3 -0.5%-0.3%0%0.04%1.6%511.8 Growing Downtrend  Range(0%)50.20.2Correction 224.91(-1.28%)224.17-227.833.81   -7.3%-30.2% 
20Jan_28_2021232.68 (0.4%)238.06 (0%)235.57 (-1.2%) 234.14 228.75(0%)231.55(2.48%)231.55-231.550.3(-0.1)-1.4 -1.2%0%0%0.2%2.3%532 Downtrend Reversal  Lower(-1.2%)60.10.6Uptrend Consolidation 231.83(0.12%)231.55-232.630   -5.8%-33.4% 
 
21Jan_27_2021231.88 (0.6%)238.4 (0.4%)238.41 (-1.3%) 236.56 231.86(0%)225.95(-4.99%)225.95-225.950.7(-0.7)-2.6 -2.6%-0.3%0%0.38%2.8%582.1 Downtrend Reversal  Range(-0.4%)7-0.40.9Uptrend Consolidation 227.74(0.79%)227.67-227.965.64   -8.1%-30.1% 
22Jan_26_2021231.43 (0.6%)239.47 (0.6%)241.61 (-0.4%) 241.53 239.53(0%)237.81(-1.45%)237.64-237.811.2(0.7)-2.2 -0.6%0.2%0%0.58%3.5%692.5 Confirmed Correction  Range(0.3%)80.41.5Uptrend Consolidation 237.03(-0.33%)235.33-242.122.67   -3.2%-37% 
23Jan_25_2021230.32 (0.6%)239.13 (0.8%)242.62 (0.6%) 242.58 241.27(0%)241.3(0.02%)241.3-241.31.4(1.1)-0.7 -0.4%0.5%0%0.72%3.8%762.6 Confirmed Correction Correction Range(0.1%)90.82.2Uptrend 247.07(2.39%)239.15-250.453.41   -1.8%-39% 
24Jan_22_2021228.9 (0.6%)238.09 (0.8%)241.29 (0.2%) 242.97 243.52(0%)241.24(-1.83%)241.24-241.241.5(1.2)0.1 0.2%0.5%0%0.74%4%762.6 Uptrend Dip  Higher(1.6%)101.12.1Uptrend Dip 254.94(5.68%)236.39-259.572.52   -1.8%-39% 
25Jan_21_2021227.54 (0.6%)237.12 (1%)240.91 (1%) 241.32 243.89(0%)245.74(1.55%)245.74-245.981.7(1.8)3.4 0.7%0.9%0%0.82%4.2%832.7 Growing Uptrend  Higher(1.6%)101.72.4Uptrend 252.6(2.79%)242.37-256.963.48   0%-41.5% 
iDateema20(Trend)ema10(Trend) ema5(Trend) Slow Hourly
Trend
Fast Hourly
Trend
CloseActualPriceRangeBBVHourly
BBV
Daily
Moving
Force
Weekly
Trend
Force
Reversal
Force
TrendTrend
Strength
RSIMomentumTrend
Pattern
Next
Direction
CRVVIXCDTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeVolume
millions
To High-Low
 
 
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