Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ GBTC: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Nov. 17, 2020

Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. May. 31, 2017 - Tue. Feb. 14, 2023)

(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)
GBTC latest price $20.1600 (6.89%) ($19.3300 - $20.3500) on Tue. Nov. 17, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.95% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $20.1600(6.89%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GBTC advances 4.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GBTC advances 10.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GBTC advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
BLOK(63%)    ARKG(30%)    ARKK(30%)    IBUY(30%)    LIT(30%)
Factors Impacting GBTC price   GBTC will decline at least -1.975% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-26%)    VXX(-18%)    VIXM(-9%)    XLRE(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.975% (StdDev 3.95%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $18.55(8.68%)
10 Day Moving Average   $17.76(13.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $16.44(22.63%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   90%
Market Cap   $N/A

Acts as Open-End Investment Fund/Unit Trust

$. GBTC price fluctuates within 10.4% (three month std-dev: 3.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 21 Average positive next day return: 4.78%(43%) Average negative next day return: -3.69%(57%) Sample size 21 Average positive next three day return: 8.39%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -8.23%(67%) Sample size 21 Average positive next weekly return: 7.09%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -10.93%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_17_2020	12.73	16.44	17.76	18.55	18.6	19.2	20.16(6.89%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	70	230	37	169	16.48	64%	0.87	95	3.95%	0	2.2	83	1.6
2	Nov_16_2020	12.62	16.09	17.28	17.82	17.95	18.33	18.86(5.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	43	170	17	122	11.71	62%	0.72	90.1	4.05%	0	1.7	70	1.6
3	Nov_13_2020	12.53	15.79	16.95	17.47	17.48	18	17.96(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	36	210	10	115	8.93	61%	0.64	84.2	4.02%	0	1.3	74	1.5
4	Nov_12_2020	12.45	15.52	16.69	17.38	17.18	17.57	18.24(4.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	42	120	14	126	9.92	61%	0.65	84.3	4.01%	0	1.6	76	1.1
5	Nov_11_2020	12.37	15.23	16.39	17.19	17.08	16.96	17.53(6.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	40	-70	12	125	9.92	55%	0.57	83.8	4.01%	0	1.4	71	1.8

6	Nov_10_2020	12.3	14.96	16.12	16.86	17.03	16.79	16.51(-3.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	30	-70	3	110	6.33	55%	0.49	82.8	4.1%	0	1	69	1.7
7	Nov_9_2020	12.24	14.76	16.04	16.64	16.79	17.2	17.09(-2.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	40	200	11	126	15.01	55%	0.49	84.5	4.11%	0	1.4	79	1.4
8	Nov_6_2020	12.18	14.53	15.77	16.32	16.46	17.27	17.54(1.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	52	370	27	128	10.27	51%	0.58	83.2	4.28%	0	1.8	85	1.7
9	Nov_5_2020	12.11	14.24	15.45	15.89	15.94	16.38	17.27(8.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	49	200	23	125	14.95	53%	0.58	83.1	4.3%	0	2	85	1
10	Nov_4_2020	12.04	13.97	15.17	15.49	15.5	15.66	15.87(2.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	38	70	9	124	7.99	49%	0.42	81.8	4.21%	0	1.3	82	0.8

11	Nov_3_2020	11.99	13.72	15.01	15.3	15.34	15.5	15.42(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	35	80	2	135	6.49	49%	0.42	76.6	4.2%	0	1.1	82	-0.6
12	Nov_2_2020	11.94	13.5	14.81	15.35	15.19	15.33	15.51(0.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	46	30	9	155	6.15	49%	0.34	77.5	4.22%	0	1.3	80	-1.4
13	Oct_30_2020	11.9	13.29	14.55	15.12	15.17	15.17	15.38(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	44	10	9	147	6.95	51%	0.42	74.2	4.26%	0	1.3	74	-1.7
14	Oct_29_2020	11.85	13.06	14.27	14.92	14.98	15.06	15.26(2.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	40	50	4	146	7.72	51%	0.25	70.5	4.26%	0	1.4	79	-1.4
15	Oct_28_2020	11.82	12.84	13.99	14.79	14.83	15.17	14.91(-4.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	44	170	8	152	11.48	51%	0.25	70	4.26%	0	1.4	76	-2.6

16	Oct_27_2020	11.79	12.64	13.72	14.67	14.72	14.91	15.67(8.97%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	60	100	23	171	14.29	59%	0.34	71.9	4.22%	0	2.1	87	-0.5
17	Oct_26_2020	11.75	12.4	13.38	14.2	14.42	14.5	14.38(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	46	90	12	147	9.81	56%	0.34	68.9	4.58%	0	1.6	85	-0.4
18	Oct_23_2020	11.71	12.23	13.21	13.89	14.1	14.53	14.38(-1.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	50	260	17	148	6.83	56%	0.17	66.3	4.58%	0	1.8	77	1.1
19	Oct_22_2020	11.69	12.06	12.94	13.5	13.7	14.33	14.63(2.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	54	370	25	141	10.84	56%	0.34	59.6	4.59%	0	2.4	81	1.2
20	Oct_21_2020	11.65	11.88	12.66	13.06	13.16	13.67	14.3(7.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	50	290	24	128	16.04	57%	0.26	51.3	4.59%	0	2.5	80	0.9

21	Oct_20_2020	11.62	11.69	12.32	12.64	12.7	13.08	13.31(3.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	220	13	102	7.32	55%	0.17	38.7	4.54%	0	2.1	75	0.6
22	Oct_19_2020	11.6	11.58	12.08	12.46	12.48	12.64	12.83(3.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	90	5	88	6.48	55%	0.17	31.7	4.53%	0	1.8	71	0.7
23	Oct_16_2020	11.58	11.49	11.92	12.43	12.36	12.32	12.43(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	-40	5	90	3.54	55%	0.09	28.1	4.53%	0	1.5	66	1.4
24	Oct_15_2020	11.57	11.45	11.76	12.29	12.38	12.31	12.45(2.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	-20	4	79	3.9	55%	0.17	27.6	4.53%	0	1.7	65	1.6
25	Oct_14_2020	11.55	11.41	11.61	12.18	12.31	12.39	12.2(-1.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	80	10	72	4.8	55%		27.7	4.55%	0	1.4	64	2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.