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     Wed. Aug. 12, 2020

Trading Signals: NVAX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Mon. Jun. 21, 2021)

(Novavax, Inc.)

NVAX latest price $124.4800 (-16.72%) ($112.5100 - $148.5000) on Wed. Aug. 12, 2020.


Trend Analysis and Forecast
 
Trend Narrative  Breakdown
Price Pattern  N/A
Average Daily Price Swing  $16.59 (11.17% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing  8.49% (three month average)
Moving Force
(Hourly Trend Force)
  -60.35%
Trend Force  -17.7%
RSI   48
Momentum  1.3
Latest Price   $124.4800(-16.72%)
Forecasted Low Price  -177.66(-242.72%)
Forecasted High Price  -172.38(-238.48%)
Direction of Next Movement  Solid DownMove($-175.02, -240.6%)
Bullish Probability  15%
Short-term volatility hourly trend  Equity Bullish (-60)
Mid-term volatility hourly trend  Equity Bullish (-60)
Risk Appetite   (0)
% Change Needed to Confirm Rebound  61.9% ((201.51))
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal  30%
Stocks Behave Similarly  Similar Stock List
Complacency  7
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  NVAX declines -5.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  NVAX advances 5.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support NVAX decline at-2.5% a week (40% probability)
  XBI(47%)    IBB(43%)    ARKG(37%)    ARKK(36%)    IPO(36%)  
Factors Impacting NVAX price  NVAX will decline at least -4.245% in a week (13% probabilities).
  VXX(-17%)    VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-8%)    TBT(-8%)    IYT(-8%)  
Explanation   The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Short the breakdown
 
Valuation to SPY   -0.3
 
Relative Volatility   -1.5 (options are cheap)
 
Market Trend Strength  -7.845% (StdDev 8.49%)
Hourly BBV   -1.2 ()
Intraday Trend   0%
  
 

  


Next Day Open Price  $122.26(-1.78%)
Inflection Point  Yes
Resistance Level  $148.53
5 Day Moving Average  $158.05(-21.24%)
10 Day Moving Average  $156.62(-20.52%)
20 Day Moving Average  $148.53(-16.19%)
To recent high  -30.3%
To recent low  225.6%
Market Cap  $7.62b
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
Earning Release Date  Mon. Aug. 9, 2021
Analyst One Year Target Price  $227.60 ($105.00 - $290.00)
  5 analysts (last updated on Wed. Aug. 5, 2020)
% to Average Target Price  82.84%
% to Low Target Price  -15.65%
% to High Target Price  132.97%
 
 


Novavax, Inc. is operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. The firm's vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

JUL 7, 2020 Shares of NVAX surged more than 40% on the news ts has received $1.6 to develop and to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program.
The vaccine, which focuses on boosting the body’s immune system to effectively combat a Covid-19 infection, is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia, with preliminary results expected at the end of this month.


$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. NVAX price fluctuates within 11.17% (three month std-dev: 8.49%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. NVAX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20200912

iDateema20ema10 ema5 Slow Hourly
Trend
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millions
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Setup
SetupRangeBullPPattern
Setup
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Force

(Hourly
Trend
Force
)
Reversal
Force
Daily
Trend
Force
Daily
StdDev
Hourly
BBV
BBVRSITrendPatternVIXCD
1Aug_12_2020148.53156.62158.05 157.43 140.27124.48(-16.72%)17.67    -240.6% -242.7%--238.5% 15% Solid DownMove-92.07%0%-17.7%8.49%0-1.448 Breakdown N/A1.6
2Aug_11_2020148.19159.21167.81 167.68 165.47149.48(-16.25%)15.11    -239.9% -242.7%--237.1% 20% Solid DownMove-92.25%0%-14.1%11.03%00.154 Downtrend Reversal N/A1.1
3Aug_10_2020146.4159.32169.34 173.24 174.58178.49(4.9%)7.43    -238.9% -241.7%--236.1% 10% Solid DownMove-91.96%0%-13.4%11.26%01.670 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.7
4Aug_7_2020142.71155.37164.8 167.63 169.89170.15(1.5%)6.5    -239.1% -241.9%--236.3% 10% Solid DownMove-92.02%0%-13.5%11.26%01.369 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.6
5Aug_6_2020139151.74159.41 163.33 171.89167.63(-3.28%)7.85    -239.1% -241.9%--236.3% 10% Solid DownMove-91.91%0%-14.3%11.26%01.366 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.7
 
6Aug_5_2020135.48148.85155.21 157.27 165.36173.32(10.33%)17.78    -240% 0.1%--92% 10% Solid DownMove-91.97%-0.1%-15%11.26%01.778 Breakdown Overbought1.7
7Aug_4_2020131.7145.91149.62 149.81 154.76157.09(0.81%)8.24    -240% -242.8%--237.2% 10% Solid DownMove-92.01%0%-16.4%11.26%01.278 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.6
8Aug_3_2020129.05144.18147.89 147.76 149.18155.83(8.84%)6.72    -239.8% -242.6%--237% 10% Solid DownMove-91.93%0%-16.3%11.25%01.279 Breakdown N/A1.3
9Jul_31_2020125.32142.35144.64 145.76 144.85143.18(-2.34%)4.23    -240.3% -243.1%--237.5% 15% Solid DownMove-92.02%0%-17.1%11.32%00.878 Downtrend Reversal N/A1.5
10Jul_30_2020122.36142.09142.73 144.21 146.34146.61(0.84%)5.4    -240.5% -243.3%--237.7% 10% Solid DownMove-91.97%0%-18%11.35%01.184 Breakdown N/A1.3
 
11Jul_29_2020119.09139.63141.33 140.97 146.68145.39(-2.07%)5.63    -240.4% -243.2%--237.6% 10% Solid DownMove-92.02%0%-17.4%11.36%01.181 Breakdown N/A1.6
12Jul_28_2020116.01136.41141.6 139.44 142.08148.46(6.38%)5.86    -239.5% -242.4%--236.6% 10% Solid DownMove-91.93%0%-15.3%11.47%01.480 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.5
13Jul_27_2020112.73132.66140.05 138.8 135.26139.56(4.45%)4.99    -239.1% -242%--236.2% 10% Solid DownMove-91.98%0%-13.9%11.49%01.172 Downtrend Reversal Downtrend Pop1.5
14Jul_24_2020109.64129.31139.82 139.58 136.79133.61(-4.3%)4.81    -238.5% -241.4%--235.6% 10% Solid DownMove-91.98%0%-11.9%11.5%0181 Downtrend Reversal N/A1.2
15Jul_23_2020107.11125.66141.19 140.97 142.34139.61(-4.88%)5.9    -237.4% -240.3%--234.5% 10% Solid DownMove-92.02%0%-8.5%11.48%01.481 Downtrend Reversal N/A1.3
 
16Jul_22_2020103.96121.43137.36 140.27 142.37146.78(4.33%)6.12    -238.1% 0.2%--92% 10% Solid DownMove-91.99%-0.19%-7.9%11.48%01.984 Breakdown Overbought1.8
17Jul_21_2020100.02116.49130.24 133.92 139.6140.69(1.66%)8.86    -264.3% 1.2%--100% 10% Solid DownMove-100%-1.15%-10.6%11.49%01.980 Downtrend Reversal Overbought1.8
18Jul_20_202096.21112.67124.08 126.32 138.18138.39(-1.5%)12.86    -258.2% 4%--92% 20% Solid DownMove-91.96%-3.99%-10.3%11.6%02.179 Breakdown Overbought2.2
19Jul_17_202092.43106.77117.25 118.8 128.25140.5(16.67%)15.1    -296.9% 11.6%--92.1% 15% Solid DownMove-92.02%-11.53%-10.6%11.89%02.582 Breakdown Overbought1.9
20Jul_16_202088.26100.72108.02 110.32 114.47120.43(8.32%)6.75    -251.2% 2.5%--91.9% 10% Solid DownMove-91.9%-2.5%-12.6%11.78%01.972 Breakdown Overbought1.5
 
21Jul_15_202084.9896.61103.19 104.58 109.36111.18(1.15%)5.24    -238.6% -241.5%--235.7% 10% Solid DownMove-91.91%0%-12.9%11.76%01.672 Breakdown Downtrend Pop1.4
22Jul_14_202082.0393.77100.65 101.09 106.17109.92(5.48%)5.33    -238.5% -241.5%--235.6% 10% Solid DownMove-91.93%0%-12.5%11.78%01.776 Breakdown Downtrend Pop0.9
23Jul_13_202079.0891.0499.55 98.95 99.81104.2(10.43%)8.61    -238.5% -241.5%--235.6% 10% Solid DownMove-92.12%0%-10.9%11.78%01.676 Breakdown N/A0
24Jul_10_202076.1788.3294.59 99.03 96.2494.36(-2.02%)3.07    -238.8% -241.7%--235.9% 10% Solid DownMove-92%0%-12.7%11.75%-01.174 Downtrend Reversal N/A1.2
25Jul_9_202073.7287.1992.08 94.99 98.1996.31(-2.17%)4.33    -239.4% -242.4%--236.5% 10% Solid DownMove-92.07%0%-13.9%11.82%-0.11.378 Breakdown N/A0.8
iDateema20ema10 ema5 Slow Hourly
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(Hourly
Trend
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Daily
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Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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