Trading Signals: MRNA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 16, 2020

Trading Signals: MRNA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 7, 2018 - Fri. Feb. 26, 2021)

(Moderna, Inc)
MRNA latest price $73.9400 (-2.17%) ($73.6650 - $76.9300) on Fri. Oct. 16, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Uptrend Consolidation
Trend Narrative   Uptrend Dip
Average Daily Price Swing   $3.12 (4.35% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.45% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.5% (StdDev 4.45%)
Daily Moving Force   -0.9%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.76%
Trend Strength   3.4%
RSI   61
Momentum   1
Latest Price   $73.9400(-2.17%)
Forecasted Low Price   73.13(-1.1%)
Forecasted High Price   75.27(1.8%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.6%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   0.2% (73.8)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   1.9%
Hourly Trend -2% [$75.23(-1.54), $76.62(0.18)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   8
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   MRNA advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MRNA advances 4.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MRNA decline at-0.5% a week (35% probability)
IPO(41%)    IBB(39%)    XBI(35%)    EDOC(31%)    ARKG(25%)
Factors Impacting MRNA price   MRNA will advance at least 0.4% in a week (12% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    CNCR(-14%)    INDA(-11%)    GLD(-8%)    URA(-7%)
Trading Plan   Buy the Dip

Valuation to SPY -0.8

Relative Volatility -1.4 (options are cheap)

Market Trend Strength   0.4% (StdDev 4.45%)
Hourly BBV -1.1 ()
Intraday Trend -2.8%

Next Day Open Price   $74.32(0.52%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Support Level   $71.75
5 Day Moving Average   $75.94(-2.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $74.19(-0.34%)
20 Day Moving Average   $71.75(3.05%)
To recent high   -22%
To recent low   36.1%
Market Cap   $29.079b

Option Sentiment

Earning Release Date   Wed. Mar. 10, 2021
Analyst One Year Target Price   $92.29 ($41.00 - $136.00)
  14 analysts (last updated on Thu. Oct. 8, 2020)
% to Average Target Price   24.82%
% to Low Target Price   -44.55%
% to High Target Price   83.93%

Moderna, Inc. engages in the development of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). Its product pipeline includes the following modalities: prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The company was founded by Noubar B. Afeyan, Robert S. Langer, Jr., Derrick J. Rose and Kenneth R. Chien in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

July 7, 2020 MRNA, which has developed a vaccine candidate mRNA-1273, is in its phase 2 clinical trials. The mRNA is a molecule that genetically encodes a set of instructions, based on which cells make proteins and send them to various parts of the body.

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. MRNA price fluctuates within 4.35% (three month std-dev: 4.45% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. MRNA price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201116

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Oct_16_2020	71.75 (0.6%)	74.19 (0.8%)	75.94 (0.3%)	76.62	75.23(0%)	73.94(-2.17%)	73.67-76.93	1.6(0.7)	-1.1	-0.9%	0.5%	0%	0.76%	3.4%	61	1	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(0.7%)	8	-0.8	0.9	Uptrend Dip	75.58(2.22%)	73.14-76.19	4.69	-22%-36.1%
2	Oct_15_2020	71.54 (0.8%)	73.74 (0.8%)	75.75 (0.7%)	76.44	76.77(0%)	75.58(-1.28%)	73.71-76.49	1.7(1.3)	0.5	-0.4%	0.7%	0%	0.8%	3.1%	69	1	Uptrend	Range(0.9%)	8	-0.7	0.7	After Top	75.53(-0.07%)	73.33-77.33	5.01	-20.3%-39.1%
3	Oct_14_2020	71.15 (0.8%)	73.19 (0.8%)	75.22 (1.1%)	75.89	78(0%)	76.56(-2.21%)	76.33-80.01	1.8(1.8)	1.4	2%	0.7%	0%	0.86%	2.9%	79	0.9	Growing Uptrend	Higher(3.8%)	8	-0.7	0.9	Uptrend Dip	78.23(2.18%)	74.43-79.18	6.64	-19.3%-40.9%
4	Oct_13_2020	70.74 (1%)	72.59 (0.8%)	74.38 (2%)	74.59	76.1(0%)	78.29(3.96%)	75.52-81.37	1.6(2.6)	1.8	2.5%	1.1%	0%	0.88%	2.6%	75	0.9	Breakout	Higher(3.6%)	8	-0.6	0.9	Breakout	78.84(0.7%)	76.78-79.72	13.67	-17.5%-44.1%
5	Oct_12_2020	70.14 (1%)	71.76 (0.6%)	72.93 (0.9%)	73.14	73.77(0%)	75.31(3.16%)	72.92-75.85	1.2(2)	2.4	0.9%	0.7%	0%	0.8%	2.3%	65	0.8	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.6%)	8	-0.7	1.3	Uptrend	75.71(0.53%)	74.32-76.3	7.59	-20.6%-38.6%

6	Oct_9_2020	69.56 (1%)	71.25 (0.6%)	72.26 (1.2%)	72.48	73.09(0%)	73(0.1%)	72.39-73.67	1(1.1)	2.3	0.9%	0.6%	0%	0.74%	2.4%	60	0.9	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.5%)	8	-0.7	1.1	Growing Uptrend	73.8(1.09%)	72.33-74.16	4.77	-23%-34.3%
7	Oct_8_2020	68.91 (0.8%)	70.9 (0.4%)	71.42 (0.8%)	71.87	72.5(0%)	72.93(0.77%)	72.01-73.76	0.9(1)	3.2	1%	1.1%	0%	0.62%	2.9%	57	1.1	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.1%)	7	-0.7	1.1	Growing Uptrend	73.79(1.18%)	72.32-74.16	4.02	-23.1%-34.2%
8	Oct_7_2020	68.18 (0.8%)	70.15 (0.4%)	70.84 (0.5%)	70.9	71.88(0%)	72.37(1.87%)	70.96-73.24	0.8(1)	0.8	0.8%	0.8%	0%	0.46%	2.9%	61	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.6%)	6	-0.7	0.7	Uptrend	72.81(0.61%)	71.67-73.31	4.19	-23.7%-33.2%
9	Oct_6_2020	67.44 (0.6%)	69.63 (0.2%)	70.52 (0.2%)	70.29	71.24(0%)	71.04(-1.26%)	70.31-73.92	0.8(0.7)	0.1	0.9%	0.6%	0%	0.38%	3.2%	56	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.1%)	5	-0.7	0.3	After Top	70.8(-0.34%)	69.04-72.24	7.29	-25.1%-30.7%
10	Oct_5_2020	66.65 (0.6%)	69.39 (0.2%)	70.41 (0.4%)	70.39	69.92(0%)	71.95(4.56%)	69.05-72.02	0.9(1)	1.7	0.5%	0.5%	0%	0.36%	4.1%	63	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Range(1%)	4	-0.6	0.5	Uptrend	72.19(0.34%)	70.85-72.78	6.52	-24.1%-32.4%

11	Oct_2_2020	66.17 (0.4%)	69.09 (0.4%)	70.13 (-0.2%)	70.34	69.34(0%)	68.81(-1.74%)	67.25-72.77	0.9(0.5)	-0.9	-1.2%	-0%	0%	0.42%	4.4%	65	1.5	Downtrend Reversal	Range(-0.3%)	5	-0.7	0.7	Uptrend Consolidation	68.16(-0.94%)	67.77-69.33	8	-27.5%-26.6%
12	Oct_1_2020	65.96 (0.4%)	69.19 (0.8%)	70.26 (1.4%)	70.59	70.85(0%)	70.03(-1.02%)	68.16-70.2	1(0.8)	0.4	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.62%	4.9%	76	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.9%)	6	-0.7	0.9	Uptrend	70.72(0.98%)	69.24-71.34	6.84	-26.2%-28.9%
13	Sep_30_2020	65.68 (0.2%)	68.98 (0.8%)	69.29 (1.1%)	70.14	71.34(0%)	70.75(0.33%)	70.16-75.39	1(1)	1.6	1.7%	0.4%	0%	0.68%	5%	79	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.1%)	6	-0.6	0.8	Uptrend	71.35(0.85%)	69.7-72.06	15.69	-25.4%-30.2%
14	Sep_29_2020	65.28 (0.2%)	68.76 (1.2%)	68.57 (0.5%)	68.41	70.33(0%)	70.52(-0.04%)	69.59-71.34	0.9(1.1)	3.2	1.4%	0.5%	0%	0.82%	5.3%	80	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.9%)	6	-0.6	0.9	Uptrend Consolidation	69.24(-1.81%)	68.48-71.54	6.29	-25.7%-29.8%
15	Sep_28_2020	64.97 (0.2%)	68.4 (1.4%)	68.21 (0.4%)	67.62	68.94(0%)	70.55(1.55%)	69.1-71.5	0.8(1.2)	1.5	2.1%	0.8%	0%	1.04%	5.3%	83	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.9%)	6	-0.6	0.9	N/A	70.68(0.18%)	67.21-73.51	7.34	-25.6%-29.8%

16	Sep_25_2020	64.77 (0.2%)	67.73 (1.4%)	67.96 (-0.1%)	67.08	66.48(0%)	69.47(6.6%)	65.67-69.73	0.7(1.1)	1	%	1%	0%	1.06%	4.6%	60	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1%)	6	-0.6	1.1	N/A	69.91(0.64%)	66.99-72.3	9.19	-26.8%-27.8%
17	Sep_24_2020	64.65 (0.2%)	66.78 (1.4%)	68.04 (-0.8%)	67.21	66.31(0%)	65.17(-2.96%)	63.64-66.77	0.7(0.1)	-1.8	-1.6%	0.6%	0%	1%	3.3%	52	1.3	Confirmed Correction	Range(0.5%)	7	-0.7	1.2	N/A	66.43(1.94%)	65.17-67.47	5.57	-31.3%-19.9%
18	Sep_23_2020	64.89 (0.2%)	66.13 (1.4%)	68.58 (-0.5%)	68.03	67.69(0%)	67.16(-2.27%)	65.77-68.62	0.9(0.5)	-1.1	-0.5%	1%	0%	0.98%	1.9%	54	1.4	Correction	Range(1.6%)	7	-0.6	1.3	Uptrend	68.2(1.55%)	66.81-68.8	6.92	-29.2%-23.6%
19	Sep_22_2020	64.82 (0.2%)	65.17 (1.2%)	68.92 (0.5%)	68.19	68.11(0%)	68.72(-0.78%)	66.67-69.19	1(0.9)	1.4	-0.1%	1.6%	0%	0.92%	0.5%	59	1.4	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(1.9%)	7	-0.6	1.6	Growing Uptrend	69.94(1.77%)	68.12-70.39	6.3	-27.5%-26.5%
20	Sep_21_2020	64.6 (0.2%)	63.79 (0.8%)	68.55 (1.7%)	68.26	68.38(0%)	69.26(-0.87%)	65.46-69.48	1(1.1)	2.1	0.6%	0.9%	0%	0.66%	-1.3%	56	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.9%)	7	-0.6	1.6	N/A	69.12(-0.2%)	66.78-71.03	8.22	-27%-27.5%

21	Sep_18_2020	64.43 (-0%)	63.07 (0.6%)	67.43 (3.2%)	67.75	68.27(0%)	69.87(2.92%)	66.1-70	0.8(1.3)	4.2	1.5%	0.7%	0%	0.38%	-2.1%	52	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.2%)	7	-0.6	2.1	Uptrend Reversal	71.37(2.14%)	70.1-72.21	13.21	-26.3%-28.6%
22	Sep_17_2020	64.28 (-0.2%)	62.46 (0%)	65.32 (3.3%)	66.09	68.14(0%)	67.89(-1.38%)	64.6-70.9	0.4(0.9)	3.2	2.4%	0.5%	0%	-0%	-2.8%	49	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(3.6%)	7	-0.7	2.1	Rebound	66.09(-2.65%)	68.11-65.23	13.28	-28.4%-24.9%
23	Sep_16_2020	64.24 (-0.4%)	62.05 (-0.4%)	63.26 (3.9%)	63.77	67.22(0%)	68.84(2.93%)	66.73-70.04	-0.1(1.1)	2.8	4.3%	0.8%	0%	-0.44%	-3.4%	46	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(5.1%)	6	-0.7	1.4	Downtrend Consolidation	68.22(-0.9%)	67.26-68.54	11.4	-27.4%-26.7%
24	Sep_15_2020	64.11 (-0.6%)	61.4 (-1%)	60.87 (4.3%)	61.18	64.04(0%)	66.88(5.04%)	64.23-68.41	-0.7(0.7)	2.1	5%	0.3%	0%	-0.86%	-4.2%	51	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(5.3%)	5	-0.8	0.8	Downtrend Consolidation	66.12(-1.13%)	66.02-66.16	9.1	-29.5%-23.1%
25	Sep_14_2020	64.21 (-0.8%)	61.1 (-1.4%)	58.36 (0.4%)	58.69	60.32(0%)	63.67(7.3%)	60.12-63.85	-1.6(-0.1)	2.6	2.5%	-0.5%	0%	-1.24%	-4.8%	49	1.3	Confirmed Rebound	Range(2%)	4	-0.9	0.8	After Bottom	62.56(-1.74%)	60.82-63.99	8.93	-32.9%-17.2%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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