Trading Signals: MRNA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ MRNA: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Oct. 5, 2020

Trading Signals: MRNA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 7, 2018 - Wed. Mar. 3, 2021)

(Moderna, Inc)
MRNA latest price $71.9500 (4.56%) ($69.0500 - $72.0200) on Mon. Oct. 5, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Growing Uptrend
Trend Narrative   Uptrend
Average Daily Price Swing   $5.1 (7.65% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.93% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.5% (StdDev 4.93%)
Daily Moving Force   0.5%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.36%
Trend Strength   4.1%
RSI   63
Momentum   1.6
Latest Price   $71.9500(4.56%)
Forecasted Low Price   71.09(-1.2%)
Forecasted High Price   73.53(2.2%)
Direction of Next Movement   Range(0.7%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   4.7% (68.73)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   6.2%
Hourly Trend 0.8% [$69.92(0.58), $70.39(0.05)]
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Complacency   4
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   MRNA advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MRNA advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MRNA advance at 0.8% a week (40% probability)
IPO(46%)    IBB(45%)    XBI(41%)    ARKK(33%)    ARKG(31%)
Factors Impacting MRNA price   MRNA will decline at least -1.1% in a week (8% probabilities).
VIXM(-13%)    VXX(-6%)    INDA(-6%)    TBT(-5%)    URA(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY -0.6

Relative Volatility 1.8 (options are extremely expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.2% (StdDev 4.93%)
Hourly BBV 1.7 ()
Intraday Trend 3.3%

Next Day Open Price   $72.01(0.08%)
Inflection Point   Yes
Support Level   $66.65
5 Day Moving Average   $70.41(2.19%)
10 Day Moving Average   $69.39(3.69%)
20 Day Moving Average   $66.65(7.95%)
To recent high   -24.1%
To recent low   32.4%
Market Cap   $28.296b

Option Sentiment

Earning Release Date   Wed. Mar. 10, 2021
Analyst One Year Target Price   $92.29 ($41.00 - $134.00)
  14 analysts (last updated on Wed. Sep. 30, 2020)
% to Average Target Price   28.27%
% to Low Target Price   -43.02%
% to High Target Price   86.24%

Moderna, Inc. engages in the development of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). Its product pipeline includes the following modalities: prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The company was founded by Noubar B. Afeyan, Robert S. Langer, Jr., Derrick J. Rose and Kenneth R. Chien in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

July 7, 2020 MRNA, which has developed a vaccine candidate mRNA-1273, is in its phase 2 clinical trials. The mRNA is a molecule that genetically encodes a set of instructions, based on which cells make proteins and send them to various parts of the body.

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. MRNA price fluctuates within 7.65% (three month std-dev: 4.93% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. MRNA price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201105

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Oct_5_2020	66.65 (0.6%)	69.39 (0.2%)	70.41 (0.4%)	70.39	69.92(0%)	71.95(4.56%)	69.05-72.02	0.9(1)	1.7	0.5%	0.5%	0%	0.36%	4.1%	63	1.6	Growing Uptrend	Range(1%)	4	-0.6	0.5	Uptrend	72.19(0.34%)	70.85-72.78	6.52	-24.1%-32.4%
2	Oct_2_2020	66.17 (0.4%)	69.09 (0.4%)	70.13 (-0.2%)	70.34	69.34(0%)	68.81(-1.74%)	67.25-72.77	0.9(0.5)	-0.9	-1.2%	-0%	0%	0.42%	4.4%	65	1.5	Downtrend Reversal	Range(-0.3%)	5	-0.7	0.7	Uptrend Consolidation	68.16(-0.94%)	67.77-69.33	8	-27.5%-26.6%
3	Oct_1_2020	65.96 (0.4%)	69.19 (0.8%)	70.26 (1.4%)	70.59	70.85(0%)	70.03(-1.02%)	68.16-70.2	1(0.8)	0.4	0.1%	0.3%	0%	0.62%	4.9%	76	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.9%)	6	-0.7	0.9	Uptrend	70.72(0.98%)	69.24-71.34	6.84	-26.2%-28.9%
4	Sep_30_2020	65.68 (0.2%)	68.98 (0.8%)	69.29 (1.1%)	70.14	71.34(0%)	70.75(0.33%)	70.16-75.39	1(1)	1.6	1.7%	0.4%	0%	0.68%	5%	79	1.5	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.1%)	6	-0.6	0.8	Uptrend	71.35(0.85%)	69.7-72.06	15.69	-25.4%-30.2%
5	Sep_29_2020	65.28 (0.2%)	68.76 (1.2%)	68.57 (0.5%)	68.41	70.33(0%)	70.52(-0.04%)	69.59-71.34	0.9(1.1)	3.2	1.4%	0.5%	0%	0.82%	5.3%	80	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.9%)	6	-0.6	0.9	Uptrend Consolidation	69.24(-1.81%)	68.48-71.54	6.29	-25.7%-29.8%

6	Sep_28_2020	64.97 (0.2%)	68.4 (1.4%)	68.21 (0.4%)	67.62	68.94(0%)	70.55(1.55%)	69.1-71.5	0.8(1.2)	1.5	2.1%	0.8%	0%	1.04%	5.3%	83	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.9%)	6	-0.6	0.9	N/A	70.68(0.18%)	67.21-73.51	7.34	-25.6%-29.8%
7	Sep_25_2020	64.77 (0.2%)	67.73 (1.4%)	67.96 (-0.1%)	67.08	66.48(0%)	69.47(6.6%)	65.67-69.73	0.7(1.1)	1	%	1%	0%	1.06%	4.6%	60	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1%)	6	-0.6	1.1	N/A	69.91(0.64%)	66.99-72.3	9.19	-26.8%-27.8%
8	Sep_24_2020	64.65 (0.2%)	66.78 (1.4%)	68.04 (-0.8%)	67.21	66.31(0%)	65.17(-2.96%)	63.64-66.77	0.7(0.1)	-1.8	-1.6%	0.6%	0%	1%	3.3%	52	1.3	Confirmed Correction	Range(0.5%)	7	-0.7	1.2	N/A	66.43(1.94%)	65.17-67.47	5.57	-31.3%-19.9%
9	Sep_23_2020	64.89 (0.2%)	66.13 (1.4%)	68.58 (-0.5%)	68.03	67.69(0%)	67.16(-2.27%)	65.77-68.62	0.9(0.5)	-1.1	-0.5%	1%	0%	0.98%	1.9%	54	1.4	Correction	Range(1.6%)	7	-0.6	1.3	Uptrend	68.2(1.55%)	66.81-68.8	6.92	-29.2%-23.6%
10	Sep_22_2020	64.82 (0.2%)	65.17 (1.2%)	68.92 (0.5%)	68.19	68.11(0%)	68.72(-0.78%)	66.67-69.19	1(0.9)	1.4	-0.1%	1.6%	0%	0.92%	0.5%	59	1.4	Uptrend Consolidation	Range(1.9%)	7	-0.6	1.6	Growing Uptrend	69.94(1.77%)	68.12-70.39	6.3	-27.5%-26.5%

11	Sep_21_2020	64.6 (0.2%)	63.79 (0.8%)	68.55 (1.7%)	68.26	68.38(0%)	69.26(-0.87%)	65.46-69.48	1(1.1)	2.1	0.6%	0.9%	0%	0.66%	-1.3%	56	1.4	Growing Uptrend	Range(1.9%)	7	-0.6	1.6	N/A	69.12(-0.2%)	66.78-71.03	8.22	-27%-27.5%
12	Sep_18_2020	64.43 (-0%)	63.07 (0.6%)	67.43 (3.2%)	67.75	68.27(0%)	69.87(2.92%)	66.1-70	0.8(1.3)	4.2	1.5%	0.7%	0%	0.38%	-2.1%	52	1.3	Growing Uptrend	Range(2.2%)	7	-0.6	2.1	Uptrend Reversal	71.37(2.14%)	70.1-72.21	13.21	-26.3%-28.6%
13	Sep_17_2020	64.28 (-0.2%)	62.46 (0%)	65.32 (3.3%)	66.09	68.14(0%)	67.89(-1.38%)	64.6-70.9	0.4(0.9)	3.2	2.4%	0.5%	0%	-0%	-2.8%	49	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(3.6%)	7	-0.7	2.1	Rebound	66.09(-2.65%)	68.11-65.23	13.28	-28.4%-24.9%
14	Sep_16_2020	64.24 (-0.4%)	62.05 (-0.4%)	63.26 (3.9%)	63.77	67.22(0%)	68.84(2.93%)	66.73-70.04	-0.1(1.1)	2.8	4.3%	0.8%	0%	-0.44%	-3.4%	46	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(5.1%)	6	-0.7	1.4	Downtrend Consolidation	68.22(-0.9%)	67.26-68.54	11.4	-27.4%-26.7%
15	Sep_15_2020	64.11 (-0.6%)	61.4 (-1%)	60.87 (4.3%)	61.18	64.04(0%)	66.88(5.04%)	64.23-68.41	-0.7(0.7)	2.1	5%	0.3%	0%	-0.86%	-4.2%	51	1.3	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(5.3%)	5	-0.8	0.8	Downtrend Consolidation	66.12(-1.13%)	66.02-66.16	9.1	-29.5%-23.1%

16	Sep_14_2020	64.21 (-0.8%)	61.1 (-1.4%)	58.36 (0.4%)	58.69	60.32(0%)	63.67(7.3%)	60.12-63.85	-1.6(-0.1)	2.6	2.5%	-0.5%	0%	-1.24%	-4.8%	49	1.3	Confirmed Rebound	Range(2%)	4	-0.9	0.8	After Bottom	62.56(-1.74%)	60.82-63.99	8.93	-32.9%-17.2%
17	Sep_11_2020	64.46 (-1%)	61.39 (-1.4%)	58.15 (-1.9%)	57.26	58.32(0%)	59.34(3.09%)	57.45-59.51	-2(-1.2)	0.5	0.2%	-1.2%	1.5%	-1.28%	-4.8%	40	1.4	Rebound	Range(-1.3%)	4	-1	0.1	Growing Downtrend	58.17(-1.97%)	57.12-60.15	4.82	-37.4%-9.2%
18	Sep_10_2020	64.9 (-1%)	62.22 (-1.2%)	59.25 (-2.4%)	58.31	57.05(0%)	57.56(1.16%)	56.87-60.32	-2.1(-1.7)	-1.1	-0.8%	-1.7%	3%	-1.16%	-4.1%	35	1.3	Growing Downtrend	Range(0.5%)	4	-1.1	-0.7	Bottom	58.54(1.7%)	56.62-59.82	7.99	-39.3%-5.9%
19	Sep_9_2020	65.52 (-1%)	63.5 (-1%)	60.68 (-2.1%)	60.33	56.19(0%)	56.9(4.71%)	54.51-57.19	-2(-2.2)	-1.2	-4.3%	-1.4%	1.4%	-0.94%	-3.1%	34	1.2	Breakdown	Lower(-4.3%)	5	-1.1	-0.7	Growing Downtrend	56.33(-1%)	55.52-58.2	9.36	-40%-4.7%
20	Sep_8_2020	66.16 (-1%)	64.49 (-0.8%)	61.96 (-3.3%)	62.15	59.56(0%)	54.34(-13.19%)	54.21-58.6	-1.8(-3.4)	-1.8	-5.7%	-1.7%	0%	-0.82%	-2.5%	30	1.1	Breakdown	Range(-0.8%)	5	-1.2	-1.2	Growing Downtrend	54(-0.63%)	53.2-56.05	17.71	-42.7%-0%

21	Sep_4_2020	67.08 (-0.8%)	65.67 (-0.6%)	64.07 (-1.5%)	63.96	64.47(0%)	62.6(-3.45%)	59.01-65	-1.3(-1.6)	-0.6	-0.8%	-0.7%	0%	-0.66%	-2.1%	36	0.9	Growing Downtrend Downtrend Pop	Range(0.2%)	5	-0.9	-1.1	Downtrend	62.29(-0.49%)	61.83-63.37	11.65	-34%-7.6%
22	Sep_3_2020	67.65 (-0.8%)	66.08 (-0.4%)	65.05 (-1%)	64.6	64.75(0%)	64.84(0.19%)	64.3-69.35	-1.1(-1)	-0.1	0.6%	-0.5%	0%	-0.58%	-2.3%	41	0.9	Rebound	Range(0.1%)	4	-0.9	-2.4	Growing Downtrend	64.44(-0.61%)	64.02-65.32	14.31	-31.6%-11.4%
23	Sep_2_2020	68.08 (-0.8%)	66.38 (-0.4%)	65.69 (-1.7%)	65.07	63.46(0%)	64.72(2.21%)	61.38-64.89	-1(-1.1)	-0.9	-1.8%	-0.6%	0%	-0.5%	-2.5%	45	1	Growing Downtrend	Lower(-2.4%)	3	-1	0.2	Growing Downtrend	64.37(-0.54%)	63.96-65.25	9.87	-31.8%-11.2%
24	Sep_1_2020	68.61 (-0.8%)	66.71 (-0.2%)	66.85 (-0.9%)	66.41	64.45(0%)	63.32(-2.42%)	62.5-64.5	-0.9(-1.4)	-1.7	-2.5%	-0.8%	0%	-0.4%	-2.8%	38	1.2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-2.1%)	3	-1	0	Downtrend	63.1(-0.35%)	62.64-64.17	8.2	-33.2%-8.8%
25	Aug_31_2020	69.35 (-0.8%)	67.12 (-0.2%)	67.43 (0%)	67.78	66.68(0%)	64.89(-3.85%)	62.54-67.2	-0.7(-1.1)	-0.9	-1.2%	-0.8%	0%	-0.36%	-3.2%	42	1.2	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.1%)	3	-0.9	0.1	Downtrend	64.73(-0.25%)	64.34-65.62	15.27	-31.6%-11.5%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Strength	RSI	Momentum	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

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