Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 9, 2020

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $261.5800 (1.51%) ($255.9100 - $268.0000) on Thu. Jul. 9, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.49% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $261.5800(1.51%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 3.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(73%)    MCHI(71%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(60%)    VWO(60%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.245% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-22%)    UUP(-19%)    VXX(-6%)    TBT(-1%)    UNG(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.245% (StdDev 2.49%)
Hourly BBV 1 ()
Intraday Trend -1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $243.87(7.26%)
10 Day Moving Average   $231.31(13.09%)
20 Day Moving Average   $226.59(15.44%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   36.8%
Market Cap   $701.747b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 5.73% (three month std-dev: 2.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 40 Average positive next day return: 4.01%(63%) Average negative next day return: -1.89%(38%) Sample size 40 Average positive next three day return: 6.31%(48%) Average negative next three day return: -3.54%(53%) Sample size 40 Average positive next weekly return: 8.62%(48%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.49%(53%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_9_2020	206.84	226.59	231.31	243.87	247.34	256.96	261.58(1.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	363	310	391	277	36.69	72%	0.19	51.1	2.49%	1	2.7	72	0.8
2	Jul_8_2020	206.44	224.5	227.44	234.75	237.38	245.02	257.68(8.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	260	260	285	183	39.65	72%	0.18	42.4	2.48%	1.8	3.3	70	0.9
3	Jul_7_2020	206.06	222.47	224.15	226.35	228.5	237.72	236.51(-1.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.5	240	310	274	137	16.47	67%	0.16	33.4	2.24%	0.5	2.1	62	0.7
4	Jul_6_2020	205.74	221.53	222.52	222.05	222.62	229.75	240(7.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	3.1	280	230	328	134	33.44	70%	0.02	27.3	2.23%	1.4	3.2	69	1.1
5	Jul_2_2020	205.69	220.41	220.39	217.2	217.18	219.28	223.6(3.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	83	70	106	15	17.96	65%	0	20.2	2.12%	1.7	0.8	58	0.8

6	Jul_1_2020	205.69	220.13	220.31	216.91	216.09	215.49	215.95(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-27	-30	-25	-31	11.75	57%	-0.01	41.2	2.08%	1.1	-1.1	54	0.6
7	Jun_30_2020	205.71	220.29	221.16	218.96	217.89	215.08	215.7(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-81	-100	-93	-43	12.94	57%	0	76.6	2.12%	0.6	-1.2	42	0.3
8	Jun_29_2020	205.71	220.28	221.91	221.57	220.97	216.69	215.02(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-117	-140	-142	-42	13.1	57%	-0	91.2	2.13%	-0.8	-1.1	46	-0.2
9	Jun_26_2020	205.72	219.96	222.25	222.85	224.02	220.7	215.71(-2.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-94	-90	-117	-25	19.29	57%	-0.03	95.5	2.18%	-1.2	-0.8	49	-0.9
10	Jun_25_2020	205.78	219.63	222.56	223.84	224.66	225.25	222.16(-1.79%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-36	30	-50	7	14.84	60%	0.01	77.2	2.18%	-1.2	0.4	54	-0.3

11	Jun_24_2020	205.76	218.59	221.94	224.11	224.76	227.34	226.22(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	82	90	89	62	12.1	64%	0.02	59.3	2.17%	0.4	1	61	-0.7
12	Jun_23_2020	205.72	217.38	221.62	223.72	223.9	224.06	228.75(3.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	56	10	57	52	18.3	61%	0.08	46.2	2.25%	1.9	1.4	63	-0
13	Jun_22_2020	205.56	216.04	220.73	222.49	223.12	222.18	221.41(0.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-23	-20	-35	15	13.26	58%	0.07	36	2.25%	-0.8	0.7	62	-0.2
14	Jun_19_2020	205.41	215.01	220.5	221.62	223.42	223.75	220.64(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	30	22	45	19.53	58%	0.06	28.6	2.26%	-2.4	0.7	70	-0.8
15	Jun_18_2020	205.29	214.56	220.4	221.02	221.41	224.07	223.54(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	55	90	51	68	10.44	56%	0.06	33.1	2.25%	-0.3	1.1	72	-0.7

16	Jun_17_2020	205.17	214.15	219.83	219.36	219.7	223.09	224.25(0.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	116	110	120	105	12.48	58%	0.07	38.6	2.27%	0.7	1.3	79	-0.9
17	Jun_16_2020	205.03	213.72	219.23	219.24	217.86	218.76	222.62(2.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	64	10	53	98	17.17	52%	0.09	50.6	2.3%	1.2	1.2	75	-1
18	Jun_15_2020	204.85	213.29	218.4	218.86	218.03	216.31	217.03(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	1	-70	-24	74	17.35	50%	0.01	57.8	2.5%	0.4	0.5	71	-1.3
19	Jun_12_2020	204.82	212.65	217.49	219.26	218.8	216.96	217.64(1.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-28	-70	-60	70	12.08	48%	-0	59.7	2.56%	-0.6	0.7	73	-1.4
20	Jun_11_2020	204.83	211.86	216.56	219.64	219.14	219.75	215.24(-3.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-1	10	-27	78	15.53	46%	-0.04	62.5	2.71%	-1.9	0.4	53	-2.6

21	Jun_10_2020	204.91	211.11	215.16	220.2	219.89	220.64	223.68(1.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	67	20	56	100	13.25	51%	0.01	64.9	2.71%	1.9	1.5	54	0.9
22	Jun_9_2020	204.89	209.93	212.94	219.18	218.68	218.52	220.72(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	13	-10	-2	56	14.12	49%	0.08	67.1	2.76%	1.1	1.4	52	1
23	Jun_8_2020	204.73	209.12	211.05	217.91	218.24	219.15	219(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	30	35	51	12.58	49%	-0.04	75	2.79%	-0.8	1.3	52	1.6
24	Jun_5_2020	204.82	208.21	209.12	215.42	216.3	218.83	219.55(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	65	90	71	48	11.96	47%	-0.02	72.5	2.82%	0.8	1.5	64	2
25	Jun_4_2020	204.86	207.05	208.22	212.99	212.85	217.33	218.04(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	102	150	115	62	14.71	49%		60.6	2.82%	0.4	1.5	65	1.6
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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