Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ FEX: Intraday Forecast Similar Waves Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Nov. 25, 2020

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Fri. Jan. 15, 2021)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $70.8400 (0.77%) ($70.7170 - $71.0720) on Wed. Nov. 25, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Trend Pattern   Oversold
Trend Narrative   The Top
Average Daily Price Swing   $2.5 (3.72% one month average)
Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.38% (three month average)
Weekly Trend Force   0.5% (StdDev 1.38%)
Daily Moving Force   0.8%
Correction Force   Weak (0%)
Trend   0.58%
Latest Price   $70.8400(0.77%)
Forecasted Low Price   70.63(-0.3%)
Forecasted High Price   71.97(1.6%)
Direction of Next Movement   Higher(1.3%)
% Change Needed to Confirm Correction   2.1% (69.37)
% Change Needed for Trend Reversal   3.1%
Hourly Trend 1.1% [$70.51(0.76), $69.89(0.39)]
Complacency   7
Intraday Reversal Probability   N/A.
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 3.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (71% probability)
BWX(15%)    INDA(14%)    HYG(11%)    CNCR(10%)    EWP(10%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.1% in a week (14% probabilities).
XBI(-16%)    BJK(-16%)    XLRE(-15%)    XRT(-12%)    VIXM(-12%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan   Not Available

Valuation to SPY 1.3

Relative Volatility 2 (options are extremely expensive)

Market Trend Strength   0.4% (StdDev 1.38%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Next Hour Price   $70.84(0%)
5 Day Moving Average   $69.79(1.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $69.18(2.4%)
20 Day Moving Average   $67.2(5.42%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   15.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Option Sentiment

$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. FEX price fluctuates within 3.72% (three month std-dev: 1.38% one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. FEX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201225

i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low
1	Nov_24_2020	67.2 (0.4%)	69.18 (0.9%)	69.79 (0.4%)	69.89	70.51(0%)	70.84(0.77%)	70.72-71.07	1.3(1.5)	3.9	0.8%	0.5%	0%	0.58%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.3%)	7	91	2.7	1.3	1.5	Uptrend	72.12(1.8%)	70.18-72.95	0.03	0%-15.4%
2	Nov_23_2020	66.93 (0.4%)	68.83 (1.1%)	69.53 (0.5%)	69.5	69.75(0%)	70.3(1.41%)	69.74-70.31	1.3(1.4)	1.4	0.5%	0.5%	0%	0.62%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1%)	7	77	2.6	2.6	1.3	Uptrend	71.59(1.84%)	69.68-72.42	0.02	0%-14.5%
3	Nov_20_2020	66.7 (0.3%)	68.42 (1.2%)	69.2 (0.5%)	69.33	69.26(0%)	69.32(-0.01%)	69.13-69.57	1(1.2)	-1.1	0.2%	0.5%	0%	0.62%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.7%)	7	76	2.4	2.2	1.4	Relative Overbought	70.41(1.57%)	67.94-72.43	0.03	-0.3%-12.9%
4	Nov_19_2020	66.53 (0.3%)	68.02 (1.2%)	68.89 (0.3%)	69.15	69.25(0%)	69.33(0.25%)	68.62-69.5	1.1(1.3)	0.7	0.1%	0.6%	0%	0.6%	Growing Uptrend Correction	Higher(0.7%)	9	64	2.3	1.3	1.7	Growing Uptrend	70.65(1.91%)	68.83-71.11	0.03	-0.3%-13%
5	Nov_17_2020	66.38 (0.3%)	67.49 (1.1%)	68.7 (0.4%)	68.82	69.39(0%)	69.16(-0.55%)	69.05-69.87	1.2(1.4)	0.5	0.4%	0.7%	0%	0.54%	Uptrend Dip	Higher(1.4%)	8	59	2.2	-0.6	1.8	Growing Uptrend	70.3(1.65%)	68.7-70.7	0.05	-0.5%-12.7%

6	Nov_16_2020	66.23 (0.4%)	66.86 (1%)	68.46 (0.6%)	68.6	69.04(0%)	69.54(1.27%)	69.06-69.73	1.5(1.8)	2.2	0.8%	0.7%	0%	0.46%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.5%)	7	62	2	-0.6	1.9	Growing Uptrend	70.51(1.39%)	68.96-70.89	0.03	0%-13.3%
7	Nov_13_2020	66.05 (0.5%)	66.3 (0.9%)	68.04 (0.8%)	68.32	68.25(0%)	68.67(1.36%)	68.25-68.87	1.3(1.6)	1.1	0.4%	0.6%	0%	0.38%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1%)	6	60	1.8	-0.6	1.1	Growing Uptrend	69.41(1.08%)	68.24-69.71	0.03	0%-11.9%
8	Nov_12_2020	65.96 (0.5%)	65.8 (0.7%)	67.52 (0.8%)	68.01	68.16(0%)	67.75(-0.94%)	67.53-68.5	1(1.2)	-0.7	0.2%	0.3%	0%	0.28%	Uptrend Dip	Higher(1%)	6	56	1.7	-0.4	0.7	Uptrend	68.16(0.61%)	67.47-68.46	0.03	-0.9%-10.4%
9	Nov_11_2020	65.86 (0.5%)	65.54 (0.5%)	66.99 (1.4%)	67.57	68.39(0%)	68.39(0.65%)	68.29-68.67	1.6(1.7)	0.7	1%	0.3%	0%	0.22%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(1.3%)	5	58	1.6	-0.5	1.3	Uptrend	68.68(0.42%)	67.93-69	0.05	0%-11.4%
10	Nov_9_2020	65.7 (0.5%)	65.3 (0.1%)	66.06 (1.6%)	66.74	67.87(0%)	67.95(0.76%)	67.8-69.65	1.5(1.6)	1.1	1.7%	0.4%	0%	0.08%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(2.1%)	5	53	1.5	-0.6	-0.4	N/A	67.72(-0.34%)	66.78-68.48	0.04	0%-10.7%

11	Nov_5_2020	65.51 (0.4%)	65.03 (-0.4%)	65 (1.1%)	65.58	66.76(0%)	67.44(2.05%)	66.98-67.76	1.4(1.5)	2	1.6%	0.3%	0%	-0.08%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1.9%)	5	52	1.4	0.2	0.9	N/A	67(-0.65%)	66.47-67.44	0.04	0%-9.9%
12	Nov_4_2020	65.32 (0.3%)	64.83 (-0.8%)	64.32 (0.8%)	64.4	65.6(0%)	66.09(1.54%)	65.38-66.91	0.6(0.7)	2.3	1.3%	0.1%	0%	-0.18%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1.4%)	4	47	1.3	0.1	0.5	Downtrend	65.93(-0.24%)	65.91-65.97	0.02	-1.5%-7.7%
13	Nov_3_2020	65.19 (0.3%)	64.79 (-1.1%)	63.84 (-0.1%)	63.83	64.4(0%)	65.08(2.07%)	64.68-65.52	-0(-0.1)	1.3	1.1%	-0.1%	0%	-0.26%	Uptrend Reversal	Higher(1%)	3	38	1.4	1.2	-1.6	Correction	63.84(-1.9%)	63.64-64.66	0.04	-3%-6%
14	Nov_2_2020	65.11 (0.3%)	64.88 (-1.1%)	63.9 (-0.8%)	63.46	63.21(0%)	63.76(1.8%)	63.29-64.06	-0.9(-1.1)	0.7	-0.4%	-0.3%	0%	-0.26%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-0.7%)	3	39	1.4	0.8	-2.5	Correction	62.41(-2.12%)	62.19-63.28	0.04	-5%-3.9%
15	Oct_30_2020	65.05 (0.4%)	65.17 (-0.8%)	64.43 (-1%)	63.89	63.26(0%)	62.63(-2.24%)	62.2-63.31	-1.8(-2)	-2.5	-1%	-0.4%	0%	-0.16%	Growing Downtrend	Range(-0.3%)	3	36	1.4	0	-2.2	Correction	61.55(-1.73%)	61.36-62.28	0.03	-6.7%-2%

16	Oct_29_2020	65.02 (0.5%)	65.58 (-0.4%)	65.05 (-0.5%)	64.82	63.72(0%)	64.07(0.62%)	63.1-64.09	-0.8(-0.9)	-1.2	-1%	-0.2%	0%	-0.04%	Downtrend Pop	Lower(-1.2%)	4	52	1.3	1.6	-2.4	Correction	63.46(-0.95%)	63.33-63.96	0.05	-4.5%-4.4%
17	Oct_28_2020	64.91 (0.5%)	65.83 (-0%)	65.38 (-0.7%)	65.31	64.52(0%)	63.67(-2.63%)	63.17-63.95	-0.9(-1.1)	-1	-1.5%	-0.4%	0%	0.04%	Downtrend Reversal	Range(-0.6%)	5	55	1.4	2.3	-2.4	Correction	63.33(-0.54%)	63.23-63.73	0.03	-5.1%-3.7%
18	Oct_26_2020	64.87 (0.6%)	66.19 (0.5%)	65.85 (-0.2%)	65.88	65.92(0%)	65.39(-1.51%)	64.79-66.11	0.4(0.4)	-2.7	-0.3%	0%	0%	0.18%	Downtrend Reversal	Range(0.5%)	6	67	1.5	1.1	-0.2	Uptrend Consolidation	65.32(-0.11%)	65.21-65.63	0.04	-2.6%-6.5%
19	Oct_23_2020	64.71 (0.5%)	66.26 (0.6%)	65.99 (-0.1%)	66.07	66.11(0%)	66.39(1.03%)	66.21-66.7	1.1(1.2)	-0.4	0.2%	0.2%	0%	0.26%	Growing Uptrend	Range(0.4%)	5	76	1.9	0.8	0.8	Uptrend Consolidation	65.99(-0.6%)	65.73-66.78	0.15	-1.1%-8.2%
20	Oct_22_2020	64.57 (0.4%)	66.17 (0.7%)	66.05 (-0.3%)	66.04	65.84(0%)	65.71(-0.02%)	65.43-66.34	0.6(0.7)	-0.3	-0.3%	0.2%	0%	0.34%	Correction	Range(-0.1%)	6	79	2.2	-0.1	0.6	Uptrend Consolidation	65.53(-0.27%)	65.28-66.28	0.03	-2.1%-7.1%

21	Oct_21_2020	64.46 (0.4%)	66.06 (0.9%)	66.22 (-0.2%)	66.28	66.04(0%)	65.72(-0.48%)	65.64-66.44	0.6(0.7)	-1.5	-0.2%	0.2%	0%	0.44%	Correction	Range(0.2%)	7	81	2.5	0.7	0.1	Uptrend	66.59(1.32%)	65.48-67.06	0.1	-2.1%-7.1%
22	Oct_20_2020	64.4 (0.5%)	65.87 (1%)	66.36 (-0.3%)	66.41	66.23(0%)	66.04(-0.08%)	66.03-66.68	0.7(0.8)	-4.1	-0.3%	0.3%	0%	0.52%	Correction	Range(0%)	7	84	2.5	1.2	0.2	Uptrend	67.06(1.55%)	65.74-67.63	0.04	-1.6%-7.6%
23	Oct_19_2020	64.23 (0.5%)	65.63 (1.1%)	66.58 (0.1%)	66.51	66.52(0%)	66.09(-0.87%)	65.84-67.06	0.8(0.9)	-2.3	-0.1%	0.4%	0%	0.58%	Uptrend Consolidation	Higher(0.7%)	7	73	2.6	1.9	1.2	Uptrend	67.29(1.82%)	65.78-67.94	0.04	-1.5%-7.7%
24	Oct_16_2020	64.05 (0.4%)	65.37 (1.2%)	66.55 (0.4%)	66.7	66.59(0%)	66.67(0.11%)	66.65-67.08	1.2(1.4)	1	0.2%	0.6%	0%	0.6%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.8%)	8	79	2.6	1.1	0.9	Growing Uptrend	68.2(2.29%)	66.22-68.69	0.07	-0.7%-8.6%
25	Oct_15_2020	63.86 (0.3%)	64.92 (1.2%)	66.32 (0.7%)	66.5	66.51(0%)	66.6(0.26%)	65.7-66.79	1.3(1.5)	1.4	%	0.6%	0%	0.54%	Growing Uptrend	Higher(0.6%)	9	62	2.4	0.9	0.7	Growing Uptrend	67.88(1.92%)	66.12-68.32	0.06	-0.8%-9%
i	Date	ema20(Trend)	ema10(Trend)	ema5(Trend)	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	ActualPriceRange	BBV	Hourly BBV	Daily Moving Force	Weekly Trend Force	Reversal Force	Trend	Trend Pattern	Next Direction	C	RSI	Scale	RV	VIXCD	Trend-Narrative	NextDay PriceTarget	NextDayPriceRange	Volume millions	To High-Low

Click to see actual return for next trading day.