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     Fri. Sep. 18, 2020



Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Sep. 18, 2020)

(Microsoft)

MSFT latest price $200.1900 (-1.38%) ($196.2500 - $203.6500) on Fri. Sep. 18, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  MSFT declines -0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  MSFT declines -4.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support MSFT decline at-2.1% a week (88% probability)
  XLK(90%)    IWF(89%)    QQQ(88%)    VUG(88%)    IVW(87%)  
Factors Impacting MSFT price  MSFT will advance at least 0.5% in a week (38% probabilities).
  VXX(-48%)    VIXM(-45%)    UUP(-31%)    SHY(-26%)    TLT(-25%)  
Explanation   The decline is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   -1.3
 
Relative Volatility   1.6 (options are expensive)
 
Hourly Trend   -1.5% [$201.32(-3.12), $204.38(-1.47)]
Last Hour Trend   0.34% [$199.39, $198.72]


MSFT Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  56%
Bullish Price Move  2.1%
Bearish Probability  44%
Bearish Price Move  -2.1%
Recommended Position Size  6%
Latest Price  $200.1900
Next Day Open Price  $201.55(0.68%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $196.81(-1.69%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $185.95(-7.11%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $194.3 - $202.68
Resistance Level  $213.64
5 Day Moving Average  $204.44(-2.08%)
10 Day Moving Average  $205.81(-2.73%)
20 Day Moving Average  $213.64(-6.3%)
To recent high  -13.5%
To recent low  2.4%
Market Cap  $1515.638b
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
Earning Release Date  Thu. Oct. 22, 2020
Analyst One Year Target Price  $233.68 ($208.00 - $260.00)
  27 analysts (last updated on Wed. Sep. 9, 2020)
% to Average Target Price  16.73%
% to Low Target Price  3.9%
% to High Target Price  29.88%
 


  
 
 


Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.


$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 4.53% (three month std-dev: 2.11%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. MSFT price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   Hourly Chart   15 Minute Chart

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVT(RV,IV)VIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Sep_18_2020-13.5%-2.4% -1%,-0.2(-0)-4.8%,-1.1(0.1)-0.4%,-0.1-0.90.34%-3.7%-1.4-1.31.6(4.53%,NAN%)2.155.15   200.19(-1.38%)196.25-203.65Downtrend 196.81(-1.69%)194.3-202.6830
2Sep_17_2020-12.3%-4.4% -0.7%,-0.2(-0)-5%,-1.2(-0.1)-0.2%,-0-0.60%-3.2%-1.3-1.51.5(4.26%,2.01%)2.133.92   202.99(-0.96%)199.96-204.33Growing Downtrend 200.05(-1.45%)197.37-205.1533
3Sep_16_2020-11.5%-5.9% -0.7%,-0.2(-0.1)-4.6%,-1.1(-0.2)-0.6%,-0.10.3-0.19%-2.2%-1.1-1.61.4(4.1%,1.87%)1.426.29   204.96(-1.82%)204.64-210.65Growing Downtrend 202.32(-1.29%)199.92-206.8540
4Sep_15_2020-9.8%-10.5% -0.4%,-0.1(0)-3.9%,-1(-0)0.6%,0.10.3-0.2%-1.4%-0.8-1.11.3(3.97%,1.52%)0.821.74   208.77(1.7%)206.93-209.78Downtrend 206.6(-1.04%)205.04-210.2246
5Sep_14_2020-11.3%-8.7% -0.5%,-0.1(-0)-3.8%,-1(-0.3)-0.9%,-0.2-0.6-0.15%-0.7%-1.2-1.61.5(3.94%,1.84%)0.830.2   205.29(0.56%)204.03-209.2Relative Oversold 205.29(0%)198.62-210.7547
 
6Sep_11_2020-11.8%-9.6% -0.3%,-0.1(-0)-2.8%,-0.7(-0.3)-1.3%,-0.3-0.30.24%0.2%-1.4-1.31.6(3.85%,1.88%)0.133.93   204.14(-0.44%)201.24-208.63Downtrend 202.59(-0.76%)200.99-206.346
7Sep_10_2020-11.4%-10% -0.1%,-0(-0.2)-1.7%,-0.5(-0.5)-2.5%,-0.70-0.73%1.2%-1.4-1.21.6(3.73%,2.33%)-0.734.98   205.05(-2.9%)204.11-214.74Downtrend 204.02(-0.5%)202.76-206.9646
8Sep_9_2020-8.8%-13.3% 0.5%,0.1(-0.1)0.1%,0(-0.3)-1.5%,-0.4-1.80.05%1.8%-0.7-0.61.6(3.61%,2.43%)-0.745.44   211.18(4.16%)206.69-214.84Range Bound 211.83(0.31%)213.09-210.854
9Sep_8_2020-12.4%-8.8% 0.7%,0.2(-0.1)1.1%,0.3(-0.4)-2%,-0.5-3-0.58%2.3%-1.6-1.72.1(3.8%,2.74%)-1.252.69   202.75(-5.42%)202.2-210.03Uptrend Dip 205.75(1.48%)202.36-206.6146
10Sep_4_2020-7.4%-17.2% 1.1%,0.3(-0.2)2.5%,0.7(-0.3)-1.3%,-0.4-2.41.01%2.7%-0.3-0.62.2(3.56%,2.44%)-1.160.21   214.38(-1.41%)205.19-218.36Uptrend Consolidation 215.34(0.45%)215.14-215.9157
 
11Sep_3_2020-6.1%-18.9% 1.7%,0.5(-0.1)3.5%,1(-0.2)-0.8%,-0.2-0.3-0.31%2.8%0.1-0.32.6(3.56%,2.32%)-2.457.73   217.44(-6.07%)214.96-229.31Uptrend Consolidation 217.79(0.16%)217.05-220.0262
12Sep_2_20200%-26.6% 2.2%,0.6(0)4.3%,1.2(0.1)0.9%,0.30.30.09%2.8%213.1(3.57%,1.62%)0.234.08   231.48(1.8%)227.35-232.86Growing Uptrend 236.11(2%)228.17-238.181
13Sep_1_2020-0.7%-24.4% 2.2%,0.7(0)3.9%,1.2(0)1%,0.3-0.30.19%2.2%1.80.93(3.2%,2.02%)025.66   227.39(1.06%)224.43-227.45Uptrend 230.44(1.34%)224.84-232.8577
14Aug_31_2020-1.7%-23.1% 2.1%,0.7(0)3.8%,1.3(0.1)1%,0.30.90.12%1.8%1.70.93(2.94%,1.99%)0.128.77   225(-1.75%)224.31-228.7Growing Uptrend 228.53(1.57%)222.85-229.9681
15Aug_28_20200%-26.2% 2.1%,0.7(0.1)3.4%,1.2(0.3)1.5%,0.52.40.07%1.4%2.41.83.5(2.87%,1.96%)0.826.09   229(1.01%)226.58-230.64Growing Uptrend 232.09(1.35%)226.04-233.675
 
16Aug_27_20200%-24.9% 1.8%,0.7(0.1)2.4%,1(0.4)1.1%,0.42.40.38%1%2.61.82.8(2.53%,2.31%)0.757.46   226.72(2.52%)219.4-231.15Growing Uptrend 228.67(0.86%)223.85-229.8865
17Aug_26_20200%-21.9% 1.5%,0.7(0.2)1.5%,0.7(0.3)1.1%,0.51.50.01%0.7%2.10.60.4(2.16%,1.98%)1.338.03   221.15(2.16%)217.36-222.09Growing Uptrend 222.3(0.52%)219.24-223.0653
18Aug_25_2020-0.1%-19.3% 1.1%,0.5(0.1)0.8%,0.4(0.3)0.5%,0.20.30.19%0.5%1.30-0.4(2.08%,1.35%)1.622.86   216.48(1.3%)213.1-216.61Growing Uptrend 216.98(0.23%)215.36-217.3853
19Aug_24_2020-1.3%-17.8% 0.8%,0.4(0.1)0.1%,0.1(0.3)0.3%,0.20.6-0.1%0.2%0.8-0.6-0.5(2.07%,1.72%)1.725.43   213.71(0.25%)212.43-215.52Growing Uptrend 213.92(0.1%)213.05-214.1550
20Aug_21_2020-1.6%-17.5% 0.6%,0.3(0.1)-0.4%,-0.2(-0)0.4%,0.20.9-0.04%0.2%0.8-0.3-0.1(2.18%,1.52%)1.735.76   213.17(-0.64%)212.85-216.25Correction 211.64(-0.72%)210.38-213.1744
 
21Aug_20_2020-1%-18.2% 0.5%,0.2(0.1)-0.4%,-0.2(-0.1)0.6%,0.30.30.43%0.4%1.20.20.1(2.23%,1.22%)1.526.83   214.55(2.25%)208.91-215Correction 212.17(-1.11%)210.24-214.5561
22Aug_19_2020-3.1%-15.6% 0.3%,0.1(-0)-0.2%,-0.1(-0.2)0.1%,00.3-0.3%0.7%0.3-0.8-0.2(2.17%,1.31%)1.627.37   209.83(-0.81%)209.25-212.1Range Bound 209.62(-0.1%)209.37-209.8359
23Aug_18_2020-2.3%-16.6% 0.3%,0.2(0.1)0.2%,0.1(-0)0.8%,0.40.60.21%0.8%0.7-0.6-0.3(2.17%,1.02%)1.621.29   211.54(0.64%)209.21-212.36Range Bound 211.29(-0.12%)210.39-21260
24Aug_17_2020-3%-15.8% 0.1%,0.1(-0)0.3%,0.1(-0.2)0.2%,0.10.30.02%0.9%0.4-0.9-0.3(2.17%,1.34%)1.820.13   210.2(0.64%)208.92-211.19Range Bound 210.01(-0.09%)209.52-210.4361
25Aug_14_2020-3.6%-15.7% 0.2%,0.1(0.1)0.7%,0.3(-0.2)-0.4%,-0.20.9-0.07%1.2%0.1-1.2-0.3(2.23%,1.28%)1.817.97   208.87(0.08%)207.51-209.59Uptrend Consolidation 208.77(-0.05%)208.64-209.1858
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVRVRVTVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
 
 
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