Trading Signals: NVAX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ NVAX: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Aug. 3, 2020

Trading Signals: NVAX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Tue. Jan. 26, 2021)

(Novavax, Inc.)
NVAX latest price $155.8300 (8.84%) ($144.6940 - $159.9700) on Mon. Aug. 3, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $22.03 (17.07% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   11.25% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   1.8% (StdDev 11.25%)
Daily Moving Force   2.3%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   2.08%
Trend Strength   11.7%
RSI   79
Momentum   1.5
Latest Price   $155.8300(8.84%)
Forecasted Low Price   151.47(-2.8%)
Forecasted High Price   166.58(6.9%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(4.4%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   13.2% (137.68)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   13.7%
Hourly Trend 2.9% [$149.18(4.33), $147.76(2)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   7
Intraday Reversal Probability   There's a high probability the price will reverse sharply to downside intraday or next day..
Daily Trend   NVAX advances 2.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVAX advances 8.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVAX advance at 1.7% a week (29% probability)
XBI(35%)    ARKG(30%)    IBB(29%)    VCSH(27%)    IPO(23%)
Factors Impacting NVAX price   NVAX will decline at least -1.4% in a week (7% probabilities).
EDOC(-8%)    UUP(-7%)    IYT(-7%)    TBT(-6%)    XLC(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 1.3

Relative Volatility 0.7 (options are expensive)

Market Trend Strength   2.1% (StdDev 11.25%)
Hourly BBV 2.1 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Next Day Open Price   $158.48(1.7%)
Support Level   $129.05
5 Day Moving Average   $147.89(5.37%)
10 Day Moving Average   $144.18(8.08%)
20 Day Moving Average   $129.05(20.75%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   807.8%
Market Cap   $9.539b

Option Sentiment

Earning Release Date   Mon. Mar. 1, 2021
Analyst One Year Target Price   $129.00 ($105.00 - $155.00)
  5 analysts (last updated on Wed. Jul. 15, 2020)
% to Average Target Price   -17.22%
% to Low Target Price   -32.62%
% to High Target Price   -0.53%

Novavax, Inc. is operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. The firm's vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

JUL 7, 2020 Shares of NVAX surged more than 40% on the news ts has received $1.6 to develop and to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company�s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government�s Operation Warp Speed program.
The vaccine, which focuses on boosting the body�s immune system to effectively combat a Covid-19 infection, is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia, with preliminary results expected at the end of this month.

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. NVAX price fluctuates within 17.07% (three month std-dev: 11.25% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. NVAX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200903

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Aug_3_2020	129.05 (2.8%)	144.18 (1.8%)	147.89 (2.3%)	147.76	149.18(0%)	155.83(8.84%)	144.69-159.97	1.1(1.2)	2.1	2.3%	1.8%	0%	2.08%	11.7%	79	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(4.1%)	7	1.3	1.6	Uptrend	161.49(3.63%)	149.84-166.47	6.72	0%-807.8%
2	Jul_31_2020	125.32 (2.8%)	142.35 (2%)	144.64 (1.3%)	145.76	144.85(0%)	143.18(-2.34%)	142-148.78	0.8(0.8)	0.5	0.1%	0.8%	0%	2.26%	13.6%	78	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.1%)	7	0.9	1.7	Uptrend	148.95(4.03%)	139.5-153	4.23	-3.6%-734.1%
3	Jul_30_2020	122.36 (2.8%)	142.09 (2.6%)	142.73 (1%)	144.21	146.34(0%)	146.61(0.84%)	139.57-148.88	1(1.1)	2.2	0.8%	2%	0%	2.68%	16.1%	84	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.8%)	8	1.2	1.7	Uptrend	154.56(5.42%)	141.13-160.31	5.4	-1.2%-754.1%
4	Jul_29_2020	119.09 (3%)	139.63 (3%)	141.33 (-0.2%)	140.97	146.68(0%)	145.39(-2.07%)	143.53-154.7	1(1.1)	0.9	1.9%	2.4%	0%	2.98%	17.2%	81	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Range(5.3%)	8	1.2	1.9	Uptrend	153.79(5.78%)	139.59-159.89	5.63	-2.1%-747%
5	Jul_28_2020	116.01 (3.2%)	136.41 (3.4%)	141.6 (1.1%)	139.44	142.08(0%)	148.46(6.38%)	136.5-151	1.2(1.4)	1.4	2.8%	2.8%	0%	3.36%	17.6%	80	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Range(5.6%)	8	1.5	1.8	Uptrend	159.05(7.13%)	140.79-166.86	5.86	0%-764.9%

6	Jul_27_2020	112.73 (3.4%)	132.66 (3.6%)	140.05 (0.2%)	138.8	135.26(0%)	139.56(4.45%)	131.83-141.28	1(1.1)	0.4	-0.7%	2.6%	0%	3.52%	17.7%	72	1.8	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(1.9%)	8	1.2	1.8	Uptrend	150.05(7.52%)	133.73-157.05	4.99	-4.9%-713%
7	Jul_24_2020	109.64 (3.8%)	129.31 (4.2%)	139.82 (-1%)	139.58	136.79(0%)	133.61(-4.3%)	126.55-136.09	0.9(1)	-0.9	-2.5%	2.7%	0%	4.08%	17.9%	81	1.9	Confirmed Correction	Range(2.4%)	9	1.2	1.5	Uptrend	146.26(9.47%)	128.55-153.84	4.81	-9%-678.4%
8	Jul_23_2020	107.11 (4.2%)	125.66 (5%)	141.19 (2.8%)	140.97	142.34(0%)	139.61(-4.88%)	134.04-151.2	1.2(1.4)	1.5	0.7%	3.2%	0%	4.74%	17.3%	81	1.9	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.3%)	9	1.5	1.4	Uptrend	155.8(11.6%)	132.7-165.71	5.9	-4.9%-713.3%
9	Jul_22_2020	103.96 (4.4%)	121.43 (5.2%)	137.36 (5.5%)	140.27	142.37(0%)	146.78(4.33%)	133.19-147.5	1.7(1.9)	4.7	3.4%	4%	0%	4.94%	16.8%	84	1.9	Growing Uptrend	Higher(7.4%)	9	1.9	1.7	Uptrend	164.04(11.76%)	136.24-175.96	6.12	0%-755.1%
10	Jul_21_2020	100.02 (4.4%)	116.49 (4.8%)	130.24 (5%)	133.92	139.6(0%)	140.69(1.66%)	134.55-148.95	1.7(1.9)	6.4	3.2%	3.4%	0%	4.7%	16.5%	80	1.9	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.6%)	9	1.9	1.7	Uptrend	155.84(10.77%)	130.79-166.59	8.86	0%-719.6%

11	Jul_20_2020	96.21 (4.4%)	112.67 (4.8%)	124.08 (5.8%)	126.32	138.18(0%)	138.39(-1.5%)	124.1-151.2	1.8(2.1)	1.9	6.5%	4.8%	0%	4.62%	17.1%	79	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Higher(12.1%)	9	1.8	2.1	Relative Overbought	145.14(4.88%)	107.4-176.02	12.86	-1.5%-706.2%
12	Jul_17_2020	92.43 (4.2%)	106.77 (4.2%)	117.25 (8.5%)	118.8	128.25(0%)	140.5(16.67%)	127.8-144.54	2.3(2.5)	2.3	9.1%	5.3%	-8.1%	4.2%	15.5%	82	1.7	Overbought	Lower(-11.3%)	8	2	2	Growing Uptrend	156.35(11.28%)	127.53-163.56	15.1	0%-718.5%
13	Jul_16_2020	88.26 (4%)	100.72 (3.2%)	108.02 (4.7%)	110.32	114.47(0%)	120.43(8.32%)	109.1-122.68	1.7(1.9)	2.7	4.7%	4%	0%	3.36%	14.1%	72	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Higher(8.7%)	7	1.2	1.8	Growing Uptrend	129.79(7.77%)	113.1-133.96	6.75	0%-601.6%
14	Jul_15_2020	84.98 (3.8%)	96.61 (2.6%)	103.19 (2.5%)	104.58	109.36(0%)	111.18(1.15%)	105.8-114.94	1.5(1.6)	2.6	3%	3.1%	0%	3.02%	13.7%	72	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.1%)	7	0.8	1.8	Uptrend	117.38(5.58%)	104.87-122.75	5.24	0%-547.7%
15	Jul_14_2020	82.03 (4%)	93.77 (2.8%)	100.65 (1.1%)	101.09	106.17(0%)	109.92(5.48%)	99.15-112.77	1.6(1.7)	1.6	3.8%	3.1%	0%	3.12%	14.3%	76	1.7	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.9%)	7	0.8	1.3	Uptrend	116.19(5.7%)	102.84-121.9	5.33	0%-540.4%

16	Jul_13_2020	79.08 (4.2%)	91.04 (3.2%)	99.55 (5.2%)	98.95	99.81(0%)	104.2(10.43%)	95.26-113.98	1.4(1.6)	1.4	2.8%	3.2%	0%	3.5%	15.1%	76	1.7	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6%)	7	0.6	1	Uptrend	112.09(7.57%)	98.37-117.97	8.61	-0.2%-507%
17	Jul_10_2020	76.17 (3.8%)	88.32 (3%)	94.59 (2.7%)	99.03	96.24(0%)	94.36(-2.02%)	93.51-98.61	1(1.1)	-0.5	0.7%	1.9%	0%	3.2%	16%	74	1.8	Growing Uptrend	Range(3.6%)	7	0.2	1.3	Uptrend	101.67(7.75%)	90.3-106.55	3.07	-9.6%-449.7%
18	Jul_9_2020	73.72 (3.8%)	87.19 (3.2%)	92.08 (3.7%)	94.99	98.19(0%)	96.31(-2.17%)	93.48-101.16	1.2(1.3)	1	0.2%	2.6%	0%	3.44%	18.3%	78	2	Growing Uptrend	Range(3.9%)	8	0.3	1	Uptrend	104.17(8.16%)	91.29-109.69	4.33	-7.8%-464.9%
19	Jul_8_2020	71.16 (3.6%)	85.3 (3.4%)	88.77 (3.5%)	90.98	101.77(0%)	98.45(-5.73%)	95.5-105.02	1.4(1.6)	0.8	7.2%	3.5%	0%	3.54%	19.9%	81	2	Growing Uptrend	Higher(13.6%)	8	0.4	1.1	Uptrend	107.3(8.99%)	91.91-113.9	7.87	-5.7%-477.4%
20	Jul_7_2020	68.5 (3.4%)	82.41 (3.6%)	85.76 (5.1%)	86.06	91.83(0%)	104.43(31.54%)	95.5-111.77	2(2.2)	1.6	9.1%	4.7%	0%	3.64%	20.3%	87	2.1	Overbought	Higher(13.8%)	8	0.6	1	Overbought	86.66(-17.02%)	63.79-120.94	26.4	0%-600.9%

21	Jul_6_2020	65.42 (3%)	78.44 (3.6%)	81.6 (0.5%)	80.98	80.19(0%)	79.39(-2.99%)	76.1-81.19	0.8(0.9)	-1.8	-0.4%	2%	0%	3.5%	19.9%	82	2	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(3.1%)	8	-0.2	1.1	Uptrend	86.23(8.62%)	76.65-90.34	3.82	-5.1%-432.8%
22	Jul_2_2020	63.78 (3.2%)	77.09 (4.4%)	81.2 (-0.4%)	82.27	80.3(0%)	81.84(2.61%)	75.4-84.3	1.1(1.2)	0.2	-0.7%	2.8%	0%	4.04%	20.9%	88	2.1	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(2.1%)	9	0	1.2	Uptrend	90.11(10.11%)	77.43-95.55	5.17	-2.1%-490.5%
23	Jul_1_2020	61.91 (3.4%)	74.95 (5.4%)	81.52 (0.5%)	81.34	81.78(0%)	79.76(-4.35%)	76.58-82.6	1.1(1.2)	-0.4	-1.7%	3%	0%	4.74%	21.1%	88	2.1	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(3.5%)	10	0	0.9	Uptrend	89.3(11.96%)	75.4-95.25	6.6	-4.6%-475.5%
24	Jun_30_2020	60.11 (3.4%)	72.63 (6%)	81.09 (3.5%)	82.23	84.24(0%)	83.39(-0.28%)	80.67-89.5	1.4(1.6)	1	3.2%	3.9%	0%	5.24%	20.8%	90	2.1	Growing Uptrend	Higher(7.2%)	10	0.1	0.4	Uptrend	95.13(14.08%)	77.85-102.54	7.76	-0.3%-514.1%
25	Jun_29_2020	58.33 (3.2%)	69.56 (6%)	78.34 (4.8%)	80.7	80.9(0%)	83.62(8.05%)	78.7-88.97	1.7(1.9)	2.4	2.8%	4.1%	0%	5.22%	19.2%	88	2	Growing Uptrend	Higher(6.9%)	10	0.2	0.4	Uptrend	94.58(13.11%)	77.34-101.98	8.68	0%-515.8%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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